Wednesday, November 30, 2022

 


 



Wednesday:
Sunny. High: 39
 
 
 
 



Wednesday Night:
Mostly Clear. Low: 23
 
 




Thursday:
Mostly Sunny. High: 48
 
 
 
 



Thursday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 39




 

Friday:
Partly Sunny. High: 63

 

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Discussion: 

The second half of the week has temperatures to please everyone- unseasonably cold today with highs in the upper 30's, Thursday will be closer to average with highs in the upper 40's, and Friday will be above average with highs in the low 60's! Cloud cover will slowly increase Thursday going into Friday before a chance for rain Friday night.

 -Shaw
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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell

Date Issued: 11/30/2022 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion: 
After active weather early this week, quiet conditions look to settle in for the next few days across the Midwest as the trough pushes east and is replaced by a weak ridge Wednesday and Thursday. Looking at the possibility of rain late Friday into Saturday morning, but some uncertainty exists with the magnitude of moisture return. The GFS, Euro, and NAM are all in good agreement, so each was used with equal consideration for this forecast. 

Fairly strong NW flow in the upper levels has brought in an unseasonably cold air mass into MO. This looks to sit in place through Thursday morning before winds become more westerly and we fall into a more zonal pattern, with weak ridging present on Friday. By Friday night into early Saturday morning, jet stream winds over 120 kts will move into MO along with a weak shortwave.

Strong CAA aided by winds up to 40 kts in the mid levels will exit the region by 6z Thursday, but not before dropping lows into the low 20's Thursday morning. High pressure and an associated ridge centered over eastern TX will swing through Thursday late-morning, shifting us into a more southerly/south-westerly flow regime. With strong mid-level winds still present, increased moisture will start working its way into the area, especially by Friday morning. This area of moisture is of particular interest, as it will dictate our rain chances heading into the overnight hours of Friday/ Saturday morning. Models are in good agreement that a weak shortwave and associated cold front will move through central MO 0-3z Saturday, but moisture may not be plentiful enough to deliver meaningful rain. Future forecasters will want to moniter the magnitude of moisture return ahead of the frontal passage when considering rain chances for Friday night and Saturday morning. 

WNW surface winds will continue to weaken as we move through Wednesday as a surface high moves over southern MO. Nothing in the way of clouds expected today, but Thursday will see mostly sunny conditions as the high moves east and our flow becomes southerly. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the upcoming shortwave will bring in blustery conditions Friday, with winds gusting to 20 kts across the area. Strong WAA/ dense solenoids will shoot temperatures up above average on Friday before the FROPA late Friday night.

-Shaw

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