Thursday: Plentiful sunshine. High: 68
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46.
Friday: Sunny. High: 67
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 39
Saturday: Abundant sunshine early, partly sunny after noon. High: 54
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Discussion:
The first weekend of December will prove to be a warm one, as temperatures are expected to remain well above average. Thursday will see temperatures approach the Dec. 2nd record of 72, but likely fall just short as we barely cross the 70 degree mark. Friday will be slightly cooler followed by a more substantial temperature drop on Saturday, though conditions will still be very warm for late fall in the middle 50s. Calm and inactive weather will also persist for this period, as the sky will stay clear of clouds until Saturday afternoon, where partial sunshine is expected.
- McDonald
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Forecasters: Aldrich, Duff, McDonald
Date Issued: 12/2/21 10:00 AM CST
Technical discussion:
Both the GFS and the NAM were sloppy in forecasting surface low temperatures for thursday morning. The NAM has forecasted temperatures cooler than are being recorded for Thursday, and the GFS is better at forecasting current surface temperatures. So, the 06z run of the GFS was used to make this forecast. Expect a mild weather pattern in this forecast with warm temperatures and dry conditions being the primary focus.
At 250-mb a plot of heights, winds, and divergence, show a very zonal jet streak remains to our north. Little to no divergence is associated with the streak. The flow continues to be zonal until 21z Saturday when a shortwave trough develops to our west.
Similarly to the previous level, at 500mb a plot of heights, winds, vorticity show very zonal upper-level flow for all of the forecast period. At 21z Saturday the shortwave trough and associated low can be a seen to the west which may have an impact on cloud cover in the lower levels. Yet, little to no vorticity is expected for Mid-Missouri, so conditions will stay dry.
At 700mb there are very low values of relative humidity for most of the forecast period. This will lead to the sunny and dry conditions expected over the next few days as little cloud cover is expected at this level.
On the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperatures, northwesterly flow currently dominates the region. Winds will continue to be out of the west/northwest through 03 Friday. Afterwards, winds will shift to the southwest due to the passage of a ridge ahead of the shortwave to our west. On Saturday winds begin to veer and shift northernly overnight and then veer back to the south during the day on Saturday. The constant veering of the winds and calm conditions will help to keep temperatures warm in the upper 60s but will not allow Columbia to break records. A look at RH values for 850-mb show increasing cloud cover late on Saturday ahead of the shortwave trough to the west, but no precipitation is expected.
Future forecasters should pay attention to the incoming shortwave trough on Saturday and a more active weather pattern for Sunday.
-Duff
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