Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Tonight - Clouds begin to clear. Low: 33-37

Thursday -
 Clear Skies. High: 50-54

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 33-37

Friday - Clear skies throughout the day with clouds moving in overnight High: 54-58

Saturday- Mostly cloudy. High 58-62

Thanks to for the icons!

Calm and mild weather will be present throughout the forecast period. As a low pressure system moves off the the east, we will see the clouds beginning to clear behind it. Winds out of the north will help keep our temperatures in the lower 50's through Friday. There will be a slight warming trend as winds shift from northerly to southerly overnight Friday into Saturday. These southerly winds will be responsible for increasing moisture bringing clouds back into the forecast on Saturday. Overall we are in store for some nice spring weather.

Forecasters: Bongard, Sumrall, and Hirsch
Issued: 2:39 p.m.March 20, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

The narrow upper level ridge over the western Plains will keep the forecast area in its upstream flow tonight and tomorrow. Moisture values overhead will continue to slowly diminish over the course of Wednesday night as the atmosphere stabilizes. Low level winds will swing to a more northerly course after midnight in response to the frontal system pushing through the region. This system is associated with the low pressure embedded in the large upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS. These northerly winds will help dip temperatures into the mid 30's tonight.

Thursday morning will see the departure of any vorticity associated with the aforementioned low pressure system as the flow swing the boundaries in concern away from central Missouri. Skies will be clear Thursday with little moisture available overhead. Abundant sunshine and light northwesterlies will help temperatures climb again into the lower 50's for afternoon highs. Diurnal cooling and no insolation from cloud cover to speak of will push overnight lows back into the upper 30's before a carbon copy day repeats itself again Friday. Columbia will see a slow rise in both afternoon highs and overnight lows Thursday through Saturday before the next system abolishes persistence forecasting this week.

The narrow ridge bisecting the CONUS separates the exiting trough over New England and a vigorous trough digging into the Intermountain West Friday. This will lend to an extremely meridional flow aloft which will make progression of systems across the nation very slow. The axis of the ridge will not make its way into the Midwest before late Friday evening. The next weather maker for the region exists in the meandering trough to the west and will not make impact on the region before Saturday. This will start with low level winds veering to the south by daybreak Saturday. Model disagreement then exists as NAM moistens up the mid levels much quicker than its GFS counterpart. This can be directly correlated to much stronger wind speeds in the crucial low levels advertising more moisture advection for NAM than the GFS is willing to agree to at this point. While NAM dewpoint depression are much less precipitation at the surface is not anticipated before Saturday evening.  Despite the lack of rainfall Saturday will see increasing clouds as the profile overhead fills in.

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