Monday, March 18, 2019

Monday Night - Skies becoming cloudy. Low: 32-36

Tuesday Morning - Cloudy skies. A stray afternoon shower is possible. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night - Cloudy skies with rain, especially after midnight. Breezy. Low: 42-46

Wednesday - Cloudy skies remain. High: 50-54

Thursday - Sunny. High 54-58

Thanks to for the icons!


Clouds will move in Monday night and will stick around for the remainder of our forecast period. Highs will remain seasonal in the mid 50s. We've entered a very early springlike pattern of rollercoaster temperatures, so dress warm in the morning, but shed those layers by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be our warmest day with Highs potentially reaching 56 degrees. Tuesday night rain is likely beginning after midnight, but diminishing before sunrise. Expect Wednesday to have winds calm down after the midnight storm as clouds willl clear throughout the day. A High-pressure system will move in on Thursday bringing sunshine.

Forecasters: Danaher and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m.March 18, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

MOTD: Precipitation Tuesday Night.

Model Diagnostics: A general model blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC with above average confidence was chosen.

A shortwave trough on the east side of the conus continues to move as it will bring another jet ejecting from Canada into the Dakotas during Monday night. The vorticity will increase as it heads across South Dakota into Nebraska on Tuesday according to GFS models. Winds will switch from NW to W by tonight as we begin to enter the exit region of the jet. By Tuesday night, Missouri will feel the effects of a low-pressure system that deepened off of Kansas-Nebraska border. Vorticity at 500mb will range from 20-30 microbars/s from GFS model run, and GEFS shows CAPE will be below 50J/kg so it will not be a severe storm. The precipitation type is expected to be rain due to warm temperatures, and the amount is expected to be 1/10th - 1/20th of an inch. Winds during the night will be close to 30 - 40kts given GFS soundings as the LLJ amplifies during this time. The apex of the LLJ is just to our south and east where the heaviest rain is anticpated to fall.

As Wednesday approaches, GFS models shows dry air aloft and moisture at the surface. This means that we will have a stratus cloud cover. By Wednesday night everygthing will clear out. On Thursday, winds will switch to Northerly as a High-pressure system sets in.

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