Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

     Friday Night: Cloudy sky. Thunderstorms starting after sunset. 

     Low: 47

  Saturday: Chance of showers ending by 11am. Clouds decreasing throughout the day. High: 55
 

 

 

  Saturday Night: Mostly clear night. Fog developing before sunrise         Low: 45

 

 

  

 Sunday: Clear sky. High: 69

  Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Fog developing before sunrise. Low: 45

 

 

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Discussion: 

A low-pressure system and its associated cold front will move in Friday night after sunset. Thunderstorms moving in from far eastern Kansas are expected to produce heavy rain with accumulations near 1". Lingering showers will taper off Saturday before the 11am kickoff.

 

-Allen

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Forecasters: Labit, Travis, Allen

Date Issued: 11/4/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The NAM will be used due to a synoptic scale disagreement with precipitation forecasting. GFS claims scattered showers throughout the day while the NAM holds all rain West around the KC area until 21z Friday. Additionally, the GFS is slower with frontal passage than NAM which seems unlikely given the current position of the front seen in current observations. The main concern is the possibility of strong to severe weather taking place 21z Friday through 03z Saturday.

An elongated, upper-level trough has been developing in the West stretching from Canada down across the Rockies into the northern sector of Texas. The jet stream will continue to linger aloft bringing upper-level winds topping 130kts in the strongest points. This will march east into the Midwest by Friday afternoon bringing along with it strong divergence aloft. At 500mb, a strengthening low-pressure system in northeastern New Mexico traveling east will be aiding in strong vorticity as well at the referenced time. Upper-level moisture will arrive in the central plains early Friday and continue to saturate the atmosphere through Friday night; make note of breakage in clouds at times which will allow surface heating for more unstable conditions. Before the frontal passage, warm air advection is also present at Friday afternoon increasing the build up of clouds once moisture is in the region. Saturation continues lower in the atmosphere helping the buildup of stratus clouds keeping the Mississippi River Valley mostly cloudy through the remainder of Friday/Friday night. As the low-pressure system shifts north it will throttle the supply of moisture and will keep most of the Midwest clear of cloud development into Saturday.

Past Saturday 18z the low-pressure system shifts gears from a more Easterly motion to a NNE motion through the rest of the afternoon. The movement of the jet stream forces the low-pressure system to take this course with it keeping the trend of warmer air flowing from the Gulf across the states for more above average temperatures. Furthermore, this realignment clears most weather out allowing the states impacted by this rain to dry and should expect to see mostly sunshine. By the end of the period, a very weak cold front will approach mid-Missouri. This lacks any significant upper-level dynamic support and attendant moisture, so not expecting any impactful weather from this.

- Labit