Friday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36
Saturday - Partly cloudy. High: 58-62
Saturday Night - Mostly cloudy with light rain. Low: 44-48
Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 58-62
Monday - Partly cloudy. High:54-58
Discussion: Due to the cold front passage on Thursday, Friday night temperatures will be low, close to freezing.
This will be the coldest it gets during our forecast period. As we move further away from the cold front passage
and the sun begins to shine, temperature will begin to rise back up into the upper 50’s, possibly reaching the low
60’s. Saturday night will be the only chance for rain during this forecast period, but only 0.3 inches is to be expected.
After this, things will clear back up again, making the end to the weekend and beginning of the week quite peaceful.
This will be the coldest it gets during our forecast period. As we move further away from the cold front passage
and the sun begins to shine, temperature will begin to rise back up into the upper 50’s, possibly reaching the low
60’s. Saturday night will be the only chance for rain during this forecast period, but only 0.3 inches is to be expected.
After this, things will clear back up again, making the end to the weekend and beginning of the week quite peaceful.
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Forecasters: Balkissoon, Savoy, Heaven
Issued: 5:00pm: May 8, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC model diagnostics suggests GFS or NAM for this forecast period so we decided to go with
GFS. We also used SREF plumes for average temperatures and precipitation amounts.
GFS. We also used SREF plumes for average temperatures and precipitation amounts.
Currently, and for the rest of the forecast period, we remain under the upper level jet at 250mb,
with west and northwest winds influencing our weather. A zonal flow pattern will be what we see
until Monday when a shortwave trough moves over the region, we will be upstream of the trough
axis.
with west and northwest winds influencing our weather. A zonal flow pattern will be what we see
until Monday when a shortwave trough moves over the region, we will be upstream of the trough
axis.
At 500mb, on Saturday at 21Z we become under the influence of a shortwave trough which will
be bringing high vorticity values to our area. This vorticity will dissipate and pick back up again
throughout the whole state, around Sunday at 9Z when the base of this trough moves through
the area. However, this is now long lived, these high vorticity values clear out by 12Z. During this
time will be the best possible chance for rain, which we can see as we move down to the lower
levels.
be bringing high vorticity values to our area. This vorticity will dissipate and pick back up again
throughout the whole state, around Sunday at 9Z when the base of this trough moves through
the area. However, this is now long lived, these high vorticity values clear out by 12Z. During this
time will be the best possible chance for rain, which we can see as we move down to the lower
levels.
For the 700mb- Omega and RH maps, we noted that on Sunday 3Z-9Z, there are high RH values.
Throughout Missouri on Monday, at different locations there are high RH values. These were also
considered in conjunction with vertical velocity. It was noted that presently, 18Z on Friday, there
is no vertical velocity. Sunday 0Z- 9Z however, we do see relatively high vertical velocities of 4-6
microbars per second. We consulted the GFS skew-T at these respective times and it was
noted that at 0Z we have neither lift nor saturation, at 3Z we have a saturated environment but not
at the surface indicative of clouds observed at 725 to 550mb level. At 9Z, whilst there were UVM,
there was not a saturated environment. Considering the SREF cumulative precipitation output,
we did observe that there were 0.3 inches of expected precipitation.
Throughout Missouri on Monday, at different locations there are high RH values. These were also
considered in conjunction with vertical velocity. It was noted that presently, 18Z on Friday, there
is no vertical velocity. Sunday 0Z- 9Z however, we do see relatively high vertical velocities of 4-6
microbars per second. We consulted the GFS skew-T at these respective times and it was
noted that at 0Z we have neither lift nor saturation, at 3Z we have a saturated environment but not
at the surface indicative of clouds observed at 725 to 550mb level. At 9Z, whilst there were UVM,
there was not a saturated environment. Considering the SREF cumulative precipitation output,
we did observe that there were 0.3 inches of expected precipitation.
Precipitation should be in the form of rainfall. This after reviewing the 850mb- temperature map
which showed that whilst temperatures are reduced during our forecast period, they are above
freezing. To account for our colder temperatures currently, we note that the winds are coming in
from our North. Throughout the weekend, winds are also coming in from the NW.
which showed that whilst temperatures are reduced during our forecast period, they are above
freezing. To account for our colder temperatures currently, we note that the winds are coming in
from our North. Throughout the weekend, winds are also coming in from the NW.
.
Thanks for bringing MU weather forecasts to us, including the nerdy details! The best of luck to all of the forecasters as this semester wraps up in the most unusual way anyone can remember. I wish you all success in your next steps...whether you are continuing your education at MU, going on to graduate school or entering the workforce. MIZ-ZOU!!!!!
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