Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Tonight - Partly Clear. Low: 20-24

Thursday- Partly Sunny. High: 26-30.

Thursday night - Partly Clear. Low: 6-10.

Friday- Cloudy. High: 28-32. 

Saturday- Cloudy. High: 30-34.

Thanks to for the icons!

The primary focus of this forecast is on the colder than normal temperatures associated with the multiple cold fronts moving through during the forecast period. The sun has finally returned but it won't feel like it as cold air keeps being reinforced by another cold front that pushes in midday on Thursday. This coupled with partly clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to bottom out into the single digits on Thursday night. Clouds build back on Friday ahead of a second cold front. This one brings some moisture with it and while models depict snow, the main areas of concern remain north of the Columbia area. Chances are low and little if any accumulation is expected at this point.

Forecasters: Hirsch and Travis
Issued: 3:00 p.m., January 23, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
Visible satellite imagery shows the thick band of clouds associated with the maturing cyclone swiftly exiting to the east resulting in partial clearing of the sky. Mid-Missouri will remain underneath a longwave trough that will govern the region’s weather. GFS 500 hPa vorticity shows a shortwave entering the area 00 UTC Friday. GFS soundings observe little to no moisture or lift with this particular wave, so precipitation is not expected. The dominant longwave trough will keep the polar jet stream sitting off to our south. This will allow for extremely cold arctic air to creep down from Canada. With Thursday night being the first clear night after FROPA, temperatures are expected to bottom out then in the single digits. 850 hPa flow will continue to be out of the NW with the LLJ picking up Thursday evening over Missouri advecting the cold air into the region. Clouds return Friday, with GFS Skew-T’s showing a well saturated atmosphere above 500 hPa. Clouds persist for the remainder of the forecast period. Soundings show somewhat of a zipper going on through the day Friday, however precipitation is not likely for three reasons. 1. As the lower atmosphere moistens up the upper atmosphere starts to dry out by Friday evening. 2. GFS soundings show a significant dry later around 925 hPa. 3. Sounding data shows little to no omega values to support any precipitation. Saturday skew-ts continue to show a dry layer at the surface, but ice nucleation is possible so it could moisten up and allow for light snow to fall, but confidence is low at this point. However it bears watching as a shift in location of the low could impact amounts.

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