Thursday, January 24, 2019

Tonight - Mostly Clear. Low: 4-8

Cloudy. Scattered afternoon and evening snow flurries. High: 26-30.

Friday night - Cloudy. Flurries before midnight. Low: 14-18.

Mostly Cloudy. High: 30-34. 

Mostly Cloudy. High: 32-36.

Thanks to for the icons!

If you haven't bundled up, be sure to as single digit temperatures are expected for tonight. Key take away...its gonna be cold tonight. Wind won't help either as wind chill factors will be in the negative single digits. Friday's high won't be any better than today's as another clipper moves through. However, unlike the one that moved through today, this one has some moisture to it so flurries are expected. The best time would be late afternoon Friday till about early Saturday morning. The biggest areas of snowfall will be along the Iowa/Illinois/Missouri border, far way from us. However, due to the moisture, flurries are not ruled out, however little to no accumulation is expected. The good news is that the weekend sees a warm up as we finally break the freezing mark for the weekend thanks to southerly winds and a high pressure to our north. The sun however will remain elusive so clouds remain.

Forecasters: Hirsch
Issued: 3:30 p.m., January 23, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
An amplified H25 trough remains over the central CONUS which will allow for below normal cold temperatures to remain through the forecast. The GFS 12 Z run shows multiple shortwaves moving through COMO which will further work to reinforce the cold air. The current cold front moved through at 12 Z as indicated by KCOU wind shifts from the SW to the NW and CAA has limited highs for today. Overnight lows from 00 Z to 12 Z on the 25th were trended down further into the single degrees as a mostly cloudless night is expected due to lack of moisture behind the front. This coupled with N/NW winds will create wind chill temps in negative values. Another H85 shortwave is shown moving through around 18 Z tomorrow. This system however does have enough moisture to produce light flurries. Skew-Ts indicate deep layer moisture from 300-850 mb with 5 mb/s lift confined to from the surface to the cloud base at 850. This dry layer is a fair amount to overcome with dewpoint depression being about 5 C during a prime 6 hour window for snow (21-03 Z). By the time it fully saturates, at 00 Z on the 27th, upper level moisture has dissipated. In addition, the location of the H85 shortwave, over the IA/MO border, leaves us out of the area for accumulation. The presence of moisture and cold temperatures will allow for flurries to fall, but little to no accumulation is expected. QPF and SREF back this up as they indicate about 0.25" falling.

After the passage of the clipper on Friday night, a high pressure moves across the plains which will scoot along the northern MO border. This will leave us in southerly flow which will allow for the temperatures to break the freezing mark for the weekend. The position of the high will allow mid level-moisture to move in which keep the a mix of sun and clouds throughout the weekend.

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