Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Tonight - Cloudy.  Rain with thunderstorms. Low: 50-54

Thursday - Early morning rain. Becoming mostly cloudy. High: 58-62


Thursday Night -  Clouds begin to clear. Low: 40-44

Friday - Partly sunny with clouds building in the afternoon. High: 58-62

Saturday - Morning showers. Mostly cloudy  High: 62-66   

Thanks to for the icons!

The active weather pattern continues through tonight as we have yet another chance for heavy rain and storms. Light showers will linger throughout the afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move into the area. As the cold front gets closer the chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms increases. This round of rain will be present through the early morning hours before clearing out by mid-morning on Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler than average and these cooler temperatures will remain throughout the forecast period. Clouds will slowly decrease throughout Thursday allowing our low temperatures for Thursday night to drop into the low 40's. Some sunshine will be present Friday morning helping to warm temperatures a bit, but clouds begin to build into the area ahead of the next system that will move through late Friday, early Saturday. Light showers can be expected Saturday morning but should clear out by the afternoon leaving mostly cloudy skies.

Forecasters: Bongard and Sumrall
Issued: 1:34 p.m.; 8 May 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

A jet core builds overhead this evening as the forecast area transitions from the ridge over the southeastern CONUS to the upper level trough digging its way through the Great Plains. Central Missouri lies in the warm sector of a frontal system with a persistent warm front lingering to the north over Iowa and the circulation of low pressure over western Nebraska. Vorticity advection from the west-northwest will push vorticity values over Columbia up overnight tonight with PWAT values ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 inches according to both NAM and GFS model soundings. CAPE values near 1000 J/kg will linger overhead through the late evening hours tonight. With this is mind conditions are favorable for precipitation to develop in the form of showers and thunderstorms as forcing from the encroaching cold front to the northwest provides the mechanism necessary for another round of rainfall tonight. Consensus is lacking on accumulation totals tonight as GFS holds moisture values higher lending to an inch of rainfall accumulations while NAM is going with a trace of rain for Columbia with higher totals to the southeast. GFS has been more accurate in predicting rain totals this week though the lack of reflectivity on current radar scans is disconcerning for precipitation chances tonight. The cold front pushes through Columbia between 09Z and 12Z tomorrow morning effectively ending the threat for precipitation as low level winds back around swiftly to the northwest.

Colder, drier air filters into the region Thursday morning behind the cold front stabilizing our atmosphere overhead. Low level clouds may linger with some low level moisture still residing across the Ozark Plateau. Temperatures will be markedly cooler Thursday with high temperatures only in the upper 50's. Clouds hang on Thursday night as the low temperatures drops to an unseasonably cool value in the lower 40's behind the late season cold front passage. While PWAT values are not impressive enough to garner precipitation development, clouds will remain over the area through Thursday night into Friday.

Friday will be another unseasonably cool day with high temperatures in the 50's.  Some clearing may occur Friday afternoon as continued northerly flow at the surface will continue to slowly erode moisture out of the area. Friday night lows will only drop to maybe 50F as low level wind pattern begins to reorient to the south. A more zonal flow aloft greets Saturday as the jet core sandwiched between the trough over eastern Canada and the trough over the eastern CONUS squeezes eastward toward the Atlantic Ocean. A storm system will swing down out of central Canada into the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon but should not impact Columbia before the end of the forecast period. Look for increasing clouds as that system approaches from the north and the slimmest of precipitation chances Saturday afternoon with highs near 65F.

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