Tuesday, January 29, 2019


Tonight - Becoming partly cloudy. Gusty winds. Low: (-8) - (-4).

Wednesday - Becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. High: 4-8.

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 1-4

Thursday -  Mostly cloudy. High's near 30.

Friday -  Partly sunny. Highs in the low 40's.

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We are having a cold day here in mid-Missouri as we continue to be under wind chill warnings/advisories. Overcast skies have dominated and flurries have been present throughout the day. We have been on a steady decline in temperatures since around noon today with our high peaking in the mid 20’s. As we go into tonight the skies will start to clear up and allow for some radiational cooling, meaning we will not have a cloud layer that can act as a “blanket” and help retain the heat at the surface. This combined with some strong sustained winds will permit us to drop to sub-zero temperatures overnight with wind chills well in to the -20’s. We will not get much of a chance to warm up during the day tomorrow with real feel temperatures remaining negative even during tomorrow’s high temperature, causing the wind chill warnings/advisories to be extended until 3pm Wednesday. Clouds will stick around into Wednesday night, allowing some heat to be trapped and aid the warming trend that will start Thursday bringing high’s almost up to freezing and then into the 40’s Friday and even into the 50’s over the weekend where you might actually get the chance to put the winter coat away for a few days. 

Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., January 28, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
Sanborn Field hit a high temperature of 27 today with help from some sunshine we had for most of the morning. This helped reach that high until clouds rolled in around noon with a cold frontal passage, bringing in more cold air advection and substantial northwest winds. Through tonight, winds will continue to be blustery with the LLJ picking up at 850mb with winds out of the NW at 20-25kts that is mixing down to the surface. The primary concern with this forecast peroid is the dangerously cold temperatures that will settle in tonight through Wednesday night as the arctic air mass continues to move south.  The NWS has issued a Wind Chill Warning from 6pm tonight until 3pm Wednesday.  Wind Chill values could reach as low as 25 degrees below zero.   

GFS soundings keep us cloudy through most of the night but has the column drying out a bit. This suggests some clearing early tomorrow moring but does not last long.  Soundings also suggest a chance of flurries tomorrow afternoon with the column moistening up and a good amount of omega forcing in the DGZ between 18z and 00z Thursday.

Clouds stick around Wednesday night as mid-levels stay moist but lower levels appear to remain pretty dry.  Thursday and Friday begins the warm up trend as the arctic air mass begins to push off to the east with the parent high. Ridging begins to approach us from the west toward the end of the week. Winds begin to veer, aiding warm air advection and more tolerable conditions around mid-mo. 

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