Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 19
 

Thursday: Decreasing clouds throughout the day. High: 29
 

 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy.  Low: 23

Friday: Increasing cloud cover. High: 44

Friday Night:  Mostly Cloudy. Low: 32

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

====================================================================

Discussion:

Thursday will shape up to be a much chillier day as we barely get above freezing. However, we'll be able to see a bit of sunshine by the afternoon. Be prepared to warm up your car and defrost the windshield these next few mornings as we head towards the weekend.

 =================================================================

Forecasters: Cook, Chirpich and Travis

Date Issued: 1/25/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Quiet weather will be following the system that brought many inches of snow to Southern Missouri Tuesday night. However, any snow accumulations that haven't yet melted will most definitely be gone come Friday night, as temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to high 40's. We chose to lean on the GFS model for formulating our forecast, due to the GFS more accurately representing the observed current weather conditions. 

At 300mb, there is a trough that is impacting the CWA. This trough remains overhead, and is projected to move out of our area early Friday morning. Following this trough will be a prolonged period of zonal upper level wind flow, suggesting calm conditions leading into Saturday. At 500mb, moderate vorticity signatures are modeled around Friday morning. Couple this with mid level moisture that is present at the same time at the 700mb level, and mid level clouds can be expected to develop in the early morning hours Friday. This is supported by model soundings showing saturation around the 700mb layer early Friday morning, and then dissipating later that same morning. The vorticity at 500mb is associated with a Low pressure system residing over lower parts of Manitoba and Western Ontario, which will subsequently bring a front through the Missouri area Friday morning. Low level clouds can be expected throughout the rest of the workweek, as 850mb models suggest the presence of moderate amounts of moisture, ample enough for the development of clouds. This is supported by model GFS soundings showing saturation around the 850mb level from Wednesday night to Thursday morning, and throughout most of Friday. Surface analysis shows that wind direction will stay pretty consistent from Wednesday night into Thursday evening, with the prevailing wind being from the west. Then, with the passage of the front overnight, the winds shift dramatically, to a Southwesterly prevailing wind. Then, later in the day, the winds will shift once again, back to westerly winds. Southerly wind flow on Friday will cause higher daytime temperatures than the seasonal average.

Cook