Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Fog possible later on. Low: 22-26

Thursday - Cloudy. Fog possible in the morning. High: 32-36

Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26


Friday - Mostly cloudy skies. High: 40-44 

Saturday - Partly cloudy skies. High: 42-46

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Snow has moved out of central Missouri, but clouds will stick around into tomorrow night. Tonight into tomorrow morning we may be seeing some fog develop, due to calm winds and snow on the ground. By Friday clouds will start to roll out, which will start a warming trend. Saturday will bring more comfortable temperatures then what we have been seeing, as more sun breaks out.
Forecasters: Pauley, Vanderpool, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: January 29, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The small storm system that caused snow this morning has since moved off to the east, taking the snow with it. As of 21z, WPC surface analysis shows a rather inactive pattern in place over the CONUS, with a surface low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface high was noted in southern Minnesota, with a second (weaker) surface high in central Kansas. Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s across most of Missouri, with cloud cover obscuring most of the state.

Model data for this forecast was derived primarily from the GFS, which seems to have a decent handle on the overall synoptic pattern across the CONUS. Our forecast was also supplemented with input from the GEFS and SREF, primarily to aid in determining temperatures and precipitation (or lack thereof).

For tonight, GFS forecast soundings (particularly those between 09 UTC - 15 UTC Thursday) advertise light winds and very high humidity near the surface. Since mid Missouri already has several inches of snow still on the ground, this will provide a great setup for fog. Therefore, we have placed the mention of fog in the official forecast. Temperatures should slide down into the lower to middle 20s, with GFS, GEFS, and SREF guidance all supporting this. Soundings also indicate saturation through and just above the boundary layer, which should lead to a fairly persistent low cloud deck throughout the night and into the day tomorrow.

Tomorrow, the low cloud deck will persist. GFS forecast soundings support this due to saturation in the lower levels. Additionally, saturation is forecast between 500mb and 300mb, potentially leading to a higher cloud deck as well. The clouds along with snow cover will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 30's. Clouds will persist into Thursday night.

Friday, a disturbance will drop down from the north, as advertised by the GFS. 500mb vorticity and 700mb vertical velocity would indicate lift, but we will not have enough moisture to have precipitation. However, mostly cloudy skies are likely. GFS forecast soundings support veering winds, which indicate warm air advection. It is weak warm air advection, but will help warm our temperatures up into the lower to middle 40's. Future shifts should monitor this, as more cloud cover would lead to lower temperatures, but stronger warm air advection may cause our temps to get a little higher. The warming trend looks to continue into Saturday, with sunshine finally making a solid appearance and warming us up into the 40s.

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