Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday: Rainy. High: 45

 

Tuesday Night: Scattered Showers. Low: 42

Wednesday: Cloudy, Scattered T-storms. A few may be severe High:70

Wednesday Night: Scattered T-storms. Low: 63

Thursday: Showers Possible, Otherwise Cloudy. High: 68

 

  

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Discussion: 

Lots of rain is on the way! Spring time thunderstorms are beginning to start. Temperatures will stay above average as the week progresses. Temperatures will return to average after a cold front moves through Thursday afternoon.

-Meier

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Forecasters: Meier, Simmons

Date Issued: 03/21/2023 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Rain chances will be the biggest problem the area will face as the week progresses. The GFS was the main model used because it has been better with temperatures along with handling the times of frontal passages well. The NAM was off in terms of lower level moisture and frontal passage timing which is why we decided to not use it for the forecast.

 

Currently, a shield of stratiform rain off to the southwest will track towards us as the day goes by. This rain is supported by upper-level divergence associated with a shortwave. Vorticity advection ahead of the shortwave coincides with the rain that will move through. The LLJ becomes enhanced today over Arkansas and southern Missouri helping aid in moisture transport. Eventually, lower-level moisture will move out in the late afternoon. The rain expected today will be lighter which bringing rainfall totals to 0.06'' to 0.25". Temperatures will not drop off by much tonight as there will be lots of clouds and warm air advection still occurring overnight. 

On Wednesday, a warm front will move north through central Missouri at 18Z. Surface dewpoints reach into the 60s after the warm front passage, increasing the chances of severe weather. Wednesday is going to be mostly cloudy, however; drier air will be moving down from the upper-levels which could bring sun. If some clearing occurs, severe thunderstorms become more likely and the convective temperature may be reached. CAPE values were consistently reaching over 1000J. This coupled with LI values of more than -5 and a total-totals over 50 will bring a severe possibility. A strong LLJ forms overnight over central Missouri, which will aid in energy in storm development. Although this is not a likely event, severe weather remains marginal late Wednesday night.

On Thursday, an upper-level trough digs through the western 1/3 of the CONUS. This will help the formation of a strong jetstreak from kansas to Wisconsin. This jetstreak will bring central Missouri upper-level divergence Thursday evening. A surface cold front attached to a low passes through mid-day Thursday. With a convective atmosphere still present, showers will still be possible especially ahead of the cold front. Precipitation totals will be from a trace to 0.06''. The daytime highs will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage, but consensus remains that the daytime high will be reached in the early afternoon. 

Although rain chances are lower during the day Thursday, signs point to another round of rain moving in Thursday night. While the axis of heaviest rain appears to stay to the south, the next forecast group should monitor any progressive northward shift of the precipitation.

-Meier