Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 51

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 77

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 50

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 80
 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 51

  

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Discussion:

A rinse and repeat forecast! Temperatures are expected to remain steady in the upper 70's, light winds should make for several pleasant days in a row. This is the perfect time to plant those gardens and do some spring cleaning!

-Russell 

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 4/10/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Temperatures will remain mostly the same through the entirety of the forecasting period as a large ridge continued to build overhead leaving us with light southwesterly winds and spring like conditions. Models showed strong consistency between each other and thus, all were taken into consideration when making this forecast.

A weak shortwave (Sw) located off to our west is bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Kansas city metro as well as portion of western Missouri. Here in Central Missouri, a lack in mid-level moisture and weak forcing is limiting us to scattered cumulus clouds to break up the sunshine. This shortwave will continue to shift south as we move through Today and Tuesday, its general movement should slow as a upper-level ridge begins to develop across the Intercontinental west that will cut off our disturbance across portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a high pressure currently parked out over the Appalachian mountains will continue to strengthen but gradual shift to the southeast placing us in a southwesterly flow. This will aid in a slight increase in our temperatures Tuesday and help reduce the overall cloud cover.

As the upper level ridging continues to maneuver into central CONUS, a low pressure will shunted off to the south and park along the Gulf coast in an configuration known as a Rex Block. This will be the dominate pattern over the next several days securing us with warm, calm weather. Mid-level moisture will still be present as we move into Wednesday morning aiding in the development of scattered cumulus and low level clouds. As the day progresses, the remnant moisture should move safely to the south promoting a clear sky during peak heating hours come Wednesday. This paired with slightly stronger surface winds in the 10-15kt range means another small increase in high temperatures as widespread 80's are likely across the state. We begin to see the breaking down of out Rex block Wednesday night but due to the stubbornness of the upper air pattern, we will remain under the influence of the upper-level ridging through Thursday and only then do we begin to see indications of a pattern shift.

Future forecasters should take note of the deepening trough that is expected to move onshore of the West Coast Thursday into Friday. The overall strength of this system will have significant impacts on how long we will remain under the influence of this long wave ridging. If the trough comes in weaker, or further north we may see an extended period of warm dry conditions which may increase drought concerns.

-Russell