The MU Campus Weather Forecast is on holiday break, and will not be forecasting from 12/10/2018 to 1/21/2019. 

Thanks to all of you who have visited this page over the last few months (at about 1,000 views per month!)

Thanks also to these dedicated students who made the CWF a reality and a success!

Left to right:  Griffen McAfee-Myers, Evan Travis, Caleb Brown, Sam Ritter, Adam Hirsch, Colby Scroggins, Sean Munley, Alex Johnston, Lucy Doll, Kasey Carlson, Sean Danaher, Jehnna Azzara, Katherine Rojas Murillo, Jon Bongard, and Paula Sumrall.  (Not pictured:  Matt Hefner.)

We will return for Spring 2019!

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday night - Cloudy. Low: 22-26

Saturday - Cloudy. High: 30-34

Saturday night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 18-22.

 
Sunday - Increasing cloudiness during the afternoon. High: 32-36

 

Monday - Becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. High: 30-34.
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 
A strong high pressure system will govern our weather for much of the period. In its wake, we will see tranquil, albeit much cooler than normal weather during this period. As a storm system passes to our south tonight into tomorrow, we will a thick layer of high clouds, but now precipitation is forecast. Another system will move west of our area Sunday night into Monday, producing more high-level cloudiness. Overall, daytime highs will vary only slightly from day to day.


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Forecasters: Travis, Ritter, and Hirsch
Issued: 3:06 p.m., December 7, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
A seemingly quiet weekend ensues over mid-Missouri for much of the forecast period. A big anticyclone is parked over much of the Midwest. Mid-Missouri will remain in the center of the air mass until early next week. Sky conditions and temperatures will remain relatively constant for the forecast period. GFS 700 hPa RH predicts drying out Friday night and remaining very dry for the rest of the weekend. This does not mean clear skies, however, as GFS Skew-T's show persisent saturation with respect to ice in between 500-300 hPa. Over the course of the forecast period, high clouds will thin out during the day letting some sunshine in. Skew-T's for Sunday indicate enough clouds clearning to let our temperatures rise just a few degrees. GFS 500 hPa vorticity shows a clipper coming down from Alberta late Sunday into early Monday. This system will knock temperatures back to the persistent highs seen thus far.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 18-22.

Friday - Cloudy. High: 35-39.


 
Friday night - Cloudy. Low: 19-23.

Saturday- Cloudy. High: 35-39.

Sunday-   Partly Cloudy. High: 36-40.
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 
Conditions will remain pretty constant throughout the course of the weekend. Tonight, we will see a suspense of precipitation seen earlier today with clouds remaining overnight. Tomorrow the clouds will stick around for the course of the day with cold air keeping temperatures below average. Saturday clouds will remain in the area with calm conditions at ground level. Sunday clouds will stick around through the morning through mid afternoon but will begin to dry out through the night breaking up clouds and giving more sunny conditions going into Monday. 
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Forecasters: Doll, Myers, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 3:47 p.m., December 6, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
A high pressure system will be responsible for cold air advection is keeping conditions consistent through the entirety of the weekend. With air coming from the north to northeast, we will continue to see temperatures below freezing through tonight and tomorrow. The 300-500mb level will be saturated tomorrow morning to mid afternoon which will keep clouds around. Eventually the saturation continues into the mid-lower atmosphere at 600 mb later Friday night, until this saturation disappears and the 300mb level begins the process all over again. The 300mb-500mb levels will remain saturated from late Friday night through late Sunday afternoon keeping clouds around for the weekend. The 700 mb level will be extremely dry throughout Sunday keeping the possibility of precipitation non-existent. Temps will remain below freezing during this saturation and drying out through Sunday.    

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Clouds increasing over night. Low: 29-33.

 Thursday - Chance of snow in the morning, remains cloudy.
  High: 32-36.

 
Thursday night - Partly cloudy. Low: 16-20.

 

Friday- Partly sunny. High: 33-36.

Saturday-   Cloudy. High: 28-32.
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: Sunshine was short lived as clouds move back into the area this evening.  A cold front moves into the area around 2am Thursday morning. The passage of the cold front will bring a chance of snow tonight lasting through tomorrow morning and ending around noon with around a half an inch of accumulation expected.  Clouds will stick around tomorrow with some clearing out as a high pressure enters our area Thursday night and into Friday leading to some peaks of sun during the day Friday.  The high will linger long enough to keep  chances of precipitation off to our south for Saturday.


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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 3:58 p.m., December 5, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

We saw some sunshine today and that allowed us to warm up enough to melt off any residual snow from yesterday. We have not seen any type of precipitation today and that will hold off since we have a large dry layer between 700-850 mb. Once we overcome that we can quickly expect some snow in the overnight hours as a cold front approaches. That will be due to a good amount of lift and a short wave that will make its way towards the forecasting area. Snow chances continue during the day tomorrow but should clear out after lunchtime since our moisture will dry out, the front will have passed and the lift will not be able to support precipitation. Once the snow exits the region we will remain dry and cloudy. We can expect to see around a half an inch of accumulation. The rest of the work week will be very similar to each other as we will be under a high pressure zone. Clouds will be present and high temperatures will stick around the freezing mark so the snow that we get from the Thursday system will likely stick around until the weekend. Addressing the possible winter storm over the weekend, the GFS still has the track on the low pressure system to our south in northern Arkansas. Further monitoring of the system will be necessary as the slightest change in the path of the low could substantially impact the weather in mid-Missouri.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 22-26.

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny.
High: 40-44.

Wednesday night - Cloudy. Low: 28-32.

Thursday- Cloudy with light snow in the morning. High: 30-34.

Friday-  Mostly Cloudy. High: 26-30.
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: Expect cool temperatures, overcast conditions, and light flurries to persist tonight. Wednesday will offer a brief break from our recent chilly conditions as high temperatures reach into the low 40's. A cold front will travel across Mid-Missouri Thursday morning returning cool air and light morning snow with less than an inch of accumulation expected.


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Forecasters: Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:30 p.m., December 4, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

With slightly above average confidence, GFS was used for this forecast. Upper level analysis shows zonal flow across the CONUS with the core of the jet streak located over the Mississippi valley. Though a ribbon of vorticity propagates west to east at 500 mb, there are no chances of precipitation on Wednesday.
Tonight, around midnight time height cross section analysis indicates upper motion (-3 mb/s) with high relative humidity which suggests flurries, that is what GFS and NAM solution indicates.
Maximum temperatures for tomorrow will increase, reaching the 40's promoted by a change in the wind direction from W to SW which will lead to warm air advection. Condition become more interesting Thursday morning, as the cold front approaches to the area associated with some mid-level vorticity, higher values of omega and a saturated air column aloft. This will bring a risk of snow showers that will last until Thursday around noon. After that, temperature will struggle to reach the freezing mark to end the week.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Overcast skies remain. Low 24-28. 

 
Tuesday - Overcast skies. High: 30-34.

 
Tuesday night - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 24-28.

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny. High: 40-44. 

Thursday- Cloudy with a brief light snow shower. High: 30-34.
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: We will have overcast skies until clouds move out Wednesday morning. Sunshine will heat us up for Wednesday, bringing us closer to average for this time of year. Cold air returns on Thursday with a cold front that will move through our area during the afternoon. This will bring us a chance of a brief light snow shower with little accumulation expected.


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Forecasters: Danaher, Johnston, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:15 p.m., December 3, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

Went with a blend of NAM, GFS, and EURO for this forecast package. The NAM appeared to have a good handle on current jet positions while the GFS seemed to displace it further south. Currently a high pressure system to our west will help keep us dry, but moisture hanging around near the surface will keep us overcast for the next couple of days. The column is mostly dry above 800mb with little to no vertical motion aloft. We could see flurries Tuesday morning due to this layer of moist air, but chances are slim given that this moist layer is very shallow. For the rest of this week we will stay just to the north of the upper-level jet and keep northerly flow that will continue to reinforce the cold air and lead to below average temperatures. Cloud-cover and the lack of diurnal heating will help to contribute to those cold temperatures as well. A small chance of light snow will occur Thursday morning into the afternoon. Soundings from the NAM and GFS have shown that winds will shift from veering to backing only for a short period of time. It also becomes particularly evident that the vertical column will be cold enough to support snow as the dominant precipitation type. Forcing for ascent will help to promote this snow chance as well. The NAM claims that about 0.20 inches will fall and the GFS says 0.17 inches. Future forecast periods should be aware of the potential snowfall.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
Monday - Overcast skies. High: 32-36.



Monday night - Overcast skies remain. Low 24-28. 
 


Tuesday - Overcast skies. High: 30-34.
 


Tuesday night - Cloudy skies remain. Low: 24-28.

 

Wednesday - Clouds move out Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny. High: 42-46. 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: Dry upper-level conditions and a high pressure system to our west will keep us free of precipitation over the next few days, but we will have overcast skies until clouds move out Wednesday morning. Sunshine will heat us up for Wednesday, bringing us closer to average for this time of year.


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Forecasters: Carlson, Scroggins, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 9:30 a.m., December 3, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)A high pressure system to our west will help keep us dry, but moisture hanging around near the surface will keep us overcast for the next couple of days. We are mostly dry above 800mb with no vertical motion in the atmosphere. We could see an isolated snow shower Tuesday morning due to this layer of moist air, but chances are slim given that its pretty weak. For the rest of this week we will stay just to the north of the upper-level jet and keep a northerly flow that will continue to contribute to our unseasonably cold temperatures. Cloud-cover and the lack of heating at the surface will help to contribute to those cold temperatures as well.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Heavy rain with thunder possible. Low: 42-46

Saturday - Rain ending before sunrise. Clouds remain. Midday T-storms possible. Windy. High: 58-62

Saturday Night - Cloudy and Breezy. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Cloudy. High 40-44

Monday - Cloudy with a rain or snow shower possible. High: 32-36

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
The active weather persists throughout this weekend into early next week. Tonight expect heavy rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible beginning around midnight. A warm front will pass through Columbia and bring up our temperatures as the night progresses. Tomorrow, expect much warmer temperatures than we have been experiencing for most of November. Do not hope for pleasant spring weather, though, as winds could exceed 30mph with clouds partially clearing. The potential for isolated midday thunderstorms lingers. Warm temperatures do not stick around past Saturday with temperatures falling back into the low 40s Sunday, and continuing to drop into Monday. 

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Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Active weather is again expected to impact mid-Missouri this weekend; however, unlike several previous instances this month, this iteration is expected to manifest itself mainly in the form of rain. 250-hPa jet streak coupling is expected to occur this evening, enhancing divergence aloft. At 700 hPa, upward vertical motion more than sufficient to support rainfall will also occur this evening. Additionally, 850-hPa winds will be out of the southwest at 35-45 kts, which will help transport plenty of moisture toward the area. All of these factors point to a rainy evening for Columbia. Also, it should be noted that between midnight and sunrise, K-Index vales will be greater than 30, Lifted Index values will be less than 0, there will be positive CAPE present, and temperatures will be nearly equal to convective temperatures. This hints at the possibility for a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain during this time frame. As one final note, PWATs are expected to be around 1.2 inches, and while these values to don't hint at a widespread heavy rainfall event, they do suggest the brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible. Rain is expected to clear shortly before sunrise, but clouds should rain throughout the day. 850-hPa winds will still be in the 35-45 kt range, but these winds will be able to more sufficiently mix to the surface, leading to a breezy day Saturday. SPC places Columbia on the fringe of a marginal risk Saturday, so it seems appropriate to mention the chance of a thunderstorm or two, mainly around midday. The most significant threat for thunderstorms, including some severe, will reside to our east. 

Flow transitions from southwesterly to northwesterly Saturday night, reacquainting our area will the below normal temperatures we have grown accustomed to. Cloudy skies will persist throughout the remainder of the period. One final note of interest is that as a minor disturbance pushes through the area on Monday, there is the possibility of a couple rain or snow showers during the day.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Cloudy. Low: 33-37.

Friday - Patchy morning fog with clouds throughout the day. High: 46-50.

Friday Night- Cloudy. Heavy rain beginning later in the night. Low: 33-37.

Saturday- Rain continuing through early afternoon. Staying cloudy through the day. High: 58-62.

Sunday- Cloudy. High: 42-46.

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
Clouds will continue to remain overnight keeping the temperatures warm. Friday morning brings a chance of patchy fog to watch for on your morning commute. The clouds will stick around the rest of the day as steady heavy rain will roll in late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. Temps will rise back up later in the day. Saturday night, colder winds will make their way back producing colder temps and cloudy conditions Sunday.
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Forecasters: Myers, Doll, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Overnight we will continue to see cloud cover and warmer temperatures from the recent warm front passing through. With the snow melting and evaporating into the lower part of the atmosphere, patches of fog early Friday morning are likely especially with the warm air temps aloft. An active low pressure system coming through Missouri all the way from California will be seen late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. This system has been active along the coasts producing heavy rain and possibility of severe conditions so we anticipate the system will keep strength and bring heavy rain. After the rain moves out, the jet stream will bring northernly cold air dropping temps for us and moving the low pressure system to the north. Clouds will remain throughout Sunday with windy conditions and cold westernly winds.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Low: 30-34.

Thursday - Cloudy. High: 46-50.

Thursday Night- Cloudy. Low: 33-37.

Friday- Mostly cloudy with showers starting in evening. High: 48-52.

Saturday- Rain in morning then partly sunny. High's near 50.

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:
We started our climb in temperature today and while we remained cloudy, we had a chance to melt away some of that residual snow. We will continue to warm throughout the rest of the work week and into Saturday but remain cloudy all the while. Before we peak in our warming trend we will have a warm front come through on Friday. This warm front will bring with it some precipitation in the form of rain, we should not see any freezing precip as of right now. Showers are expected to start on Friday night around 10pm and continue into Saturday morning. We should be dry by Saturday afternoon but once all of the rain is said and done we should have picked up around half an inch of precipitation. Our temperatures should peak on Saturday as well and we will start a cooling trend into the start of the next week.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 28, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The jet stream is going to be more zonal for the next few days.  Temperatures will be trending upward with a warm front that passed through early this afternoon.  The higher temperatures along with warm air advection will continue to melt the remaining snow.  Clouds will continue to persist throughout the forecast period due to the warm air advection as well as ample amounts of moisture throughout all levels.  Friday night into Saturday is what we are keeping an eye on. A strong low approaching from our west will bring the next chance of rain with PWAT values jumping from 0.79in to 1.15in. Strong values of shear and instability will provide favorable conditions for thunderstorms, but these should stay to the south of mid-Missouri. The chance for rain begins around 9-10pm Friday night and end around noon on Saturday as the low passes off to our north in southern Iowa. After the low passes on Saturday we will be clearing out behind the system and warming up again to above average temperatures.