Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 39
Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 19
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 27
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 18
Saturday: Sunny. High: 37
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Discussion:
Cloudy skies Thursday should slowly give way to sunshine as we finish off the week, though a cold front will bring temperatures down a few degrees for Friday. With highs in the upper 30s and lows in the upper teens, it looks like winter's finally sticking around this time.
Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, Sallot
Date Issued: 11/17/2022 9:00 AM CST
Cloud movements show cyclonic flow in visible satellite imagery with light cloud cover over Missouri Thursday morning. Rap analysis shows the left entrance region of a jet streak positioned over the CWA throughout the forecast period. GFS model runs were used for upper air analysis due to it handling current temperatures much better than the NAM. The primary focus of this forecast is the movement of colder air into the CWA along with the slight possibility of snow flurries on Thursday night.
Starting at 250mb, a jet streak is positioned over the CWA Thursday 21Z through Friday 06Z and moves southeast slowly through this time period. The CWA remains in the left entrance region of the Polar Jet throughout the rest of the forecast period, indicating convergence aloft. Divergence levels are negligible over the CWA throughout the forecast period as a result of this.
There is a band of high vorticity at 500mb that moves through the CWA Friday 09Z through Saturday 03Z in association with a shortwave trough. Winds are out of the west until Sunday 00Z where they switch to a more northerly component, hinting at the fact of a frontal passage for colder air being advected into the area.
At 700mb, an area of relative humidity of approximately 80% moves over the CWA Thursday 15Z to 18Z transported by northwesterly winds. This will result in cloud cover throughout Thursday. Winds progress toward a westerly flow influenced by until Saturday 21Z where they return to a northerly component.
Temperatures at 850mb remain approzimately -10C from Friday 00Z through the forecast period. Winds are out of the northwest and slowly progress toward a westerly flow through the forecast period, further supporting the facts above.
Surface solenoids support CAA Friday 00Z to Saturday 00Z and Saturday 18Z. Winds make a temporary switch to a southwesterly flow Saturday morning until Saturday 18Z where the second wave of CAA occurs.
GFS soundings show low moisture content throughout the forecast period with an exception on Thursday night. A small layer of low-level moisture with precipitable water values of approximately 0.3in support a slight chance of scattered snow flurries at most. Surface temperatures are above freezing, eliminating the chance for snow accumulation at the surface.
The significant CAA through the forecast period will keep temperatures below average for the weekend. Combined with winds of 10-15 knots will make conditions uncomfortable for most in the CWA. A lack of lift aloft along with relatively low moisture content will mitigate chances for significant snowfall through the forecast period.
-Sausen
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