Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 29
Thursday Night: Increasing cloud cover. Low: 23
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 44
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 32
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50
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Discussion:
Unfortunately, temperatures remain below freezing for today, however, warmer weather is on the way with a chance to reach into the 50's this Saturday. It is important to note there will be high winds impacting Columbia the next couple days, as we may experience gusts up to 30mph. Make sure to hold on to those hats during your weekend hikes!
-Hefner
Forecasters: Hefner, Macko, Samson
Date Issued: 1/26/2023 11:00 AM CDT
Following Wednesday's snow there will be high winds on Friday and Saturday. For forecasting, a mixture of NAM and GFS models were used.
On Thursday the positively tilted trough that was noted on previous forecast shifts will persist in the CWA until early Friday when it will push out eastward and will bring zonal flow into the CWA. The zonal flow will produce calm weather throughout Thursday; however, the calm weather will not continue into Friday.
During Friday a center of low pressure will be moving through the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Ontario. The low-pressure system will bring high winds out of the west. Analysis of SREF ensembles suggest high-sustained wind speeds on Friday. Additionally, for this Friday, expect an uptick in cloud cover as well. The aforementioned low pressure system in Canada will bring significant relative humidity values (70% to 90%) into the CWA from 12z to 15z. The relative humidity is accompanied with noticeable vorticity on the 500 mb level lasting from 12z Friday to 00z Saturday. Combining these observations with GFS sounding data showing saturation at the 700 mb level from 12z to 15z, it is likely mid-level clouds will form. Additionally, the low pressure system will bring high winds out of the west. Overnight on Friday, soundings show saturation around the 850 mb level as well as some negative Omega, expect low level clouds Friday night into Saturday morning.
Rounding out the forecast on Saturday, another low-pressure system forming along the Central Plains will continue the streak of high winds; however, because of the location of the low relative to the CWA, winds will be out of the southwest, raising temperatures into the fifties.
Future forecasting shifts should be aware of increasing low-level saturation and rising negative Omega values that could lead to light precipitation overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. As Saturday night turns into Sunday morning, temperatures drop below freezing which could lead to light snow. However, there is a dry layer between the saturated area of the atmosphere and the surface, so watch how that develops to determine whether it will snow. Additionally, during Saturday night, using surface winds it can be seen that a cold front will pass through the CWA.
-Samson
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