Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 25

 

 

 

 

Thursday : Mostly Sunny. High: 45

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 37

 

 

 

 

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 63

 

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 25

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

As we enter the back half of the week there will be below average temperatures tonight as the Jet streak is over the area. As the jet streak moves out of the area the CWA will return temperatures to the 40’s. Moving into Friday we will have southerly winds bringing some clouds and temperatures above average into the 60’s. Looking into the weekend there will be clear skies and 40’s.

 -Jones

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 11/30/2022 6:30 PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

The midweek brings the upper-level jet streak over Missouri caused by a trough moving over the area., causing the drop in temperature the CWA experienced today. Due to the large amounts of disagreement between the GFS, NAM and NWS surface map we chose the GFS because it historically shows a better handling of calm weather.


The 250Mb map has a trough across the area bringing the upper-level jet stream into the CWA. A weak ridge moving into the area will push the jet streak out of the area by Thursday 00:00Z. The end of the week brings in a trough keeping the upper-level jet steam in the CWA for the remainder of the forecasting period. At the 500mb level vorticity is not seen in the area during the whole forecasting period.


The 700mb map shows a LPS to the NW of Missouri continuing to be pushed into Canada leaving Missouri in zonal flow cause low humidity levels for the whole forecasting period. Another LPS will pass through the north, Saturday 03:00Z, but the moisture stays north of Missouri. At the 850mb level there is moisture entering the area at 06:00Z Friday due to the LLJ. The low LLJ continues to strengthen throughout the day reflected in the strengthening of the moisture transport vectors. The moisture will move out by 06:00Z Saturday.


At the surface a warm front will move through the area on 03:00Z Thursday which brings a wind shift from the North to the South driving warm, moist air, supported by the LLJ as seen on the 850mb map. This will increase throughout the day as the winds pick up from 5 mph at 12:00Z Thursday to 20mph at 15:00Z Friday. A cold front will pass through the area at 03:00Z Saturday bringing another wind shift back to the North bringing colder air into the area.


Thursday will bring warmer temperatures and an above average high on Friday of 63 due to winds shifting from the east to the south. Temperatures from the GFS plumes show the influence of the upper-level map’s jet steak over our CWA this afternoon bringing the low to 25 tonight. The warm front shown by the surface map at 03:00Z will bring warmer temperatures, giving Sanborn a high of 45 on Thursday and a low of 37. Friday will bring even warmer temperatures due to the southern winds. This will bring the high to 63. Due to the LPS passing through the CWA on Saturday at 03:00Z, a cold front will drop the temperatures through the night reaching down to 25. GFS soundings show clouds will enter the area by 06:00Z Friday. As the day progresses, the cloud coverage will increase. The weekend will bring regular seasonal temperatures and clear skies.

-Jones

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 39

 

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 23

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 48

 

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 39

 

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 63

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

The second half of the week has temperatures to please everyone- unseasonably cold today with highs in the upper 30's, Thursday will be closer to average with highs in the upper 40's, and Friday will be above average with highs in the low 60's! Cloud cover will slowly increase Thursday going into Friday before a chance for rain Friday night.

 -Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell

Date Issued: 11/30/2022 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

After active weather early this week, quiet conditions look to settle in for the next few days across the Midwest as the trough pushes east and is replaced by a weak ridge Wednesday and Thursday. Looking at the possibility of rain late Friday into Saturday morning, but some uncertainty exists with the magnitude of moisture return. The GFS, Euro, and NAM are all in good agreement, so each was used with equal consideration for this forecast. 

Fairly strong NW flow in the upper levels has brought in an unseasonably cold air mass into MO. This looks to sit in place through Thursday morning before winds become more westerly and we fall into a more zonal pattern, with weak ridging present on Friday. By Friday night into early Saturday morning, jet stream winds over 120 kts will move into MO along with a weak shortwave.

Strong CAA aided by winds up to 40 kts in the mid levels will exit the region by 6z Thursday, but not before dropping lows into the low 20's Thursday morning. High pressure and an associated ridge centered over eastern TX will swing through Thursday late-morning, shifting us into a more southerly/south-westerly flow regime. With strong mid-level winds still present, increased moisture will start working its way into the area, especially by Friday morning. This area of moisture is of particular interest, as it will dictate our rain chances heading into the overnight hours of Friday/ Saturday morning. Models are in good agreement that a weak shortwave and associated cold front will move through central MO 0-3z Saturday, but moisture may not be plentiful enough to deliver meaningful rain. Future forecasters will want to moniter the magnitude of moisture return ahead of the frontal passage when considering rain chances for Friday night and Saturday morning. 

WNW surface winds will continue to weaken as we move through Wednesday as a surface high moves over southern MO. Nothing in the way of clouds expected today, but Thursday will see mostly sunny conditions as the high moves east and our flow becomes southerly. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the upcoming shortwave will bring in blustery conditions Friday, with winds gusting to 20 kts across the area. Strong WAA/ dense solenoids will shoot temperatures up above average on Friday before the FROPA late Friday night.

-Shaw

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Clearing Overnight. Low: 25

 

 

 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 39

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 26

 

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 48

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 39

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

A cold front will pass over mid-Missouri around 9PM on Tuesday. This cold front will drop our temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday. As winds shift to the south on Thursday, warming will ensue.

 -Meier

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Forecasters: Macko, Simmons, Meier

Date Issued: 11/29/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 The GFS20 was the model that was mainly used as it resolved Tuesday morning temperatures slightly better than the NAM12 which was running warm. However, both models were in agreement and were used to forecast. The problem of the day is the cold front that will be passing through Tuesday night.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough is seated over the Great Plains. The trough and jet stream will move into mid-Missouri around 6Z Wednesday, before exiting our region by Wednesday at 18Z. With the presence of the trough gone, a ridge will dominate our region for the entirety of our forecast shift. 

 

In the mid levels, the trough that passes over us will bring us a strong band of vorticity from 3Z to 9Z Wednesday. Even though there is significant vorticity, very low relative humidity and Omega diminishes any chance of rain. After the trough and vorticity leave, ridging will dominate. Relative humidity and Omega values will remain very low throughout the entire week.

In the low levels, analysis of wind and temperatures indicate the presence of a cold front, and is expected to pass over mid-Missouri around 3Z Wednesday. After the front passes, cold air advection (CAA) takes place. CAA is expected over mid-Missouri until a surface high moves over us Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A very strong low level jet with winds greater than 60 knots is anticipated to move directly over us Friday at 3Z. This strong LLJ will advect moisture and warm air into mid-Missouri overnight on Thursday. Warm air advection is very prominent starting Thursday night and lasting until the end of our forecast period.

-Meier

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 66

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clouds decreasing overnight. Low: 25

 

 

 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 39

 

 

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds overnight. Low: 23

 

 

 

Thursday: Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 48

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

A very strong cold front will be moving through mid-Missouri Tuesday evening dropping the well above average temperatures Tuesday afternoon to below freezing overnight. After the frontal passage, Wednesday looks to be colder than average eventually warming back up to normal on Thursday. 

 -Ritsema

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker

Date Issued: 11/29/2022 9:30 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Due to Tuesday morning temperature accuracy, the GFS was the main model used in our forecast as NAM was 15 degrees off on the current temperature Tuesday morning. Although, the NBM was used to aid in the precision of the temperature forecast.

At 300 hPa,a coupled jet stream is currently situated over most of the central and eastern portions of the CONUS, along with it strong southwesterly winds. The polar jet is positively tilted over the Central Plains, transitioning to a negative tilt Wednesday at 03z. This occurs after the frontal passage in mid-Missouri keeping the more active weather to the southeast. Winds shift to the northwest on the backside of this trough funneling cool dry air into Missouri. Divergence is absent throughout the forecast period.

 

Plenty of vorticity is associated with this trough, but not so much the frontal passage. Elevated levels of vorticity can be seen behind the frontal passage between Wednesday 03z and 18z. It is only until Thursday afternoon when we begin to see weak bands of vorticity move back into the area which will lead to cloud cover Thursday afternoon. Like at the 300 hPa level, winds are from the southwest Tuesday, northwest after the cold front, returning to the southwest again on Thursday.

Moisture is not present at the 700 hPa level Tuesday along the cold front until it moves into the southeast portions of Missouri and western Illinois. After the cold front passes a band of moisture moves into the area, although, it most likely won't be enough to produce any precipitation. The absence of vertical velocity hinders the production of precipitation, yet there will be cloud formation. Wednesday is very dry as cool air from the northwest is being pushed into mid-Missouri. Winds then shift back to southwest due to a high pressure system moving through Arkansas, warming Missouri back to average levels.

A strong southwesterly low level jet, with winds reaching 70 knots, is the main forcing mechanism to the well-above average temperatures Tuesday. That quickly changes, though, after the back-end of the trough reaches the CWA. Winds shift to the northwest at 40 knots around Wednesday at 03z bringing in cold dry air from the Northern Plains. Thursday a wind shift to the southwest will bring along warm moist air allowing for cloud formation Thursday afternoon.

At the surface, the cold front can be seen passing through mid-Missouri between Tuesday 21z and Wednesday 00z. Winds are from the southwest on Tuesday, northwest on Wednesday, and from the south on Thursday. On Wednesday, expect a harsh cool down after the frontal passage, solenoids suggest rapid cold air advection after the front passes.

-Ritsema

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 43

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 64

 

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Significantly colder.
Low: 25

 

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 35

 

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 24

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

Get ready for a weather roller coaster this week! The warming trend will end tomorrow evening as a cold front will pass through bringing temperatures down into the 20s and 30s for Wednesday.

- Herion

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Forecasters: Cook, Herion, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 11/28/2022 5:00pm CST

Technical Discussion:

Nice weather to start out the week, right? Well, it unfortunately wont last. From severe weather in the southeast region of the United States to a biting cold front for the rest of the central and eastern states, it's shaping up to be an active weather week. For current weather conditions, both the NAM and the GFS were fairly close, so a blend of both models, along with the NBM, were used in the making of this forecast. 

The notable event for this forecast period is the passage of the long wave trough Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This trough is going to be bringing with it the likelihood for significant severe weather in the southeastern part of the United States Tuesday evening. However, this is out of our CWA. What will be in our CWA is a powerful cold front being ushered in by the surface low situated over Lake Superior. This cold front will pass through mid-Missouri Tuesday evening. This passage will drop the temperatures by nearly 40 degrees (Fahrenheit). 

Upper level models show the long wave trough moving off the rocky mountains into the central US during Tuesday. 500mb data shows significant vorticity signatures over Missouri throughout Tuesday Night. however, there seems to be a lack of upper level moisture, rendering the vorticity harmless. 700mb data and 850mb shows a little bit of moisture present, but not enough to suggest any precipitation. This is supported by model soundings showing a lack of deepened saturation that would suggest precipitation. However, model soundings do show lower level saturation around 850mb from late Tuesday morning to Tuesday afternoon, suggesting low level cloud cover. The cloud cover will dissipate for a short while. After the cold front passes Tuesday evening, the cloud cover will pick up again as suggested by saturation that is below 850mb height. This cloud cover will dissipate later Tuesday night, some time after midnight, leading way to a clear sky for the rest of the forecast period.

Looking out ahead of our forecast period, there seems to be a good chance for rain over the weekend, and future forecasting shifts should monitor the development of this system.
 

- Cook

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday - Sunny. High: 53

 

 

Monday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 44

 

Tuesday - Partly cloudy. High: 64

 

Tuesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Cold. Low: 26

 

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 35

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

After some good rain over the weekend, a warmup is on the way for the early week. Winds predominately out of the south will warm daytime highs into the 60s by Tuesday before winter-like temperatures come back with a vengeance. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night dropping temperatures down into the 20s by Wednesday morning. Steady, northwest winds around 10-15 mph Wednesday will make the forecast high in the 30s feel much colder. 

- Travis

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Forecasters: Travis

Date Issued: 11/28/2022 9:00am CST

Technical Discussion:

The main concern for the short term is a strong cold front that will move through the region Tuesday evening behind which a blast of arctic air will cause temperatures to plummet back to below average. With no significant differences between the NAM and GFS, a blend of the two models was used in consort with MOS for temperatures leading up to frontal passage (fropa). 

A longwave trough over the western half of the Lower 48 will keep the atmosphere deceivingly active for the early part of the week. A southern push of the jet stream will keep the storm track well to the south in the Lower Mississippi River Valley where severe weather is expected Tuesday. As the trough slides to the east, it will amplify and push an embedded shortwave through the Great Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Ahead of said trough, flow at all levels will be out of the southwest. In the upper levels, this will aid in positive vorticity advection (PVA) while in the lower levels, this will aid in efficient WAA. 

Ingredients are present for active weather associated with this system, but what we lack is any semblance of timing. Mid- to low-level WAA will be present well ahead of the attendant cold front, but deep-layer saturation will not come to fruition until after the passage of the cold front Tuesday evening when WAA induced forcing is gone. Behind the front, a broad area of PVA gives the impression that dynamic forcing for ascent will be sufficient for precipitation. However, model soundings reveal a different story with a lack of deep saturation at any forecast hour. The best opportunity for precipitation (from thermodynamic profiles alone) looks to occur overnight Tuesday into Wednesday (Wed 06-09Z), but skepticism remains high. First, dry layers in the lower levels will hurt ice crystals' chances at reaching the ground. Second, the PVA mentioned above was plotted for the 700-300-hPa layer which, above about 600 hPa, is bone dry. Without any forcing for ascent in the more moist lower levels, hydrometeors will struggle to grow and will likely not make it through the near-surface dry layer. Currently thinking is not to expect any precipitation with this fropa, but an increase in low-level moisture could support some light flurries early Wednesday morning.

So, while this cold front will be strong enough to cause temperatures to plummet about 40 degrees in 12 hours, it appears that will be all it does. Behind the front, cold, dry, arctic, air sets up with high pressure that will build in Wednesday. Though sunshine will be plentiful, high temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 30s. 

- Travis

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 Friday Night: Clear. Low: 18

 

 

 

 

Saturday: Mostly Clear. High: 35

 

 

 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 17

 

 

 

Sunday: Clear. High: 43

 

 

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 29

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

 The cold will be sticking around especially during the football game tomorrow! Grab some gloves, hats, and coats if you're headed out. Some afternoon clouds on Saturday then generally sunny/clear for the remainder of the weekend!

 

-Labit

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Forecasters: Allen, Labit, Easter, Travis

Date Issued: 11/18/2022 5:30pm CST

Technical Discussion:

This weekend will be dry and cold, while also being a little breezy on Saturday. Due to there being little to no saturation, while analyzing both the GFS and the NAM, the chance of there being any precipitation this weekend is very small. At times like late Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon when there is some upper-air moisture there also happens to be cold air advection, sinking air, which is not conducive to producing many clouds, let alone rain or snow. With the cold front that came through Mid-MO this Thursday, the jet stream covering most of Missouri and the southern half of America, and soundings showing few if any clouds this weekend, Friday and Saturday night lows are expected getting as low as the upper teens. Thus continuing this winter-like weather for a little while longer, which is well below the average for this time of year. However, with the jet stream moving away from Mid-MO after Sunday morning, in comes southerly winds and slightly warmer temperatures up to the low 40's.

 

 

- Allen  

  

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 27

 

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 18

 

 

 

Saturday: Few Clouds in the Afternoon. High: 35

 

 

 

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 17

 

 

Sunday: Sunny. High: 43

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion: 

High temperatures today will not break the freezing mark today due to the passage of a cold front that has reinforced the cold air. Another cold front is expected to pass through the region midday tomorrow that will bring another shot of cold air that will keep our tempratures well-below average (avg: high:54; low:35) for the remainder of the weekend. For those headed to the Mizzou football game tomorrow evening, be sure to dress warm and wear plenty of layers because temperatures will be in the 20s during the game.

- Peine

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Forecasters: Peine, McCormack, Aldrich

Date Issued: 11/18/2022 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

A blend of both the 06Z run of the GFS and NAM were used for this forecast. Both models had a good consensus with temperatures for the forecast period with the only excpetion being Saturday's high temperatures. The NAM seems to be cold biased while the GFS seems to be warm biased, so a blend between the two models was used for Saturday's forecast. The problem of the day is forecasting the well-below average (avg: high:54; low:35) temperatures.

At 250mb, an amplified trough is currently positioned over the Great Lakes region that is placing us in a strong northwesterly flow aloft. At 500mb, there are currently two shortwaves present around our area. There is one that moved by the area last night that brought a cold front through the region and a second one that is currently positioned over Nebraska. The second shortwave and its corresponding cold front will move through the region tomorrow during the late morning hours, which will reinforce more cold air advection, leading to the continuation of winter-like temperatures for the weekend. At 700mb and 850mb, moisture is limited with the only potential for clouds being assoicated with the passage of the cold front on Saturday, therefore dry conditions will be present this weekend. At the surface, an area of low pressure is positioned over the Great lakes and last nights cold front over southeast Missouri.

 

Temperatures will remain well-below average for the entirety of the weekend with today and Saturday being the coldest days due to strong cold air advection in the wake of the two cold fronts. Temperatures will try to rebound on Sunday with backing winds from north to southwest Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for warm air advection. Even with sunny conditions and warm air advection on Sunday, temperatures will remain well-below average for this time of the year.

 

The amplified trough over the eastern CONUS will begin to move off to the east allowing for a ridge to move in from the west at the beginning of next week. This could potentially be the start of a warming trend that future forecasting shifts should look out for.

- Peine, McCormack