Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Snow Flurries after midnight. Low: 28-32

Wednesday - Overcast. Snow in the morning hours. High: 30-34

 Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26

Thursday - Mostly cloudy skies. High: 32-36

 Thursday Night - Mostly Cloudy Skies. Low: 28-32

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Cloudy skies this afternoon will continue into the overnight hours. Along with the cloudy skies, a low pressure system that is currently over northern Texas will make its way east into Oklahoma and eventually to our south in Arkansas. This low pressure system will bring with it the potential of some light snow here in the Columbia area for tonight into tomorhttps://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.883323500000074&lon=-92.23933019999998#.XjC_BqZMFUQrow morning. A majority of the snow looks to remain off to the south more near the Lake of the Ozarks region. After the snow moves out, skies will remain mostly cloudy for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with seasonal temperatures. Thursday and Thursday night appear to be much of the same, however temperatures are trending to be a touch warmer.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: January 28, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The topic of today's discussion will be the potential for snow overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, and how much we could potentially get.

The current set up is that the 250mb flow is zonal with the subtropical jet off to the south in Louisiana and Mississippi stretching through the southeast CONUS. However, there is an occluded low is off to the southwest in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. This will be the set up for tonight which will bring the potential for some snow overnight into tomorrow morning. However, due to the low being near the Texas panhandle, it appears to be too far south for any significant snowfall to occur. Other factors for this reason is that the majority of the 700mb RH needed for and precipitation to occur will remain off to the south and southeast of the area. Also the UVM needed to produce this precipitation will also remain off to the south and southeast in Oklahoma and Arkansas. The forecast area is north of the 540mb thickness line and the 12z GFS soundings do indicate the column becoming saturated between 9pm tonight to 3am Wednesday, so the potential still is there. SREF plumes however don't paint a very good picture for the possibility of snow for the area either with the highest snow POP is only 45%, and the rest of the time the POP is less than 40%. With that in mind, the potential for snow still remains. Accumulations though look to be light on the range of a dusting to near 0.5in. What is likely is that the skies will remain overcast throughout the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain seasonal as well. 12z GFS soundings column beginning to dry out between the hours of 3pm and 6pm Thursday. This indicates a break in the clouds for Thursday evening and a potential for the sun peaking out which will make the temperatures a tough warmer that Wednesday.

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