Monday, January 28, 2019


Tonight - Partial clearing in the evening. Windy. Low: 10-14.

Tuesday - Becoming cloudy in the morning. Windy. High: 20-24.

Tuesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Winds dying down overnight. Low: (-8) - (-4).

Wednesday - Becoming cloudy. High: 4-8.

Thursday -  Cloudy. High: 28-32.

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As expected, temperatures have fallen considerably since this morning. Unfortunately for Columbia, this trend will continue through Wednesday afternoon. Dangerously cold, arctic temperatures have begun to invade the area from Canada. Tuesday will see another cold and cloudy day with highs in the mid 20s. Tuesday night into Wednesday temperatures will bottom out at near record lows in the negative single digits. The NWS in St. Louis has put Boone County under a Wind Chill Warning that will go into effect beginning 6pm Tuesday evening and extend until 2pm Wednesday afternoon. High winds will make these bitter temperatures feel even worse as wind chills are expected to hit the negative teens and twenties. Make sure you bundle up if you have to be outside; in this kind of bitter cold, frostbite can affect exposed skin in under 15 minutes. Thursday will see a slight warmup with temperatures climbing back up to near freezing.

Forecasters: Danaher, Travis, Brown, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., January 28, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
Sanborn Field has already hit today's high temperature at an anomalous 4:14 a.m. Columbia has already seen evidence of FROPA with winds shifting from WSW to WNW as well as a big increase in wind speeds since sunrise. The models chosen were a blend of the GFS and European with above average confidence. According to the WPC, the NAM showed a slight shift of the shortwave north when compared to the other model solutions. The cold front will continue to sink south throughout the evening. As we enter the exit region of the jet, a saturated layer will persist below 700 hPa and clouds will remain throughout the day. On Tuesday afternoon, GFS soundings show a brief period of increased moisture and lift below 700 hPa, but a dew point depression of 5 degrees at the sfc. This will lead to the potential for a brief period of flurries, but no impacts are expected. Continuing onward, extremely dry air will set up over the Midwest entering Tuesday night.

GFS soundings do hint at the possibility for partial clearing overnight Tuesday with winds at the sfc still blowing at 20-25 kts. The potential for partial clearing could result in greater radiational cooling and therefore Wednesday morning temperatures could be lower than models are anticipating.

Winds will continue to blow with substantial force and will continue to shift from the WNW to the NW as the sfc low centered over the Missouri-Iowa-Illinois border will propagate off to the northwest. The LLJ will pick up as well as 850 hPa winds also show a shift to the NW as the much talked about arctic air mass descends down from Canada. Mid-Missouri will experience strong CAA through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to bottom out at near record lows in the negative single digits. The strong winds associated with the descending vortex will are expected to make wind chills feel closer to -15 to -20 Tuesday night. Next, it appears that temperatures will slightly warm up as winds begin to veer to the WSW by Thursday morning. Thursday's temperatures increase back up to the 30s as we end this forecast period.


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