Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 51 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 34

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 70

 

 
 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 44

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 80

 

 

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Discussion: After near-record lows, temperatures will finally warm up as we head into the weekend! Some clouds are expected across the area over the next few days, but overall sunny conditions will prevail, leading to very comfortable and pleasant fall weather.

-Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis

Date Issued: 10/19/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

     

       Looking ahead at a warming trend as the upper-level trough that was responsible for near-record low temperatures across the region finally moves off to the east. Enough moisture will be present to keep a few clouds around through the end of the week. It is worth noting the discrepancy between the GFS's and NAM's placement of the subtropical jet and incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest as we head toward the weekend; this will influence flow and temperatures across MO. The GFS seems to handle the interaction between the subtropical jet and polar jet more reasonably, so it was relied on more for this forecast.

     In the upper levels, strong northerly flow will persist through Friday morning as the trough moves east. The subtropical jet pushes further north into southwest MO and increases divergence as flow becomes more zonal near the end of the period. A weak, upper-level shortwave digging from the northwest early Thursday morning will aid in the development of a few clouds, though this cloud layer is not expected to be very deep, per forecast soundings.

     Mid-level warm air advection becomes widespread across an area from TX to MO by Thursday morning, corresponding to more westerly to southwesterly flow. The shortwave will move through Thursday morning, but due to a lack of moisture in the mid levels and low levels, no precipitation is expected. Heading into the weekend, a stronger shortwave will be present over KS and OK, so future forecast shifts will need to watch its progression and monitor upcoming precipitation chances.

 

     A surface high over OK will push off to the east, transitioning low-level winds to southwesterly by Wednesday morning. This will aid in the warming trend we expect to see over the next few days. Additionally, this will be responsible for moisture advection from the Gulf as seen in a northward surge of surface dewpoints >50F. This, coupled with the latter shortwave could provide an opportunity for precipitation... once again, something future shifts should watch.

- Shaw