Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 50

 

Thursday: Bright sunshine. High: 68 

  

Thursday Night: Moonlit Sky. Low: 50

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 67

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

 

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Discussion: 

     December appears to get a slow start as mild weather continues for Central Missouri. With the passage of a low pressure system and associated warm front, cool nights and slightly warmer days will have you keeping your jacket handy. Some clouds will stick around through tonight, ultimately clearing and leaving us with clear nights and sunny days through the rest of the week. With no precipitation anticipated for the forecast period, calm weather will monopolize the rest of our week as we begin preparing for finals.

-Noblitt

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Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 12/1/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

    The 12Z run of the GFS20 aided in this forecast. This model was chosen due to the GEFS plumes current temperatures and previous night's low matching closer to recorded surface temperatures. Both the GFS20 and NAM40 were somewhat sloppy with MSLP when compared to the NWS current surface map. A relatively calm and clear sky is expected for our weather for the rest of this week. 

    On the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence, a jet streak is currently curving southward from the NW CONUS-Canadian border into the Mississippi Valley. This jet streak and its associated divergence aids in the current cloud cover. At around 03Z Thursday, this edge of the jet streak straightens and remains north of our area for the rest of the forecast period. Aloft, strong westerly winds dominate our region, leaving most divergence to our north or south. 

    A small band of circulation, seen on the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, passed through Columbia at 19Z. This circulation contributes to our current cloud cover. After this band drifts past, no significant areas of circulation will be located over the Middle Mississippi Valley for the rest of the forecast period.

    Looking at the 700-mb plot of heights, relative humidity, and vertical velocity, the rest of this week will be fairly dry. After a band of moisture moved through this morning, all significant areas of moisture remain to our north, leaving us with a clear sky and no anticipated precipitation.

 On the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperatures, northwesterly flow currently dominates Missouri. This pattern continues through 03Z Friday, when a small ridge shifts our winds to the southwest. These winds remain until 18Z Friday when our winds begin to shift clockwise from the west to the north. A HPS trekking across Nebraska into Iowa continues the clockwise wind shift, resulting in an easterly wind at the end of the forecast period. Veering winds and solenoids seen on the plot of MSLP and 1000-mb to 500-mb thickness from 0Z to 9Z Thursday help to contribute to the warming temperatures.

    With the passage of the current cloud cover, GFS20 soundings show very little saturation after tonight. No precipitation is expected over the forecast period.

   Future forecasters should keep an eye on the upper-level jet streak to our west on Sunday. 

- McMullen