Monday, December 9, 2019

Thank you for visiting the Mizzou Campus Weather Forecast. Our synoptic students are on break for the winter and so are we. Daily forecasts and discussions will return soon. Thank you for your support and have a great winter break! (Note: the icons below do not represent a forecast)

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Friday, December 6, 2019

Friday Night - Scattered clouds. Low: 28-32

Saturday - Clear skies. High: 44-48

Saturday Night - Clear skies.  Low: 32-36

Sunday- Mostly cloudy. High: 52-56

Monday- Overcast skies High: 42-46

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We have colder temperatures today in the low of 43 degrees (Sanborn Field) because current winds are out of the north.  However, this will be an uneventful weather weekend ahead.  Temperatures are expected to rise and we expect clear skies for most of the weekend as there is no systems moving through the area. However Sunday night, we expect traces of rain over Columbia which will persist into Monday morning. 
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Travis
Issued:  5:00pm December 06 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From the analysis of the 12Z GFS run 500-mb absolute vorticity map, we see that for the majority of Saturday and Sunday there are no areas of circulation. This is as a result of a zonal flow for most of the weekend from the GFS 500-mb height map and a surface high pressure system moving to the East which is observed from the  GFS MSLP map.  On Monday, however, as a low pressure system comes in from the S-W, we see regions of circulation over Missouri.  From further analysis, looking at the 700-mb RH and Omega map, whilst there is significant RH values, they do not coincide with high UVM.  As such, we do not anticipate much precipitation on Monday.

From the GFS Skew-T analysis and the NAM total precipitation run , this is supported.  We see a saturated environment and moist air mass from Sunday 3pm to Monday mid-day but only a trace to max precipitation amount of 0.04 inches in Columbia.  The GEFS also indicates low precipitation amounts with a total being 0.01 inches.   This is as a result of not having a strong Omega field in conjunction with a saturated environment.    

Friday - Cloudy in the morning, with clearing skies in the afternoon. High: 40-44

Friday Night - Mostly Clear skies. Low: 32-36

Saturday - Mostly Clear skies. High: 44-48

Saturday Night - Clouds build in overnight. Low: 32-36

Sunday- Mostly cloudy. High: 52-56

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Friday will be slightly cooler than the past few days due to the passing of a cold front. We will see a gradual warming trend through the weekend. A calm weekend is in store. Our next chance for possible precipitation will be Sunday evening in to Monday morning in the form of light showers.
Forecasters: Est,Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10:00am December 06 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

There is a shortwave trough right over Mid-Missouri bringing the cooler temperatures for Friday. No precipitation is expected for this cold front. Ample moisture will provide cloud cover in the morning. Skies begin to clear in the evening as the trough pushes out of the area. Overnight a high pressure system begins moving into Mid-Missouri. Winds are expected to shift from northerly to southwesterly.

Saturday remains calm  and clear as we under the influence of a high pressure system. The southwesterly winds will slowly funnel moisture in Saturday evening allowing clouds to build in overnight.

Clouds will linger through Sunday and temperatures become warmer due to the southwesterly flow. The majority of the day will remain dry with spotty showers in the evening, ahead of a low pressure system that will move in late Sunday early Monday.

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Thursday Night- Cloudy. Low: 34-38

Friday-  Cloudy in the morning, with clearing skies in the afternoon. High: 40-44

Friday Night- Mostly Clear skies. High: 34-38

Saturday - Mostly Clear skies, clouds moving in overnight. Low: 46-50

Sunday- Mostly cloudy. High: 54-58

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On Thurday evening there will be some cloud cover over the Columbia region which will stick around until Friday morning. Friday afternoon will bring clear skies as a low pressure moves away from Central Missouri and bring fair conditions into Saturday. On Sunday there will be a front to the west of the region, which will bring in clouds just in time for finals at Mizzou next week. 
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard 
Issued:  17:00 December 05, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Upper Air Data: 12Z Diagnostics
The 300-mb chart from 12 Zulu Upper air is primarily showing a well amplified ridge-trough meridional pattern. The jet placement is showing that Columbia is on the left entrance region of the jet, with a jet max of 90 knots over the Southern Alabama / Mississippi region.
On the 500-mb, there is a low pressure system forming off the California coast, with a ridge over the Rocky Mountains and a trough over the eastern CONUS.
The 700-mb primarily shows a tightening pressure gradient over Central Missouri and Dry Air Advection (DAA).
The 850-mb chart is showing a weak high pressure over the Rocky Mountain region, and DAA over Central Missouri.
With the SFC chart, there are light winds over Columbia and light winds and a front to the east of Columbia.

Radar / Vis: Radar is showing no echos over Columbia. Vis Sat (Blue Band 1 and Red Band 2) showing that there is a low over the Four Corners region. With this system, there exists some clouds moving from this region into the Midwest. 
IR / WV: IR is confirming that there are upper-level clouds over the station and WV is confirming jet placement.

Observed Skew-T: Upstream Skew-T is taken form KTOP (Topeka, KS), at 12Z. The sounding shows the atmosphere as stable with a radiation inversion and light winds. 

Model Verification:
KCOU GFS and NAM MOS are currently handling temperatures fairly well. Temperatures recorded from the obs are 57 degrees with the GFS needing a 3-degree adjustment up and the NAM needing a 0-degree adjustment.
NAM 18z model SKEW-T is currently 6 knots short of current conditions at KCOU. However, is verifying well on cloud heights.
SREF/HREF: Both are verifying well with the 12z Upper-Air package. In addition to this, the moisture on the 700-mb level is verifying well with cloud heights.

Forecast Reasoning:
Thursday Night: The primary issue with Thursday night is if there will be any precipitation from the clouds streaming into the region from the Four Corner's Low. While there is snowfall in the Wyoming / Colorado region of the US there has been no precipitation outside of the Rockies. The low-level pressure gradient is also fairly weak giving Columbia light winds.
Friday: The primary issue will be how much influence the Four Corner's Low will have on the Mid Missouri Region. Currently, the HREF is forecasting the ridge to the west of the Low to push it out of the Four Corner's region and into the Great Plains. As the Low moves to the east of Central Missouri, it will help clear out any remaining clouds Friday afternoon.
Saturday: During the day, the NAM Skew-T is forecasting a substance inversion over Columbia. With this, any real cloud development will be capped at 900-mb. In addition to this, the atmosphere is dry throughout most of the column and Omega values are non-existent, which also supports a clear, blue and 22 type day. 
Sunday: Sunday's conditions will primarily be caused by a cold front moving into Central Missouri in the evening hours. Any notable precip will be primarily confined to the Monday morning time frame. Pre-Frontal conditions will increase the RH values and lift and contribute to cloud formation throughout the day Sunday.

Thursday- Sunny, Increasing PM Clouds. High: 56-60

Thursday Night- Cloudy with possible rain. Low: 34-38

Friday- Cloudy, AM rain, PM clearing. High: 40-44

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 34-38

Saturday- Mostly Sunny. High: 46-50

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Today, the sun will stick around for most of the morning hours. Temperatures will warm up for today, but won't stick around. Clouds will increase throughout the evening hours into Thursday night because of a cold front pushing its way into the area. That will bring with it the possibility of rain, but mainly sticking south of I-70. As the cold front passes Friday morning, temperatures won't be warming up as much. Winds will be coming from the North and clouds will stick around for the majority of Friday. Clouds will move out in the overnight hours leaving Saturday to be mostly sunny with winds switching to the south.
Forecasters: Munley, Gallahan, Pauley
Issued:  10:00am December 05, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC model guidance recommends going with Non-CMC blend with 00z mean GEFS for temperatures, so 06z GFS was used with 00z GEFS mean for temperatures.

The main feature for this forecast period is the increasing cloud cover this afternoon, the possibility for rain overnight, and a cold frontal passage for Friday morning.

The calm weather that the Mid-Mississippi Valley region is experiencing today is due to the flow at 250mb being zonal. This begins to change some this evening as clouds will start to move into the area which will usher in the possibility of cloudy skies and possible light rain overnight. The confidence in the potential for rain looks low. This is because there is a lack of UVM at 500mb. The values for UVM are less that 2 ubar/s, so we lack lift in the atmosphere. The 700-mb RH values of upwards of 100% look promising, yet there is also a lack of moisture in the column to work with as PWAT values struggle to reach 1 inch. Lastly, the 06z GFS soundings show the column being saturated from 300mb down to 700mb, yet there is a dry column of air from 700mb to the surface. This indicates that there will just be cloud cover. The main feature though is that the surface low looks to track to the south in central and southern Arkansas. With all those factors, any rainfall received will be light and scattered in nature. What is for certain is that there will be a frontal passage late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will switch our winds to out of the North giving us a backing wind profile leading to CAA occurring overnight as well. The CAA will drop high temperatures for tomorrow ten to twelve degrees colder than today. Cloud cover will also remain in place for a majority of tomorrow. The low level clouds will begin to move out tomorrow afternoon, but the high level cirrus will remain into tomorrow night. The sky will begin to clear out after 9pm tomorrow night which will give us sunny skies Saturday and high temperatures back to near seasonal average.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Wednesday Night- Partly cloudy. Low: 34-38

Thursday- Sunny, then increasing clouds. High: 56-60

Thursday Night- Cloudy with rain. Low: 34-38

Friday- Cloudy, then becoming sunny. High: 40-44

Saturday- Sunny. High: 46-50

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Tonight, partly cloudy skies along with a southerly wind will not allow temperatures to drop too much. Thursday will start out sunny before increasing cloudiness begins around noon. Warm air moving through the region will allow for above average temperatures. Thursday night, rain is expected to begin after midnight with accumulation totaling a tenth of an inch. Early Friday, a cold front will move through the area, causing morning temperatures to dip before warming up as the day progresses. A northerly wind will cause temperatures to rise little, but skies will begin to clear after the cold front passes. Saturday will be nicer with sunny skies and a southerly wind.

Forecasters: Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued:  5:00 pm, December 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC guidance indicates preference towards a general model blend with less weight given to the GFS, and as such, the forecast was made primarily using the 18Z NAM and 15Z SREF, with some consideration towards the 18Z GFS.

For tonight, model soundings indicate areas of high moisture, mainly around 400 mb, that will lead to some cloud development, but not enough to make the sky overcast. Winds will begin westerly before backing and becoming southerly as the area begins to be influenced by a surface low located over the Central-Southern Plains. 

As we move into Thursday, WAA will begin over the area due to the same surface low in the Central-Southern Plains. Model soundings show a relative dry morning, thus causing sunny skies. In the afternoon, though, increasing moisture around the 375 mb and the 700 mb levels will cause cloud development, more than what will be seen the night before. The timing of this development is paramount and will dictate what the high temperature for Thursday. Currently, we are forecasting a high temperature of 56-60; we will revise this if there are changes to the timing of cloud development or a change in strength in WAA over the area.

Thursday night, the atmosphere will begin to saturate and cloudy skies will develop ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass over the area at around 6 AM Friday locally. Rain is expected to begin around midnight locally. Precipitable water is low, only about 0.8 inches. This, coupled with only a few hours of expected rain will lead to an anticipated total rainfall of about a tenth of an inch. No storms are expected with this rain as CAPE values are little to none.

Friday morning will see the end of WAA as cold frontal passage begins over the area. Wind direction will shift from southerly to northerly, and frontal passage will bring temperatures to the lowest for the day, even cooler than the forecasted low of 34-38 Thursday night into early Friday morning. After frontal passage, weak CAA will start and keep temperatures low, despite the atmosphere drying out and clearing skies starting mid-morning. Thankfully, CAA will not last long, as it will be ending that night.

Finally, Saturday will be somewhat warmer as the first full day of sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the high 40s. Model soundings indicate a relatively dry atmosphere, so little to no cloud development is expected. Additionally, a surface high located over the Great Lakes will bring southerly flow to the area, but no advection is expected at this time.

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 50-54

Wednesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 34-38

Thursday- Increasing clouds. High: 56-60

Thursday Night- Cloudy with rain. Low: 34-38

Friday- Cloudy, with clouds thinning. High: 40-44

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Wednesday is expected to get fairly warm for December, with temperatures expected to get into the 50s.  Winds will remain out of the northwest through the day.  In the early hours of Thursday, winds will start to change to be out of the south, bringing warmer temperatures into the area.  These temperatures are not expected to be too much higher than Wednesday's, as cloud cover is expected to move in ahead of a low pressure system.  Rain is likely Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.  Early Friday morning the cold front will pass over Columbia, and temperatures are expected to fall to close to normal temperatures, although still a little on the warm side. 
Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  10:00 am, December 4, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC guidance indicates that a non-UKMET blend is ideal, and as such, the forecast will be made using the 06Z GFS and  09Z SREF plumes. 

Wednesday will continue to see clear skies, with soundings indicating no saturation at any level.  Winds will be out of the northwest through the day.  Temperatures are expected to get relatively high due to diurnal heating. 

Early Thursday morning will see Columbia enter WAA ahead of a surface low based over the Great Lakes, along with clouds starting to build into the area ahead of the cold front attached to this low.  Precipitation is not expected during the day Thursday, but Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.  Rain is expected to start around 00Z.  No storms are expected with this pre-frontal precipitation, as soundings indicate no CAPE and positive LI. Rainfall totals are expected to be quite low, as this rain will be stratiform in nature and quite light.

Early Friday morning will see cold frontal passage.  Temperatures will drop a fair amount, with clouds lingering behind the front, but starting to thin throughout the day.  CAA will be in place most of the day, with CAA ceasing late Friday. 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Tuesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 28-32

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 48-52

Wednesday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Thursday- Increasing clouds. Rain possible late. High: 52-56

Friday- Partly cloudy. High: 40-44

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Tuesday night we remain in a quiet weather pattern, keeping skies mostly clear. As we move into Wednesday, skies remain mostly clear with quiet weather patterns still in place. Sunny skies with light winds from the west will allow temperatures to heat up into the upper 40's. The quiet weather patterns continue into mid Thursday, when a disturbance will enter the region. This will bring in a chance for precipitation late Thursday into Thursday night, with a cold front following behind the rain. Friday will be cooler as the cold front moves past.
Forecasters: Savoy, Lujan, Vanderpool
Issued:  5:00 pm, December 3, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC Model Diagnostic discussion supports a general model blend, with less weight on the 12z GFS by Day 3. Therefore, 12z GFS is our model of choice, with more attention towards the SREF by later in the period.

There is really not too much to talk about in our region of the CONUS right now. A large trough (which is supporting a pretty potent Nor'easter just off the coast of New England) is located just to our east. This trough is moving away from us, which is leading to northwesterly flow aloft over our area. A fairly quiet pattern will remain in place for the next two days, with not much to speak of weather-wise.

For tonight, cool conditions are expected as light winds and clear skies allow for radiational cooling. We have elected to keep lows in the 28-32 degree range for now - models want to push a couple degrees warmer, but the lack of wind and cloud cover should allow cooler temperatures than what the models currently suggest. Tomorrow, clear skies and light winds will allow for a sun-driven warm-up, with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Overall, a pleasant late Fall day is in store for our Wednesday.

The quiet pattern continues Wednesday night and into the first half of our day on Thursday, with the airmass modifying only slightly - therefore, temperatures Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, and temperatures Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than tomorrow. For late in the day Thursday, our only shot at some more active weather will present itself in the form of an upper-level shortwave passing over Missouri. This shortwave will provide just enough lift, combined with sufficient moisture, to produce a few rain showers over the area Thursday evening and night. The shortwave will be accompanied by a cold front, which should enter the region late Thursday night/ early Friday morning. The front will drop temperatures about ten degrees from where they will be on Thursday, and as a result, we're expecting a partly cloudy day on Friday with temperatures hanging in the low to mid 40s.

  Tuesday- AM Clouds. Afternoon Clearing. High: 46-50

 Tuesday Night- Clear. Low: 28-32

  Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 48-52

Wednesday Night- Clear. Low: 32-36


Thursday - Partly Cloudy Low: 50-54

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Currently there are high level clouds over Columbia. These clouds are going to clear out this afternoon giving us sunny skies for the rest of the day and high temps around 50 degrees. Tonight and tomorrow skies will remain clear with light winds from the NW. This will keep the forecast pretty persistent with temperature again around average. Thursday, winds begin to shift to WSW as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains. This will help bring in some moisture and will will see increasing clouds for the afternoon.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00 am, December 3, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

General model blend is recommended by the Weather Prediction Center. Therefore, we used 06Z NAM and GFS models for this forecast. The next couple of days seem pretty persistent with the main topic of discussion on Thursday with the possibility of rain. 

The overcast skies that are currently over the area are expected to move off to the East this afternoon. This is due to the region being in a post-trough pattern which is ushering in dry NW winds. GFS soundings indicate that the skies will remain clear overnight into Thursday morning as the column remains dry throughout this entire period. The flow at 250mb remains zonal as well giving us relatively calm conditions and seasonal temperatures. This calm weather pattern is also due to the Middle Mississippi Valley region situated between the polar and subtropical jets. Thursday morning a shortwave trough is anticipated to be over Central California. This shortwave will bring the potential for late afternoon rain. 06z GFS sounding indicates Thursday the column becoming saturated between 700mb to 680mb, and also between 450mb and 400mb. There however is a dry layer from the surface to 700mb and at 680mb to 450mb, with all this in mind indicates sky condition for Thursday afternoon is expected to be partly cloudy skies. Refer to later forecast shifts for more details on the rain potential for Thursday.