Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Tonight - Skies remain cloudy, rain possible. Low: 41-45

Wednesday -
Rain subsiding early morning, a mix of sun and clouds. High: 52-56


Wednesday Night - Clouds clearing out. Low: 42-46

Thursday - Clear skies. High: 46-58


Friday - Sunny. High 58-62

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


Today has been a more dreary spring day here in Columbia. Mostly overcast skies dominated the region for most of the morning and afternoon hours and we even saw a few sprinkles of rain but otherwise, we have been staying dry. Our next possibility of rain comes as we head into the evening/overnight hours. The system that moves through we will experience light to moderate rain but only leave us with about .05" to .20" of total rainfall. This should not affect our rivers or streams with our current flooding issue. This system should not affect our temperatures and should move out by the morning tomorrow and we will clear up. The rest of the work week looks to be seasonal as we will see lots of sunshine and a warming trend as we head into the weekend with highs climbing into the 60's. 

Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown and Hirsch
Issued: 5:00 p.m.March 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

With Spring officially beginning tomorrow, this forecast sure does show a Spring feel.  The model choice for the forecast period is a blend of the 12Z GFS/NAM from the guidance of the WPC.  The jet max is off to our south sitting over the southern plains and on its way into the Mississippi Valley. With that said, Columbia is on the edge of the left exit region of the jet streak and some areas of divergence passing through the area throughout the evening and into early morning tomorrow.  The primary concern for this period is the possibility of rain.  An upper-level low that ejected from a longwave trough in Canada is making its way from the north tracking south on the eastern side of the strong ridge that is out to our west.  The shortwave trough is a positively tilted trough axis and does form into a mature open wave cyclone by the time it reaches us.  As the system approaches us we will be affected by the warm front of this system first.  With the effects of the warm front this will keep clouds around and lows in the lower 40s overnight.  GFS model soundings are having a hard time with saturation throughout the column.  The column does have a wind profile that does support WAA, moisture from 340mb to 785mb level and decent omega forcing and a dry layer from 785mb to the surface, if any rain was to fall it will be light in nature but moderate at times throughout the overnight hours.

Rain is expected to begin around 05Z Wednesday.  On and off showers are expected throughout the early morning hours between 06Z and 11Z Wednesday.  Rain totals are expected to reach anywhere from a .05" to .20".  A cold frontal passage will come through the area at 09Z Wednesday, killing any moisture left in the atmosphere leaving us with a low cloud deck for part of the morning with a mix of sun and clouds during the day Wednesday with low-level moisture still hanging around.

Another cold front does move through the area again overnight Wednesday into Thursday clearing out the clouds from the area.  A strong surface ridge will be moving toward us from our northwest behind the cold front.  We will maintain more of a northerly wind component for Thursday and Friday which typically means cooler temperatures.  Mid-Missouri will reach the mid-50s Thursday and upper 50s to low 60s Friday.  Possibilities of rain returns for the weekend.

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