Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wind Advisory until 7pm

Wednesday Night -  Windy. Afternoon showers ending, clearing skies overnight. Low 48-52.

Thursday - Clouds increasing throughout the day. Windy. High 50-54

Thursday Night -  Mostly cloudy. Low 32-36.

Friday - Clouds clearing in the afternoon becoming mostly sunny. High 42-46.

 Saturday - Sunny.  High: 46-50.

Thanks to for the icons!


We are under a wind advisory until 7 pm tonight and it is likely this will be extended through tomorrow as our winds will strengthen ahead of the cold front moving through the area tomorrow night. For the rest of the afternoon and evening we can expect showers with a rumble of thunder possible. These showers should clear out in the overnight areas as some of the moisture begins to dry out. Low level moisture will provide clouds throughout most of the day but due to strong winds these clouds will be moving fast and could break up and let some sunshine through. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the cold front but will drop back to around freezing Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Behind the front the atmosphere will  begin to dry out and we will see clouds clearing throughout the day Friday leaving mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Sunshine will linger for the rest of the forecast period and it will continue to feel like spring.
Forecasters: Bongard and Sumrall
Issued: 2:49 p.m.March 13, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Rain this afternoon will quickly come to an end by 00Z Wednesday evening as the main precipitation shield associated with the large developing low pressure system over the central Plains pushes east of Columbia and dry slotting fills into the region from the southwest. The main weather feature for tonight and tomorrow morning will be the high winds that impact central Missouri. As the low pressure system spills off the Front Range and across Kansas this evening a tightly packed pressure gradient surrounding a 970 mb low will slide into the region from the west-southwest promoting surface winds of 20-25 knots with higher gusts. For this reason NWS has issued a Wind Advisory through this evening with a High Wind Watch set to go into effect Thursday morning. Overnight lows will only fall back into the low 50's in response to warm air advection on strong southwesterly winds overnight.

Thursday will be a mostly cloudy, windy day as mid levels provide sufficient provide sufficient moisture for cloud development. Forcing will be in place out ahead of the cold front pushing through the Plains during the day but with so much dry slotting happening in the column precipitation will be hard to come by. Continued strong southwesterly flow in the low levels accompanied by the aforementioned clouds will keep high's Thursday in the low 50's. Model sounding analysis is in agreement on an early evening fropa when winds back around to the west-northwest and begin to drop temperatures back in to the 30's. Model disagreement does exist however in a chance for precipitation early Friday morning when NAM promotes some wrap around moisture filling into the profile creating snow flurries for central Missouri. GFS is less aggressive with this moisture and holds a dry layer at the surface. Regardless of model the atmosphere overhead will "de-saturate" by mid morning as a post frontal weather regime fills into the Midwest. High temperatures Friday will struggle into the mid 40's as skies clear out in the afternoon.

Low temperatures and lighter northwesterly winds Friday night as the post frontal regime continues. A meandering high pressure system trekking slowly across the southern Plains will keep our low level flow northwesterly as it presents its northeastern flank to us overnight Friday. Models disagree on placement of this high Saturday leading to some disagreement with moisture and temperatures in central Missouri. GFS continues the eastward trek of the high into the Lower Mississippi Valley keeping the profile dry and temperatures into the upper 40's. NAM however retrogrades the high southward and allows some moisture to infiltrate the Midwest from the northwest. This will lead to a more cloudy, slightly colder day Saturday with its high temperatures for central Missouri only in the low 40's. Will need to consult future model runs to tack down a better idea of temperatures for the region Saturday afternoon.

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