Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6:00am Thursday

Tuesday: Cloudy. Rain beginning early afternoon. High:53

 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Rain transitioning to snow. Low: 19

 

Wednesday: Cloudy. Snow High: 19 

Wednesday Night :  Cloudy. Heavy Snow Likely. Low: 13

 

Thursday: Cloudy. Snow tapering off in the afternoon.High: 17

 

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Discussion:  

A winter storm associated with a low-pressure system to the south is set to impact the entire region beginning Tuesday night continuing into Thursday. The National Weather Service has placed Columbia under a Winter Storm Warning. Rain will begin in the late morning Tuesday and will persist into the evening Tuesday night with temperatures falling considerably throughout the day. Once the sun sets, the transition from rain to snow will begin as temperatures continue to plummet. Freezing rain and sleet will mix in with the rain between 7pm and 9pm Tuesday night. This wintry mix will persist until the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday. By 1am to 3am Wednesday, Columbia should see all snow. Overnight accumulations will likely total 3 to 4 inches. Snow will continue into Wednesday afternoon when a brief dry period sets in. High temperatures Wednesday will struggle to get out of the teens. Don't be fooled by the cessation of snow because more will be on the way overnight Wednesday into Thursday. A second wave of moisture will make its way out of the southwest. This second round will come harder and faster. Overnight, snow will likely be heavy at times resulting in fast accumulations and low visibility. An additional 5 to 8 inches is likely by sunrise Thursday morning. Snow will begin to taper off shortly after sunrise with lingering lighter snow and flurries continuing into Thursday afternoon. Accumulations Thursday during the day are likely to be small. When all is said and done, expect significant snow accumulations ranging from 8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible if heavy bands set up.

 - Travis

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 2/1/2022 11:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:  

A major winter storm is on it's way to the Midwest for Tuesday night and sticks around until Thursday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning describing the hazards associated with this storm.  These hazards include low visibility, cold temperatures, ice, and 8-12 inches of snowfall. GFS was the main model used for this forecast period, as the SREF plumes had more spread whereas the GEFS plumes seemed to be agreeing.

The polar and sub tropical jet streams at 200 mb sandwich the Midwest on Tuesday, but begin to line up Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, providing a way for moisture to travel into the middle Mississippi valley. A ridge over central CONUS moves out Tuesday night. A LPS moves over central CONUS Wednesday, which causes increased divergence to move into the area along with a deepened trough which, when paired with the strong upper level winds, is conducive to rain and snowfall production.

A circulation makes its way over the central CONUS Tuesday night. At the 500-mb level, this vorticity sticks around through Thursday, which aids in providing needed lift for precipitation development.

Abundant moisture exists at the 700-mb level. This moisture sticks around Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, providing needed moisture for rain and snow development. Lack of moisture will not be an inhibitor for this storm. In addition to moisture, there is also vertical velocity that moves into the Midwest on Tuesday, again, providing needed lift for rain/snow growth. Isentropic uplift is also evident in the lower levels of the atmosphere, along with plenty of deep moisture. An amplified ridge at this level moves directly over Missouri Wednesday, providing a good idea for the track and timing of this winter storm.

Winds at the 850 mb level begin to shift from south easterly to north westerly Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, which is evidence for a cold front moving through the Midwest. This will bring temperatures down overnight on Tuesday to well below freezing. Sfc level winds also appear to be the same. This will help in lower ground temperatures, allowing snow to stick. Frontogenesis will allow for even more snow to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Soundings show deep moisture Tuesday, meaning rainfall for the majority of the day. As a cold front passes and the temperatures begin to drop, freezing rain appears to take over as the temperature and moisture lines creep closer to freezing. Wednesday, temperatures drop enough for ample snow to develop, aided by a deep and well saturated dendritic growth zone. Moisture begins to leave the Midwest Thursday morning, allowing for a much needed break in precipitation.

-Cade