Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 13

 
 

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 35

Wednesday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 24


 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 42

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear Low: 15

 

 

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Discussion: 

Temperatures will begin to gradually warm up out ahead of an approaching cold front with high temperatures in the mid-30s on Wednesday and into the 40s by Thursday. The frontal passage will be over Mid-Missouri by Thursday afternoon with cold northerly winds on the backside. No precipitation will be associated with the front due to the lack of moisture in the mid to lower levels.

- McCormack

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Forecasters: Smith, McCormack, Peine

Date Issued: 1/31/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

The GFS was favored for this forecast for its better handling of moisture at the time of diagnostics when compared to the NAM. The main focus will be regarding the passage of a cold front midday Thursday but outside of that weather is expected to be calm and clear.


The main upper level system is a low pressure system over northeast Canada. The jet stream, as seen at 250 mb, is currently sitting to the east of Missouri as it follows the LPS out east and northward. Small patches of upper level divergence associated with the exiting jet stream will sporadically frequent the area. The 500 mb map of vorticity shows a strong band moving through the area at 9Z Thursday and then another weaker band will move through the area 3Z Friday. These bands are being driven by a LPS over Baja California and then they are getting picked up and drug over Mid-MO via zonal flow
The major story of the mid to low levels is the lack of moisture. The same aforementioned LPS continues to sit in the far northeastern reaches of Canada at these layers. Throughout the forecast period, this relatively strong system will keep the area dry as strong zonal flow keeps the moisture in the northern states, limiting cloud development. In spite of this, GFS soundings still show occasional upper level cloud development likely due to the aforementioned vorticity bands. Later on, we can see CAA mid Thursday into early Friday morning due to a SFC HPS sitting over MN. There will be a shift in the winds from the west to the north bringing cold air and colder temperatures starting around 15Z Thursday. Columbia’s temperatures, which will have highs in the upper 30’s/low 40’s Wednesday and Thursday, will be cut down as this front moves through bringing the areas highs into the low 30’s for Friday. Due to radiative cooling and calm winds, the low temps on Tuesday and Thursday will reach down to 13F and 15F respectively. On Wednesday evening however there will likely be more clouds shown by soundings holding the low for the evening at 24F.




-Smitty

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 

 

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 24

 
 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 17

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 35


 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 26

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 44

 

 

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Discussion:

Be sure to bundle up today as Mid-Missouri will still be dealing with bitter cold temperatures. Expect a gradual warmup starting Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures will rise above freezing and sunshine will make it's return.

- Simmons

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 1/31/2023 9:30 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Clouds have moved out of the area last night paving way for sunshine to enter Mid-Missouri today. Relatively calm weather will be the focus for the next few forecast periods as a blocking pattern has been the setup recently. This has helped alter numerous storm systems to our south and left us with a colder than average air mass. The 12Z run of both the GFS and NAM were used in their handling of the current state of the surface pressure map as well as their agreement on past temperatures in the last several hours.

Currently, 12Z surface analysis depicts a surface high centered over the Central Plains. This has pushed the cloud cover off to the south and east and allowed for calmer winds. Later today, upper-air zonal flow will permit the merging together of the subtropical and polar jets over the Midwest. The merging jets will bring in multiple areas of wind divergence throughout the Ohio Valley late Tuesday, but will steer far south of our region. Some moisture is apparent in latest model soundings, but sunshine will still be present this afternoon accompanied by some mid-level clouds. Light northerly flow today will also help keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs still around 15-20 degrees below average.

Wednesday will see the dome of high pressure shift eastward. This will begin a wind shift out from the south helping warm temperatures close to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. A band of strong vorticity will be stationed over northern Missouri on Wednesday in accordance with the shortwave in the Desert Southwest. Wednesday night, as the shortwave progresses eastward, areas of circulation will be brought up from the south and combine with the band of strong vorticity. This won't cause significant weather for our area as moisture will be choked off in Mid-Missouri.

The shortwave from the Desert Southwest will move over the South Central US during the day Thursday. Ample moisture will also be present in the Red River Valley and into Arkansas ahead of the shortwave. Plenty of lift will be available with the shortwave Thursday, but it will be confined to the south where we expect the most active weather to be. A gradual warmup is expected from Wednesday-Thursday as 850mb temperatures will rise from -10 degrees Celsius to around 0 degrees Celsius Thursday. It appears that a cold front will be moving into the area from the northwest late in the day on Thursday. Although it appears to be non-impactful, the next forecast shift should monitor how it affects temperatures for Friday.

-Simmons

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Clearing late. Low: 14

 

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 24

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear Low: 17

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 39

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 26

 

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Discussion: 

BRRRR! Temperatures remain below average as we continue our way into the week with winds consistently out of the north keeping wind chills in the teens. Things warm up Wednesday as we see our winds shift from out of the southwest slightly warming things up. Our current pattern will keep us dry for the entirety of the forecast period. 

 

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw

Date Issued: 1/30/2023 5:00 CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

After an active stretch of weather, things look to calm down as the primary storm track will shift systems off to our southwest keeping us calm but cold. A blocking high pattern is locking this long wave trough directly over the eastern half of the United States keeping the south active with repeated storm systems while the north remains bitterly cold and dry. For this forecast we used a blend of the EURO, GFS, and NAM as they all were handling the moisture and temperatures across the region.

 

In the upper levels, as we move into Tuesday a secondary jet streak associated with the subtropical jet will develop across portions of southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. The polar jet continues to shift south Tuesday midday, before the two jets couple, this will lead to the intensification of upper-air winds from 130kts to 160kts by Wednesday morning. This will be timed with a large increase in upper air divergence which will continue to move through the region in waves. This pattern remains locked in place thanks two blocking highs, one located over the pacific and one near the Canadian Maritimes.

 

In the mid levels, we see some moisture at the 700-mb level, with the 850-mb level being fully saturated. This moisture is what is responsible for our cloud cover over the past several days. We see the moisture south south out of the area tonight, leaving us mostly clear for our Tuesday, that is before another push of moisture comes from the southwest. This will again increase mid-level clouds briefly on Wednesday before it gets again shunted off to our south. 

At the surface, light north winds are expected to continue into Tuesday evening before switching to out of the southwest as a surface high pressure gradually shifts over the area. This surface high will be the dominating feature through Wednesday as it sits nearly stationary across the Ohio valley. This overall pattern is going to keep precipitation to our south, keep our temperatures below our seasonal average, and keep our dew points in the single digits. 

-Russell

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 25

 

Monday Night:  Partly Cloudy. Low: 14

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 27

  

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 19

 

Wednesday:Mostly Cloudy. High: 39

 

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Discussion: 

Don't forget your hats and gloves for your morning commute to class! Winter is back after unseasonably warm temperatures this past weekend. Temperatures will stay in the mid-twenties for most of the period before a "warmup" brings temperatures to the mid-thirties on Wednesday.

- Herion

 

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Forecasters: Herion, Jones

Date Issued: 1/30/2023 10:00 CDT

Technical Discussion: 

The problem of the day and for the first part of the week are the frigid temperatures today and tomorrow. Wednesday could see a slight warm-up. While the GFS and NAM sfc maps were in agreement with the placement of the different systems around the country ultimately the GFS was chosen due to its better handling of moisture and temperatures. The NBM was also considered for temperature. 

The 250mb map showed the upper level jet placed along the Midwest as a trough pushes its way through the region. A jet streak will be centered on Missouri Tuesday morning until Wednesday afternoon. The 250mb map does not show any significant upper level divergence. At 500mb vorticity is weak and overall there is strong zonal flow.

 700mb level moisture will remain low through Wednesday for the CWA. Southern portions of Missouri have potential to see wintry precipitation. The 850mb shows strong CAA in the early this afternoon. 

At the surface Missouri is being dominated by a HPS moving east from Kansas  from which is keeping things quiet. The HPS will enter the CWA Tuesday evening and control the area for the remainder of the forecasting period. This keeps the CWA dry and cold for remainder of the forecast period. 

Temperatures will remain in the mid 20s for the highs and mid to upper teens for the lows. This is about 15 degrees below the average January temperatures for Missouri. Wednesday will bring a break to the cold temperatures with a high in the upper 30s. Today and tomorrow will remain cloudy before some sunshine Wednesday to welcome the warmer temperatures.

- Jones

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 30

 

Saturday:  Increasing clouds and gusty winds. High: 53
 

 

Saturday Night: Overcast with light freezing rain. Low: 22

  

 

 

Sunday: Partly cloudy with gusty winds. High: 27

 

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with light winds. Low: 16

 

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Discussion: 

The weekend will start off unseasonably warm with gusty winds from the south on Saturday. A cold front passing from the northwest will drop temperatures back down to below freezing with a chance for light freezing drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning. This may make roads slick on bridges and overpasses. Sunday will remain cold and cloudy with gusty winds from the north.

- Sausen

 

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Forecasters: Sausen, Thomas, McGuire

Date Issued: 1/27/2023 4:20PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

The main concern of this forecast is precipitation Saturday night into Sunday, and strong winds Saturday and Sunday morning. We used the GFS for our forecast, as it handled this morning’s sleet event much better than the NAM.

A large-scale longwave trof is dominating most of North America, centered over the Hudson Bay, while a strong jet streak oriented SW to NE is currently situated from TX all the way up into the Mid-Atlantic region, with a separate weaker maxima from E KS into MO. As both streaks exit the regions, a new jet streak is progged to strengthen and slowly move north, stretching from the OH River Valley into E KS early Saturday morning into Sunday, and an additional jet max is forecast to form over TX Saturday night, leaving plenty of zonal upper level winds over our forecast area.

At 500 mb, the trof that affected our area this morning becomes a lot more apparent, stretching from MN positively tilting down into MO, though it should quickly exit the region by this evening. By late Saturday night into Sunday, a second shortwave is progged to enter the forecast region, with significant PVA in its tow until Sunday at 12Z.

At 700mb, moisture associated with this morning’s shortwave quickly exited the area, not forecast to be replaced until 03Z Sunday, with a plume of moisture overspreading the forecast area until about 12Z Sunday.

Strong moisture transport looks to push a plume from TX up into MO, meeting a frontally-driven area of moisture at the 850mb level Saturday afternoon, persisting well into Sunday evening. WAA starting tonight looks to overtake our forecast area, before being replaced by CAA around Sunday at 09z. Otherwise a strong LLJ out of the SW is mixing to the surface as forecasted, and is progged to persist into Saturday night, keeping winds at the sfc gusty.

At the surface, our forecast area is situated in the col between the two lows off to our northeast and west, and the high over the Southeast, keeping sfc winds light and variable until the western low takes precedence Saturday morning.

Our main concern is the possibility of light precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. The DGZ looks to remain rather unsaturated through the period of concern, with the top of the moist layer remaining around -8C. This will most likely result in a light rain transitioning over to freezing drizzle by 09Z, although with a slight amount of vertical ascent from the advancing front there may be a bit of snow mixed in during the morning hours. QPF should be minimal, with only minor travel impacts expected.

As for our temps, we should stay slightly above climo for tonight, and in the 50’s tomorrow. Cold air should make its way into our area Saturday night pushing us into the mid to upper 20’s all day Sunday.


- Thomas

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 46

 

 

Friday Night: Clouds moving in over night. Low: 32

 
 

 

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 50

  

 

 

Saturday Night: Increasing clouds, chance of mixed precipitation. Low: 22

 

Sunday: Overcast clouds, decreasing in the evening. High: 25

 

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Discussion: 

This weekend we will see some above average temperatures. However, on Saturday night there will be a cold front that will usher in a shift in wind direction from southwest to northwest, along with a increased chance of mixed light preciptitation over night. This will bring our temperatures back down to the winter average. 

- Allen

 

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Forecasters: Sallot, Allen, McGuire

Date Issued: 1/27/2023 10:27 AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The main concern of this forecast is the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday and the cold air following the front. Both the GFS and the NAM were used to construct this forecast, but it should be noted that the GFS had a better handle on current conditions.


The jet stream is expected to remain overhead for the entire forecast period, encouraging zonal flow in the upper levels until about Saturday at 18Z, when the winds take on a slight southerly component, but overall flow is still mostly westerly. Upper level divergence is expected around Saturday night into Sunday, around 00Z to 3Z on Sunday, which may support the formation of precipitation.


At 500 mb, vorticity may be advected into the region around Sunday from 03Z to 12Z, but the NAM is expecting a greater intensity of such compared to the GFS, but this feature is present on both models. This vorticity at this time frame may lend to formation of precipitation Saturday night.


Additionally, moisture at 700 mb is expected to enter the CWA around Sunday at 06Z through 18z, however, the NAM is expecting much less than the GFS. Again, there is some model disagreement on the intensity, but the appearance of the structure is similar in shape and timing.


As winds shift from west to a more southwesterly flow at 850 mb around Saturday at 12Z, coupled with the LLJ, this may encourage moisture to enter the CWA ahead of the front. The NAM is expecting a much stronger LLJ that pushes further north than the GFS; this may contribute to the difference in moisture present in each model at 700 mb. Either way, the presence of this LLJ from the southwest may help to encourage precipitation Saturday night.


WAA and southerly flow Saturday will help to warm temperatures into the high 40s and low 50s on Friday and Saturday, but the passage of the cold front Saturday night will likely drop temperatures into the 20s for Sunday. This cold front is expected to pass through the CWA around 00Z to 03Z Saturday night. Along with this cold front, precipitation is expected. Due to the warm temperatures on Saturday, the precipitation will likely be rain, but may transition to snow depending the pace of dropping temperatures. Even if it does snow, the ground temperatures will be too warm for any accumulation. Overall, precip amount is expected to be minimal, lending to minimal, if any, impacts due to this precip.


Sunday should remain cloudy for much of the daylight hours keeping temperatures low, before the clouds dissipate in the afternoon.

 

- Sallot

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 23

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly Sunny with Increasing Clouds by Afternoon. High: 46

 

 

 

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low 32

  

 

 

 

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High 50

 

 

Saturday Night: Becoming Overcast with Slight Chance of Rain. Low: 24

 

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Discussion: 

Temperatures warming up above average for the weekend! Winds will be following right behind the warmer air, so it may be a bit breezy at times. By Saturday as we roll into the overnight hours our next cold front makes an appearance bringing with it a chance of some lighter precipitation. This also cools us down back to average.

-Labit

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Forecasters: Labit, Macko, Easter

Date Issued: 1/26/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS and NAM were in agreeance until uncertainty began late Saturday with both mid/upper-level moisture not being as prominant in the NAM. Both models were used, but with WAA throughout Friday into Saturday this better supports the idea of moisture in the area. With precipitation becoming increasingly likely through late Saturday night we agreed more with the GFS.

 

The upper-level jet is spaced just southeast of Central Missouri for Thursday evening, but by Friday morning the jet will shift further over the Midwest with no signs of moving through the remainder of the weekend. This combined with sparce areas of divergence aloft, moderate vorticity, and upper-level moisture this could result in some upper-level clouds developing into Friday. Surface analysis suggests a sharp shift in wind direction, changing from a more westerly flow to a primarily southernly flow, late Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will warm to above average because of this shift. As warmer air flows more north, surface winds will strengthen bringing consistetly breezy conditions throughout Friday. Conditions for cloud development also hold together through Friday afternoon with WAA and mid/upper-level moisture present. More low level moisture builds in from the south as well as vertical forcing as we move into Saturday evening suggesting mostly cloudy conditions by late Saturday afternoon. As this moisture builds from the south a high-

pressure system will drive a cold front from the Dakotas SE into Missouri through the overnight hours into early Sunday morning bring with it a slight chance of rain and greatly reducing temperatures by Sunday.

 

-Labit

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 29

 

 

Thursday Night: Increasing cloud cover. Low: 23

 

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 44

  

 

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 32

 

 

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

 

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Discussion: 

Unfortunately, temperatures remain below freezing for today, however, warmer weather is on the way with a chance to reach into the 50's this Saturday. It is important to note there will be high winds impacting Columbia the next couple days, as we may experience gusts up to 30mph. Make sure to hold on to those hats during your weekend hikes!

-Hefner

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Forecasters: Hefner, Macko, Samson

Date Issued: 1/26/2023 11:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

Following Wednesday's snow there will be high winds on Friday and Saturday. For forecasting, a mixture of NAM and GFS models were used.

On Thursday the positively tilted trough that was noted on previous forecast shifts will persist in the CWA until early Friday when it will push out eastward and will bring zonal flow into the CWA. The zonal flow will produce calm weather throughout Thursday; however, the calm weather will not continue into Friday.

During Friday a center of low pressure will be moving through the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Ontario. The low-pressure system will bring high winds out of the west. Analysis of SREF ensembles suggest high-sustained wind speeds on Friday. Additionally, for this Friday, expect an uptick in cloud cover as well. The aforementioned low pressure system in Canada will bring significant relative humidity values (70% to 90%) into the CWA from 12z to 15z. The relative humidity is accompanied with noticeable vorticity on the 500 mb level lasting from 12z Friday to 00z Saturday. Combining these observations with GFS sounding data showing saturation at the 700 mb level from 12z to 15z, it is likely mid-level clouds will form. Additionally, the low pressure system will bring high winds out of the west. Overnight on Friday, soundings show saturation around the 850 mb level as well as some negative Omega, expect low level clouds Friday night into Saturday morning.

Rounding out the forecast on Saturday, another low-pressure system forming along the Central Plains will continue the streak of high winds; however, because of the location of the low relative to the CWA, winds will be out of the southwest, raising temperatures into the fifties.

Future forecasting shifts should be aware of increasing low-level saturation and rising negative Omega values that could lead to light precipitation overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. As Saturday night turns into Sunday morning, temperatures drop below freezing which could lead to light snow. However, there is a dry layer between the saturated area of the atmosphere and the surface, so watch how that develops to determine whether it will snow. Additionally, during Saturday night, using surface winds it can be seen that a cold front will pass through the CWA.

-Samson