Monday, January 27, 2020

Monday- Mostly cloudy. Reduced visibility due to fog. High: 36-40

 Monday Night - Clear skies. Fog developing into the night. Low: 28-32

Tuesday - Cloudy. Reduced visibility due to fog. High: 34-38

Tuesday Night- Overcast. Possible snow after midnight. Low: 28-32

Wednesday- Overcast skies. Light snow showers possible through the day. High: 30-34

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Fog is still affecting most of the viewing area this morning with temperatures also below freezing. However, as we go through the day temps will rise and the fog should clear out and be replaced by low-level clouds. Tonight skies will clear but the threat of freezing fog still exists overnight into the morning hours. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with clouds increasing through the day. By Tuesday night skies will be covered and light snow is possible after midnight. Wednesday morning snow may start and continue through the day as temps remain around freezing.

Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am January 27 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The GFS, GEFS, and SREF were mainly used for this forecast period. With clear skies, snow on the ground, and light winds, there was no doubt that fog would occur this morning. Due to these conditions sticking with us into tomorrow morning, fog is very likely then as well. Soundings show saturation at the surface through 18Z today. Once the fog lifts and temperatures rise above freezing, models indicate a low-level cloud deck (800-900mb) forming through the afternoon and early evening. GEFS and SREF agree that temperatures should reach the upper 30s today. We went a tad cooler for high temps tomorrow as a very light northerly breeze sets in.

Tuesday afternoon, we watch the fog finally lift, but saturation begins to occur from the surface up to 300mb around 06Z on Wednesday. Each model we used agree that temperatures and dew points stay below freezing from the surface up, so that eliminates the possibility for mixed precipitation. The 540gpm thickness line remains to our south, so our focus is light snow showers through Wednesday afternoon. A closed-off surface low pressure system is tracking to our south through Arkansas. Relatively high absolute vorticity tracks along the backside of this surface low. This vorticity at 500mb is associated with a shortwave directly behind the track of the surface low. Future forecasters will need to watch the track of this low, specifically the backside. We need to watch for winds shifting out of the south, allowing for moisture to funnel into Mid-Missouri and how this interacts with the possible shortwave.

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