Monday, March 1, 2021

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday Night - Clear. Low: 26-30. 



Tuesday - Sunny. High: 54-58. 



Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34. 



Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64. 



Thursday - Sunny. High: 58-62. 



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Discussion:
We are in the first week of meteorological Spring, and it is certainly going to feel like it for the next several days. Sunny skies and calm conditions will continue throughout much of the week. After a brief cool-down tonight (with lows in the upper 20s), southerly winds and bright sunshine will help to lift temperatures into the middle and upper 50s for Tuesday. Look for things to get even warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s. Thursday will also definitely be on the mild side, with sunny skies and highs near 60.
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Forecaster: Vanderpool
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 01 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

Things are quiet and sunny in mid-MO this afternoon. WPC surface analysis resolves a weak cold front in northern MO as of 18z, with a surface high located just off to its north. An ongoing region of heavy clouds and rainfall was located across much of the South. This large area of unsettled weather was forming in response to a slow-moving cold front, which (as of ~20 UTC) was supported by an upper-air circulation that was nearly cut off from the main jet stream at 250-mb. 

For this forecast period, the 12 UTC GFS/GEFS and the 20 UTC RAP and 18 UTC extended HRRR were used, with the SREF also employed for temperature guidance.

This evening and overnight, the surface cold front is progged to slide southward into mid-MO. This will result in a wind shift from westerly to northerly, but there is little to no real cold air located behind the front. Short range models have the surface high behind the front slipping by quickly to the northeast of COU. The high should be almost due east of mid-MO by sunrise, setting up decent southerly flow and WAA for Tuesday. Lows overnight will likely fall into the upper 20s with clear skies and light winds.

For Tuesday, all signs point towards sunny skies and modest WAA. It could even be a bit on the breezy side, with gusts as high as 15-20 mph possible. The WAA and sunny skies will combine to allow temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 50s. SREF and GEFS means are around 53-54 degrees, with the HRRR indicating the potential for a high as warm as 57-58. Given the recent outstanding performance of the HRRR and the cool bias of the ensemble models, a range of 54-58 degrees seems well in order. 

Tuesday night into Wednesday, continued southerly flow and WAA will combine to keep temperatures above climatological averages. The aforementioned area of precipitation and clouds - supported by an upper-level circulation that had nearly become cut off as of 20 UTC Monday - will shift eastward and remain well south of COU as the circulation is re-absorbed into the jet. This will leave the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere dry over mid-MO, ensuring mostly sunny conditions through midweek. Both ensemble and deterministic models are consistent with well-defined ridging at 500-mb by Wednesday and Thursday, supporting the idea of warm weather and sunny skies during this period. 

Wednesday currently looks to be the warmest day of the two, with highs in the 60s and sunny skies. However, Thursday has the potential to be very warm as well, since southerly flow will be maximized out ahead of the next storm system. Deterministic and ensemble models are both consistent on a disturbance approaching from the west by Thursday night, with the 12 UTC GFS indicating a semi cut-off and closed upper low. Based upon GEFS model guidance, this may either be a closed cut-off low or a rather deep and well-defined shortwave. Either way, moisture advection will support increasing clouds Thursday night, with the potential for precipitation just beyond the forecast period.  

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday-
Sunny. High: 52-56



Monday Night-
Clear. Low: 30-34



Tuesday-
Sunny. High: 54-58



Tuesday Night-
Clear. Low: 30-34



Wednesday-
Sunny. High: 60-64


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Discussion: 

Columbia will experience a nice warming trend as we start heading into the week. Monday has a high of mid-to-upper 50’s as clear skies help us warm up. Heading into Monday night temperatures will start to cool off as we remain clear with winds coming out of the northeast bringing cooler air. Tuesday will remain warm as the high reaches mid-to-upper 50’s as the wind shifts coming out of the southwest. Tuesday night will be similar to Monday night as we remain clear with temperatures in the lower-to-mid 30’s. Wednesday will be another nice and sunny day as temperatures reach into the lower-to-mid 60’s.


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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 01 March 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast period, the 06z NAM model was used due to its handling of current temperatures and model timing verified from the previous model runs. The NAM model guidance paired with the SREF Plumes showed high confidence in temperatures and moisture return for the upcoming forecast period. 

Currently, an upper level ridge is beginning to make its way from the northwest over much of the Great Plains and is starting to build west. This ridge will force the current upper level trough easterly forcing any moisture to exit east along with it. The current low-level winds are coming from the south, but will begin to shift southeasterly as we head into late Monday morning. These southeasterly flowing winds will bring with it a warming temperature trend paired with mostly sunny skies. The majority of the clouds that will be seen overhead throughout Monday will be cirrus clouds which won’t hinder the warming temperatures. Monday night, the upper level ridge moving from the west will encompass much of the midwest as winds shift from southeasterly to southwesterly. We remain dry thanks to this high pressure system that originated from southwestern Canada. Heading into Tuesday morning, a small upper level trough begins to push easterly from Texas making its way to central Arkansas. This low pressure system will stay well to our south taking with it any possibility for rain and moisture Tuesday. The lower level winds stay south easterly and mostly sunny skies lead to a continuous warming trend to where we top out into the upper 50s for Tuesday afternoon. 


Overnight Tuesday, the lower level winds begin to shift from the west and a lack of clouds begin to lower our temperatures down to the lower 30s. Due to the warming of the surface during most of the day on Tuesday, our surface temperatures will aid in keeping us warmer allowing for us to stay similar in our overnight lows to Monday nights. Wednesday, winds shift from westerly to north westerly. Thanks to the slow moving upper level ridge currently building in from our west, we will remain dry and skies will be mostly sunny. These northwesterly flowing winds will keep our temperatures from warming up into the 60’s on Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s for the high on Wednesday. 


The next forecasters main area of focus should be on the upper level trough that begins to form out to our west on Thursday morning. Currently, model guidance suggested a southeasterly track towards Arkansas, but any change north could bring the possibility of rain later on this week.   


Friday, February 26, 2021

                                                       Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Friday Night
 - Chance of rain with decreasing clouds by sunrise. Low: 34-38




Saturday
- Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High: 60-64



Saturday
 Night- Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Low: 38-42





Sunday
 -  Mostly Cloudy. High: 46-50



Monday
- Sunny and windy. High: 46-50

 

 
 
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Discussion: 
 
A mainly pleasant late winter weekend is in store for Columbia. A slight chance of a shower this evening will give we to a sunny and warmer Saturday thanks to southerly winds. Clouds and a cold front will pass through the area Saturday night with little precipitation anticipated. Cloudy and colder will be the rule Sunday behind the cold front but sunny skies will greet us as March rolls in like a lamb on Monday.

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Forecaster: Bongard
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 26 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast period the 12Z GFS model was used due a variety of reasons. Neither NAM or GFS handled current surface temperatures particularly well as both were trending colder than the current high of 48F at Sanborn Field. To break the tie SREF and GEFS plumes were analyzed and dProg/dt was utilized to determine that better consensus existed with the GFS. NAM was the colder of the two models and handled QPF of this weekends incoming system very poorly so the decision to use GFS was made. This model choice is a deviation from the morning forecast when NAM handled IC's better so larger changes in the forecast may be necessary.

 Zonal flow aloft at 250 mb will transition to southwesterly flow this evening and overnight as the sub-tropical jet couples with the polar jet over the central Plains. Slight ridging over the Midwest and eastern half of the CONUS will preside tomorrow as a trough over the Rockies deepens the long wave flow. The meridional nature of the flow continues into Sunday when a ridge-trough-ridge pattern is created by Sunday evening. The easternmost ridge exits the CONUS Monday giving way to a way amplified ridge-trough pattern over the country. This will place mid-Missouri in a northwesterly flow aloft by the end of the forecast period.

500-mb analysis is active for the forecast period. Vorticity overhead today will erode to the east this evening. A very subtle shortwave riding the flow across the Midwest will bring some vorticity near the region tonight though this energy will stay mainly north of the area over Iowa. Slight ridging in the 500-mb flow Saturday will begin to push east tomorrow night as the amplifying long wave to the west begins its trek into the Central Plains tomorrow night. A secondary shortwave and possible cold front will traverse through the region Sunday.

700-mb and 850-mb charts as well as model sounding data were used to determine the nature of the lower levels this weekend. Moisture is apparent this evening over mid-Missouri but dries out considerably overnight. Due to this the chance of rain for this evening will be lowered significantly to maybe an isolated shower with little accumulation though confidence is low. South-southwesterly flow at 850 mb tomorrow will allow modest WAA to warm Saturday temperatures into the low 60's. This is thanks to an LLJ that will develop from Texas to Nebraska and begin to slide east as the second short wave and associated cold front begin their trek into the Midwest tomorrow evening. The column begins to moisten at first from the top down by 21Z tomorrow with some surface saturation by 03Z Sunday though the dry layer will persist. 

While PWAT values will climb to around 0.7 Saturday night the dry layer in the middle of the profile looks to be strong enough to hamper precipitation chances with this frontal passage. A very slight chance of showers early Sunday morning will be left in the forecast though confidence is again low. Frontal passage will occur in mid-Missouri between 09-12Z Sunday morning pushing any usable moisture to the east drying the profile leading to a cloudy but dry Sunday. As the sun rises Monday morning the area will be in a post frontal regime as northwest flow presides giving way to a chilly but sunny Monday.

                                                      Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Friday
 - Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 48-52




Friday Night - Scattered Showers with mostly cloudy conditions. Low: 36-40



Saturday
 - Overnight clouds move out early morning. Mostly sunny. High: 60-64




Saturday Night
 -  Light rain stopping before midnight. Mostly Cloudy. Low: 38-42



Sunday
- Partly cloudy and windy. High: 48-52

 

 
 
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Discussion: 
 
Thankfully, the relatively warm weather should persist for most of this forecasting period and weekend. Friday Night will result in increasing cloud cover with the threat of pop-up showers.  Due to a high pressure system over much of Mid-Missouri, Saturday temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s. However, cold front passage Saturday night will carry light rain with accumulation of 0.1-0.2 inches and a decrease in temperatures into the high 40s.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Ozdas, Bongard
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 26 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The NAM was mainly used for this forecasting period due to comparisons ran by model diagnostics to the GFS. NAM40 had a more accurate representation of initial conditions for temperature and surface.  SREF and GEFS plumes were additionally implemented to reference quantitative precipitation forecasts for Friday and Saturday rain chances. 

The 250-mb plot shows the subtropical jet and the polar jet will be coupling starting from Friday 18Z and these jets will be coupled completely by Sunday 03Z. With this coupling occurring over our region, the convergence and divergence regions merging will effectively cancel each other out. The flow is west-southwesterly at this level showing a little bit of meridional flow because of the subtropical jet coupling with polar jet. At 500-mb on Friday 14Z the vorticity is a little bit high the convergence will take place over us.

Lower level moisture content suggests the scattered cloudiness on Friday and this will be cleared out on Saturday. However, by 06Z Sunday, the atmosphere will be getting moistening again suggesting that shower likely on Sunday. At the surface this moisture will be advected from the south ahead of the cold frontal passage on Sunday. This moisten advection will help saturate the column form the surface up. However, this moisture over mid-Missouri will be short-lived as the NAM model sounding dries up by 15Z Sunday as the region resides in a post-frontal weather regime by Sunday afternoon.


Thursday, February 25, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field





Thursday Night
- Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32



Friday
- Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 48-52



Friday Night
-Evening rain subsiding around midnight. Low: 36-40



Saturday
- Overnight clouds move out early morning. Mostly sunny.                           High: 60-64


Sunday
- Partly cloudy and windy. High: 48-52

 

 
 
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Discussion: 
 
Thursday night skies will have clouds moving ahead of a low pressure system reaching us on Friday. The system will bring with it moisture, giving us rain in the evening and stopping as Saturday approaches. Saturday sees a high pressure system on the surface giving the area spring-like conditions with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 60s. On Sunday, a cold front passes through the area making our temperatures drop back down to the high 40s.

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Forecaster: Cochran, Nixon, Lamb, Travis
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 25 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


The GFS was mainly used today because when compared to the NAM it was more accurate with respect to observed pressure and temperature readings. SREF and GEFS plumes were also used to reference temperatures. The main focus in this forecasting period is a Friday night upper level trough and increasing temperatures during the weekend.

The 250-mb plot shows the subtropical jet pushing south out of the area, it is replaced with an upper level trough on Friday, leaving behind zonal flow until another trough is expected as the weekend comes to a close. The 500-mb level shortwave coincides with strong circulation and an influx of moisture from the low-level jet originating from the Gulf of Mexico evident at the 850-mb level. This supports rain throughout Friday evening beginning around 00Z.

As the upper level trough and moisture move east, we are dominated by zonal flow. Due to a SFC high and WAA, Saturday will see spring-like conditions. A cold front branching off of a low pressure system moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley reaches our area on Sunday, leaving CAA and strong surface winds in its wake.

The next forecasting period should focus on the positively tilted trough coming into the area on Monday.

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday -
Mostly Cloudy. High: 42-46



Thursday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 28-32



Friday -  Mostly sunny w/ increasing PM clouds. High: 48-52
 


Friday Night -
Cloudy with a spot shower before midnight. Low: 34-48

 
Saturday -  Mostly sunny. High: 58-62
 
 
 
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Discussion: 
 
A high pressure system is dominating the region bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to mid-Missouri. For today, clouds will be building as an upper level disturbance moves through. Friday will be a nice day, as well, with the clouds from today passing through overnight tonight. Friday evening will see increasing clouds and the potential for a spot shower before midnight. Saturday will dawn with decreasing clouds introducing a very spring-like day after the long cold that was February.
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Forecaster: Ede
Issued: 9:00 AM CST 25 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


The 00z run of the NAM was used for this forecast. The NAM was handling the initial conditions better than the GFS in the area of upper level moisture. GEFS plumes were used for temperatures though, as all ensembles were showing high confidence in the forecast temperatures. The focus of this forecast is the upper level disturbance that is passing overnight and tomorrow. 

 

Upper level flow is fairly zonal right now. At the surface, there is high pressure dominating, but will be exiting the area this evening as an upper level shortwave trough moves through the area. Spaghetti plots show this shortwave trough enters Missouri around 06z and exits around 12z, making way for an upper level trough that is expected to impact mid-Missouri sometime next week.

 

For Friday, after the shortwave passes, taking with it strong rotational vorticity, there is significant downward vertical motion and very little upper level moisture, indicating a clear day. Friday night, there is a strong Low Level Jet from the Gulf of Mexico pushing moisture into southern Missouri. This introduces the potential for a scattered shower, but there is very little upward motion to generate any significant rain. GEFS mean-spread shows a mean of .01 with a spread of .01, so there is a possibility of no precipitation.

 

For Saturday, the moisture moves to the north and east of Missouri. Zonal flow returns as the next system out West begins to develop. Winds from the southwest will bring warm temperatures and dry air.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 28 - 32


 
Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 42 - 46



Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 26 - 30



Friday -  Mostly sunny w/ increasing PM clouds. Possible evening rain. High: 48 - 52


 
Saturday -  Mostly sunny.  Evening Clouds. High: 58 - 62

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Discussion: 
 
    The end of this week will remain a fairly pleasant one. While there will be a few more clouds than there were earlier in the week, temperatures will remain mild. The main disturbance in the nice weather could be some rain Friday night into Saturday morning. Though, it should be finished by sunrise on Saturday morning. After the rain moves through over night, we should be left with a delightful day that should be enjoyed outside.
 
 
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Forecaster: Gasch, McGuire, Vanderpool
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 24 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

 

The 12z model of the GFS was used to compose this forecast. The GFS appeared to handle the initial conditions at the time of the forecast. SREF and GEFS were used for temperature and precipitation prognostics. The main focus points of this forecast are a period of possible rain Friday evening and a cold front moving through Saturday evening.

 

Both the 250-mb and the 500-mb flows are zonal and will continue to be until a shortwave trough moves into the region Friday morning at about 09z. Vorticity at 500-mb and moisture at 700-mb advects into the area at this time, but the atmosphere at the surface appears too dry for the development of any precipitation. 

 

Later in the day on Friday as the shortwave exits the region, a shallow longwave trough develops of the western half of the US with Missouri in the downstream flow of the trough axis. A shortwave will travel along the trough bringing the possibility of precipitation to the area. With a PW value at 0.56 inches and a moist surface, according to forecast soundings, the precipitation should be light with very little accumulation expected. 

 

The rain moves out over night Friday along with cloud cover, bringing mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Significant WAA on Saturday will bring high temperatures near 60F in the afternoon before clouds move in ahead of the cold front that will move through during the evening and overnight hours.

 

 




 
Wednesday- Partly cloudy. High: 46-50


 
 
Wednesday Night -  Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32



 
 
Thursday - Partly cloudy. High: 42-46



 
Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 26-30


 
 
Friday- Partly cloudy. Light rain showers in the afternoon. High: 48-52


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Discussion: 
A weak cold front moved through last night and caused our temperatures to fall slightly. Conditions will still be pleasant with partly cloudy skies through today and tomorrow. Things will remain calm and quiet as we are under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 40s through the end of the week. We have a slight possibility for some light rain showers Friday afternoon.
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Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 24 February 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast, the NAM was chosen as its current conditions most closely resembled what is happening at the surface now. Calm conditions will be the story for Wednesday and Thursday, but attention will be drawn to Friday's possibility for light rain showers.


At the 250-mb level, there is no distinct jet streak present, but there is a positively tilted trough just to the west of the forecast area contributing to the mild weather that is expected over the next few days. Relative humidity values are low throughout the forecast period at this level.

 

At the 500-mb level, conditions remain calm until 11Z Thursday when circulation makes its way into the area creating upper level cloud decks. The presence of moisture in this level is noticeable as early as 15Z Wednesday through the end of the forecast period.

 

At the 700-mb level, there is still no defined jet streak over the area as zonal flow persists. Moisture continues to stack down beginning at 03Z Friday and is exiting the area by 06Z Saturday. 


The 850-mb level shows the low pressure system that passed through the area last night now located to our northeast. Behind this low, winds have shifted to come out of the north. This wind shift will aid in cooler temperatures for today and tomorrow. Moisture at this level is not noticeable until high relative humidity values appear at 21Z Friday. 

 

Surface level conditions show a surface high passing through the area from 06Z Thursday to 06Z Friday. WAA on the back end of this high pressure system will bring warmer temperatures as well as moisture into the area for Friday. Because moisture is seen stacking down from model soundings throughout the atmosphere Friday afternoon, it is likely that light rain showers will occur. Only trace amounts of accumulation are to be expected.

 

Future forecasters should keep an eye on moisture levels and rain chances throughout the weekend.