Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 63
Thursday: Partly Sunny, Increase Clouds Late. High: 74
Thursday Night: Rain, T-Storms Possible. Low: 34
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Discussion:
Enjoy the warm temperatures tomorrow as a cold front sweeps through the region taking away our warm temperatures. Thursday night will also bring rain showers beginning in the evening and ending early Friday morning. The cold temperatures will persist through the end of the week into the weekend with highs in the mid-40s and lows in the mid-20s. Our November weather is finally here.
-Jones
Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith
Date Issued: 11/9/2022 6:00 PM CST
The NAM was used as the primary model due to its better handling of the current moisture and a more accurate representation of pressure systems across the country.
Across all levels of the atmosphere we can see a low pressure system over the West-Central US. This LPS will be the dominant factor for our weather throughout the remainder of the week. Following the 250 mb pressure contours, the jet stream will be pushed south of Columbia giving us freezing temperatures on Friday. Prior to our freezing temperatures, we will see small maxes of upper-level divergence and vorticity line up perfectly over Central MO at 6Z Fri. Following this line another larger band of lower vorticity associated with the aforementioned LPS will cross Mid-MO Saturday morning .
There is plenty of moisture in the area looking at both 700 and 850 RH maps which will give us ample opportunity for rain showers. The atmosphere will be plenty saturated for cloud development. Mid to low level clouds will begin forming Wednesday Night and they will likely dissipate going into the late morning hours on Friday.
A surface LPS over the Rockies with an attached cold front will drive our weather on Thursday. Ahead of this front is plenty of moisture, as mentioned above, and can be seen in the surface dew point temperature map as well. The precipitation will begin with the passing of the cold front at 0Z Friday. The cold front will bring rain and shift the winds currently out of the south to out of the north causing CAA and the rapid decline of our temperatures. The heaviest of the rain is expected to occur around 6Z Friday because of upper level divergence and 500 mb vort maxes at this time. This leads to a chance for thunderstorms to develop, however NAM soundings show low levels of CAPE. There will likely be heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder but nothing stronger than that. The rain will begin to clear out getting into the morning Friday, being completely cleared out by 15Z due to the mid level dry layer seen on soundings. As mentioned earlier, temperatures will plummet with the passing of the cold front. The high of 74F on Thursday will drop down to 34F for the low. The Friday high will be in the 40’s and the low will be well below freezing in the low 20’s. From Wednesday to Friday we see a 41 degree difference in high temperatures.
Hurricane Nicole appears to be headed towards MO however an inverted surface trough and the Polar Jet Stream aloft will turn Nicole away to the east.
Another forming LPS over the West Coast in Oregon and Washington state will likely be the major driver for next week's forecasts. Future forecasters should continue to monitor the approaching cold front for updates.
-Smitty
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