Monday, May 13, 2019

Monday -  Mostly sunny. High: 64-68

Monday Night -  Mostly clear. Low:44-48

Tuesday -  Mostly sunny. High:70-74

Tuesday Night -  Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. Low: 60-64

Wednesday -  Clouds clearing in the morning becoming mostly sunny. High: 78-82 

Thanks to for the icons!

The cooler temperatures remain for Monday, but that will change going forward this week. Today, high pressure dominates mid-MO giving us plenty of sunshine for the next 24-36 hours. By Tuesday night, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region along a warm front but will move out by Wednesday morning. After this warm front passes, temperatures will be some the warmest temperatures we've seen this year as 80s are in the forecast.

Forecasters:  Hirsch
Issued: 11:30 a.m.; 13 May 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The main issue for this forecast period is the temperatures and potential for rain on Tuesday night. WPC recommended a general model blend so have used the 12 Z GFS for this forecast period. 

At the start of the forecast period a surface anticyclone is situated over MO which will shift off to our east over the next day and half. The high pressure will allow for calm conditions with little moisture in the region allowing for plenty of sunshine. As it moves east, Columbia shifts to a southerly flow which will  allow for WAA leading to clouds developing late afternoon/early evening on Tuesday. The moisture will prove important as a low currently in N. Dakota shifts south and east into central Iowa where a warm front will develop and move through between 00 Z and 09Z. This area will prove the initiation spot for showers and thunderstorms. The reason for thunderstorms will be due to this dynamic lifting, which is weak with omega values of -6 mb/s at its strongest point. CAPE is also about 700-1000 J/kg allowing for some thunderstorms to develop.  The front will slowly clear out during the day and with the frontal passage, temperatures will quickly warm up and stay that way for the remainder of the week as 80s are likely.

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