Friday, May 7, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 

Friday Night:
Increasing clouds. Low: 48-52
 
 




Saturday: 
Cloudy with scattered showers. High: 60-64
 
 






Saturday Night: 
Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low: 58-62
 
 





Sunday: 
Cloudy. AM showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 62-66
 
 
 


Monday: 
Mostly cloudy. High: 52-56
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 
=====================================================================

Discussion:

Mothers Day AND Graduation weekend for some will be a slightly cool and damp period especially on Sunday morning. Clouds will be on the increase Friday night as a low pressure system develops to the southwest over the Southern Plains. Scattered showers Saturday could dampen graduation celebration plans as a warm front pushes northward across the state Saturday afternoon. The rumble of thunder overnight Saturday into Sunday is possible as the ensuing cold front associated with the low pressure system pushes through central Missouri by mid-morning on Mothers Day. Rain will clear out quickly behind the front and leave behind falling temperatures back into the upper 40's by Sunday night. Monday will be a calmer but unseasonably cooler day after the previous days frontal passage. Rainfall accumulations look to be around 0.5 inches for the weekend.

=====================================================================

 Forecasters: Travis, Bongard

Date Issued: 05/07/21 5:30 PM CST

Technical discussion:

The main focus of this forecast is an upper-level shortwave expected to bring showers and thunderstorms into the region this weekend. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used for this forecast as they both had good placements of the surface lows in Wyoming, Colorado, and Michigan. The NAM also looks to be shying away from its typical bullish tendencies regarding daytime high temperatures.

The strong upper-level low at 250 hPa over Ontario and Quebec retreats north in the coming days as the LW trough parked over the eastern CONUS begins to flatten out. This will result in a break down of the upper-level ridge over the western and central CONUS with flow eventually transitioning to a less amplified trough ridge pattern by the end of the forecast period. This breakdown of the ridge will allow an upper-level shortwave move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. GFS/NAM plots of 500-hPa vorticity show an increase in widespread circulation well out ahead of the approaching shortwave. The bulk of the upper-level energy associated with this disturbance will move through the region Saturday night and into Sunday morning. This is expected to be the main time frame of concern.

Model plots of 850-hPa winds have a prominent LLJ terminating in southwest Missouri for Friday night through Saturday afternoon. As the surface cyclone moves off of the Rockies, it will deepen and allow this LLJ at 850 hPa to strengthen with it. A synoptically driven LLJ coupled with the enhancing from the nocturnal nature of the LLJ will allow for strong (>50 kt) winds to infiltrate well into Missouri. This will help transport plenty of warmer, moister air for the bulk of the upper-level energy to make good use of. Plots of 850 and surface dewpoint temperatures back this up.

GFS and NAM soundings suggest sufficient saturation of the column to support brief passing showers Saturday afternoon associated with the above mentioned initial circulations. There are some discrepancies between the two models that are worth noting. The GFS favors a fully saturated boundary layer up to 700 hPa with a 200 hPa deep layer of dry air. The NAM is almost the opposite favoring a saturated upper atmosphere with a near-surface dry layer. As such, the lack of deep moisture with either model suggests brief passing showers throughout the day. The presence of roughly 300 to 400 J/kg of upper-level CAPE hints that rumbles of thunder, though unlikely, are not out of the question. 

Attention then turns to overnight Saturday into Sunday where the earlier mentioned bulk circulation associated with the upper-level shortwave will begin to move in. As mentioned above, the presence of a strong south-southwesterly LLJ will provide plenty of moisture for this system to feed off of. Both the GFS and NAM favor large elevated instability (1500-2000 J/kg)above the boundary layer overnight Saturday into the early morning hours on Sunday. Looking likely is an early morning MCS that will blow through the region ahead of the surface cold front around 12z Sunday. NAM soundings suggest a slightly slower frontal passage than those of the GFS with moderate, post-frontal, instability sticking around until ~15z where the GFS has none. DCAPE values >1000 J/kg and Corfidi storm motions of ~75 knots suggest the potential for strong winds associated with the initial line of thunderstorms. With all this in mind, the SPC's Day 2 Convective outlook places mid-Missouri in a marginal risk. As such, strong storms are possible, but severe weather, though possible, is not very likely. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat with the MCS with PWATs >1.5 inches and K indices around 30 to 35. The GEFS mean QPF for Columbia is 0.70 inches. Seeing as the MCS and cold front is quick to blow through, current thinking is rainfall totals slightly less than that at around 0.5 inches.

Upper-level flow turns zonal behind the exiting shortwave and associated surface front. Temperatures will fall well below average for May.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 

Friday:
Increasing clouds into the afternoon. High: 68-72
 
 



Friday Night:
Overcast with rain showers overnight. Low: 48-52
 
 



Saturday:
Overcast with light to moderate rain. High: 62-66
 
 



Saturday Night:
Showers and thunderstorms. Low: 50-54
 
 
 


Sunday:
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning. High: 60-64
 
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 
=====================================================================

Discussion:

From Friday, the atmosphere starts getting cloudy. Through the weekend, Missouri will experience a rainy forecast with seasonal temperatures due to a low pressure system impacting mid-Missouri. Light to moderate rain will be occurring throughout the weekend which will give students a chance to study for their exams. Rainfall accumulations around 1-1.2 inches through the weekend can be expected.

=====================================================================

 Forecasters: Ozdas, Bongard

Date Issued: 05/07/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion:

The GFS was used for today's forecast, because it locates the LPS and the temperature is well matched with the observations. GEFS plume were also used for the temperature.

At the 250-mb level, the jet streak is over Missouri, but will be shifting to the north west by subtropical jet streak coupling at the end of this forecast period. From Friday, the area is upstream of an upper-level trough. The height contours will be changing to zonal with the help of the  subtropical jet stream, therefore this will make the flow aloft under the influence of zonal by the end of this forecast period.

At the 500-mb level, because of subtropical jet stream shifting, the circulation from the southwest will be increasing the vorticity value from Friday into Saturday, until the circulation will leave to the northeast Sunday at 21Z.

At the 700-mb level, according  to the model suggestion the moisture content in mid-Missouri will start to increase from Friday 15Z. Not much of UVM has been suggested. However, this cloudy event will stay through Monday 06Z and will shift to the east.

At the 850-mb level, because the subtropical jet stream and the polar jetstream will come across Missouri, the temperature will be fluctuating a little bit. The other reason causing this fluctuation will be a LPS over northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri.

At the surface, the baroclinic environment will start increasing its strength due to the LPS over the middle of the country.

According to GFS soundings on Saturday 12Z, the UVM is high and supports the atmosphere moistening which will bring rain to the area with around 1-1.2 inches of potential rainfall. On Saturday, the UVM is not sufficient enough to support thunderstorms. However, on Sunday 12Z, convection is likely and could create thunderstorms in our area. From this time by Sunday 21Z, Missouri will have light to moderate rainfall.


Thursday, May 6, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 Thursday Night:
Clear. High: 46-46
 
 


Friday:
Increasing clouds into the afternoon. High: 68-72
 
 


Friday Night:
Overcast with rain showers into night. Low: 48-52
 
 


Saturday:
Overcasts with rain showers persisting all day. High: 62 - 66
 
 
 

Sunday:
Rain showers, possibility isolated thunderstorms in the morning. High: 60-64
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 
=====================================================================

Discussion:


As we move into the weekend and clouds start to build in the sky Friday afternoon with some small showers during the night. Around this time our winds shift from the north to the southwest, so expect slightly warmer temperatures than Thursday. Saturday experiences moderate rainfall throughout the day. Sunday  brings chances of thunderstorms in the morning with showers lasting all day, giving us a gloomy start to finals week.

=====================================================================

 Forecasters: Lamb, Cochran, Nixon 

Date Issued: 05/06/21 05:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:



    The GFS was used for today’s forecast based on its superior handling of the location and timing of the low pressure system moving in on Sunday. GFS soundings as well as GEFS & SREF plumes were also referenced for temperature and cloud cover. The LPS and the storms that will accompany it will be the main focus fore this forecast period.

    To start out the period, Missouri will be in a transition zone at the 250-mb level between a trough-ridge pattern with a deep upper-level ridge making its way into the area. This will remain until Sunday morning when a small shortwave moves over the state causing elevated upper-level divergence. Once this disturbance moves through, we move into zonal flow to finish out the forecast period.

    On the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, the circulations associated with the trough quickly push off to the east as the ridge moves in. Missouri does not experience more circulations until Sunday morning when the LPS reaches the area and brings more circulations to help fuel the active weather we will experience on Sunday. We again then return to zonal flow at this level to finish off the day.

    The 700-mb plot of heights and RH does not depict any moisture in the area until Friday afternoon. We then experience a large influx of moisture from the Gulf with the LPS also contributing some moisture once it reaches the area going into Sunday morning. This influx of moisture will bring some increasing cloud cover and possible showers into the area. The low pressure as well as the moisture pushes northeast and we remain dry for the rest of the period.

    The 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature have us in a moderate NW flow until a shift occurs on Saturday morning giving us significant SW flow contributing to rising temperatures. The LPS reaches the area at this level early Sunday morning which is when the heaviest rain and possible storms are expected to occur. Once the precipitation moves out of the area we return to a weak northerly flow with increasing pressure.

    At the surface, we are under the influence of a large high pressure system until Saturday when the pressure begins to drop as the LPS moves towards the state. The low pressure center reaches us early Sunday morning which lines up well with the timing of when the most active weather is expected.

    GFS soundings suggest a very dry atmosphere with a backing wind until late Friday evening when the lower levels begin to saturate with some rising motions suggested near the surface during this time. Some light rain will be likely in the area for a brief time period going into Saturday morning. By Sunday, we still see some saturation near the surface with a slight inversion causing a cap at around the 750-mb level. Significant upward motion is depicted near the surface at this time. Very strong CAPE values up to about 2100 J/Kg are being shown early Sunday morning with the K-index over 30 and TT-index staying around 55 which supports storm development during this time. If the air parcels push through the cap, expect some heavy rain at times and some thunderstorms lasting until about 11a.m. on Sunday. The absence of any strong wind shear during this time is reason to believe these storms will not become severe. The atmosphere once again dries out for the remainder of the forecast period by early Sunday afternoon.

    The next forecast period should focus on the incoming low pressure system moving towards the area from the NW United States.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 
 Thursday: Clouds clearing throughout the day. High: 58 - 62
 
 
 

Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 42 - 46
 
 
 

Friday:
Clear with clouds building in the late afternoon. High: 62 - 66
 
 
 

Friday Night:
Clouds building. Low: 48 - 52
 
 

Saturday:
Overcast with showers throughout the day. High: 56-60

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 
=====================================================================

Discussion:

Today will see clouds clearing as a high pressure system moves into the region for today and tomorrow. For Friday, clear skies with light winds out of the west. Friday night, clouds begin to build as southerly winds begin to dominate, bringing moisture and clouds. Rain could begin as early as 6 am, but won't be steady until about noon, when the atmosphere saturates completely. Storm totals are between 1 and 1.5 inches through Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible overnight Saturday, but will be brief and not severe.

=====================================================================

Technical discussion:

The 06z GFS was used for this forecast. The reasoning for its use is to maintain continuity with previous forecasts and because it has been closer to the actual conditions than the RAP and NAM. The focus of this discussion is the rain arriving Friday evening into Saturday morning.

For Thursday, high clouds will move through the area due to upper level divergence at 250mb and broad circulations at 500 mb. Throughout the day, the longwave pattern will move the base of the trough over Missouri, providing strong northwesterly flow for the region. Mid level moisture and vertical velocities also exit the area over the course of the day, giving way to clear skies for Thursday. As the surface low moves off to the east, northwesterly flow takes hold and Missouri will see some cold air advection (CAA).

On Friday, the upper level trough will move to the east and an upper level ridge begins to take hold.  At 250 mb, the divergence field remains relatively quiet and the flow is still northwesterly for most of the day Friday. The 500 mb vorticity field is also quiet over Missouri for Friday as the ridge pattern begins to take hold. Down at 700 and 850 mb, the relative humidity field starts to saturate over Missouri and the flow begins to shift from northwesterly to pure westerly. For the first part of Friday, a surface high pressure system will dominate, but will quickly exit to the south as the next system begins to affect the region.

Saturday begins the changeover and rain begins to enter the forecast. Starting between 09z and 12z, the divergence field at 250 mb begins to develop over Missouri. Upper level flow is still from the northwest, and will drive increased divergence into Missouri. At 500 mb, the vorticity field is quiet until about 18z when some small circulations enter Missouri from the west as the flow is westerly. At 700 mb, the relative humidity field stagnates and builds, with increasing vertical velocities throughout the day, until about 21z when a trough pulls the moisture out of the region. At 850 mb, a low level jet sets up out of the southwest, bringing warmer air and moisture to the region. At the surface, some slight warm air advection (WAA) takes place throughout Saturday. 

The surface low pressure system moves through Saturday night and passes Sunday morning through early afternoon. Soundings indicate clouds dissipating Thursday with Friday being clear until late afternoon.  Rain could start as early as 6 am on Saturday, but the soundings don't saturate until 12 pm. Scattered showers will likely start, but turn to more stratiform rain throughout the afternoon on Saturday. GEFS plumes indicate between 1 in and 1.5 in for storm totals.

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 46-50.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. AM rain possible. High: 60-64.


Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 40-44. 


Friday:  Partly cloudy. High: 62-66. 


Saturday: Overcast. Rain likely with thunderstorms also possible. High: 56-60.
================================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
 

Though there is a slight chance of rain overnight on Wednesday into Thursday, the end of our work week looks rather pleasant as temperatures will remain relatively cool and the skies will remain sunny.  Conditions, unfortunately will change on Saturday as we will receive rain through moist of the day with increasing chances for thunderstorms as we go through the evening.  The system moving into our area on Saturday could provide us with anywhere between 0.5 in and 1.5 in of rain.   

 

==================================================================
 
Forecaster: Gasch, Vanderpool
Issued: 5:00 PM CDT May 5, 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

A calm afternoon has been noted across mid-MO, with light winds and mild temperatures beneath mainly sunny skies. However, 18 UTC WPC sfc analysis reveals a low pressure system centered over southeastern SD, with a trailing cold front extending to its south. This front has generated scattered storms over central NE and far north central KS as of 20:30 UTC, with some of this convection pushing or exceeding severe limits. 

In the near term, the main focus for COU will be on small rain chances late tonight into Thursday as a cold front pushes into mid-MO. The 12 UTC GFS prognostic forecast at 250-mb indicates that a longwave trough will swing through the Midwest over the next 36 hours, with an embedded shortwave responsible for the aforementioned surface low and resultant convection. This embedded shortwave will propagate along the edge of this upper trough, thus causing the low and its associated cold front to track east and south throughout the overnight hours. Thus, partly to mostly cloudy skies are anticipated overnight with FROPA likely at COU around or just before sunrise Thursday. As the front moves through, there are indications that enough moisture may be present for some scattered showers. SREF means for MUCAPE also sit at ~470 j/kg Thursday morning, so a clap or two of thunder is not out of the question. Moisture will be limited, however, so only brief rainfall is expected if it occurs at all. 

Much of Thursday should remain dry and partly to mostly cloudy behind the cold front. The clouds and CAA will ensure that temperatures are significantly lower than Wednesday; highs will probably only reach the low 60s. Conditions will also probably be quite breezy, with NW winds gusting upwards of 25 mph.

Thursday night will see clearing skies and continued light CAA as the surface high passes just to the south of COU. These will create ideal conditions for a cool-down; lows should bottom out in the lower 40s. 

For Friday, current thinking is that return flow on the backside of the surface high will allow modest WAA to bring temperatures back up. Additionally, sunshine through at least the first half of the day will likely be enough to lift temperatures into the middle and upper 60s, if not the lower 70s. However, our next storm system will be gathering steam to the west, and this one looks well-organized and powerful. Out ahead of an approaching upper level longwave trough, a region of upper level moisture will create the chance for a shield of clouds to move east into mid-MO Friday afternoon and evening, which would reduce temperatures.

Friday night into Saturday, ridging will briefly develop at 500-mb and 250-mb. This ridging should allow for moisture advection and weak WAA throughout the column. Lee cyclogenesis is likely to begin Saturday morning in southeastern CO and southwestern KS, with the developing sfc cyclone giving rise to a warm/stationary front that will likely stretch somewhere into mid-MO. That will likely create chances of rain through much of the day Saturday. The GFS places this stationary/warm front just south of COU and keeps mid-MO in the cold sector, but extreme surface temperature spread in the GEFS members indicates that this is definitely not a decided solution. There will be the potential for both severe weather and widespread heavy rain with this system, as the GFS closes the surface low and creates a rather powerful cyclone over KS by Saturday evening. Where this front sets up will determine which (if any) hazard types COU receives. Right now, GEFS mean QPF through Saturday night at midnight are sitting at just shy of an inch, with rapidly rising means continuing beyond that. Future shifts will definitely want to pay close attention to this system.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

https://icons.iconarchive.com/icons/oxygen-icons.org/oxygen/128/Status-weather-clouds-icon.png

Wednesday -
Clouds build through the afternoon. High: 66-70



Wednesday
Night- Partly cloudy. Low: 46-50


Status weather showers scattered icon

Thursday
- Mostly cloudy with showers in the late morning. High: 60-64


Thursday
Night- Clouds clearing. Low: 40-44
 

Friday
- Mostly sunny. High: 62-66


 
================================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

It's a chilly start to the day with winds coming out of the north to kick off Wednesday. Sunny skies won't stick around too long as clouds will start building in through the afternoon as a series of high pressure systems that are expected to move through the area will kick start changes to our weather pattern. Rain chances will stay out of the area until late Thursday morning. You may need your rain jacket on Thursday, but a washout is not expected. Conditions will dry out for Friday as the sun makes a comeback. Temperatures will be holding fairly steady in the 60s through the end of the week.

==================================================================
 
Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 05 May 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was assembled using the 06Z GFS guidance along with GEFS plumes and related soundings. The GFS was chosen over other models as it most accurately placed the surface high pressure system over the southwestern corner of Missouri.

 

250-mb plots of wind show a small jet max pushing through mid-Missouri at 03Z Thursday, but that is the only jet max within the forecast area for the forecast period.

 

Vorticity guidance at the 500-mb level show low vorticity levels throughout Wednesday. By Thursday at 15Z, vorticity output looks to increase over the forecast area until 06Z Friday. After 06Z Friday, vorticity levels will remain low to conclude the week.

 

At the 700-mb level, RH guidance suggests little moisture in the area to kick off Wednesday. Moisture moves into the area at 03Z Thursday and will be over the forecast area until 21Z Thursday. Moisture will briefly clear out at this level for Thursday evening, but RH values appear to be on the rise again at 15Z Friday through the end of the forecast period. Clouds could be a possibility with this moisture, but soundings will be used to determine rain chances.

 

850-mb winds show no jet max moving over Missouri for the forecast period. RH at this level brings moisture into the area at 21Z Wednesday and keeps that moisture in the area through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures at this level show high pressure located over the Panhandle region of the US to start Wednesday. As this high pressure pushes eastward past Missouri, our winds will shift from northerly to become more westerly by 03Z Thursday. As a high pressure system over Texas pushes eastward Thursday, our winds will shift yet again to become northerly by 09Z Friday. This wind shift will be brief as that high pressure system continues to move east.

 

At the surface level, Missouri is under the influence of high pressure that is located in SEMO. This is bringing sunny skies to the area, but northerly winds on the back end of a cold front that moved through previously will cause a chilly start to the day. A high pressure system currently located over Nebraska will trek to the southeast, causing northerly winds through Friday at 06Z. As that high pressure slides to the south of Missouri, our winds will become more westerly for the entirety of Friday.

 

Soundings for Thursday show saturation near 15Z Thursday that could allow for some light showers to impact the area. Low CAPE values suggest that these will not be thunderstorms. Soundings for Thursday afternoon and Friday suggest minimal saturation ruling out rain chances.


Future forecasters should keep an eye on Saturday's system that looks to be bringing rain to the area.

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Tuesday Night
- Mostly clear. Low: 40-44



Wednesday
- Clouds increasing in the afternoon. High: 64-68



Wednesday Night
- Mostly cloudy. Low: 46-50


Thursday
- Partly sunny with scattered showers. Possible thunderstorms and gusty winds in the afternoon. High: 62-66
 

Friday
- Mostly sunny. High: 62-66


 
================================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

Tuesday's rain and cloudiness will move out by the evening, and clearer skies will return by nighttime. Wednesday will give your rain gear a break, as sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected. However, Mid-MO will still remain below average for the beginning of May. Opportunities for rain return Thursday morning, where spotty, on-and-off showers will stick around until late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms and strong winds are possible in the afternoon, but nothing severe is expected. Rain will move out of the region late Thursday evening and by Friday, nice sunny conditions return, making it the perfect day to go outside and celebrate the end of classes for the spring semester.

==================================================================
 
Forecaster: Clemons, Orr
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 04 May 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was assembled using the 12Z GFS, SREF and GEFS plumes, and both GFS and NAM soundings to check for consensus on rain events. The GFS was chosen due to its accurate initial conditions and placement of the cold front in southeast Missouri. 

 

250-mb plots of heights, winds, and divergence depict a fairly active wave pattern over the contiguous United States. Missouri is currently under an upper-level shortwave trough with large amounts of divergence present over SEMO. This trough moves out by 03Z Wednesday and Missouri remains under a fairly calm pattern in the base of a large trough until 06Z Thursday. Active weather may return around 21Z Thursday when Missouri falls under the influence of the left exit region of a large jet streak as the upper-level pattern transitions from a trough to a ridge. Friday sees a return to calm conditions due to the influence of the ridge.

 

Plots of heights and vorticity at 500-mb show a fairly active atmosphere. Abundant vorticity associated with Monday's cold front still lingers in SEMO, but moves out by 03Z Wednesday. After this, flow over Missouri stay fairly zonal until around 18Z Thursday when an approaching cold front brings circulations back into the forecast area. The cold front moves out by Friday at 06Z and calm conditions return.

 

At the 700-mb level, heights and humidity provide timing and strength of the incoming rain events. Tuesday's rain will move out of Mid-Missouri by 21Z, and calm clear conditions will remain until around 06Z Thursday. Abundant moisture moves back into the forecast area, though its strength varies and could lead to on and off rain showers throughout Thursday. The possibility for rain moves out by 18Z Thursday, leaving clear conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. 

 

850-mb heights, winds, and temperatures provide timing for the passage of Thursday's cold front and give an idea of what temperatures will be like. The cold front that passed through Mid-Missouri on Monday is still sitting over SEMO, but moves out by 03Z Wednesday. Missouri remains dominated by strong northerly winds, fueling the cooler temperatures seen Tuesday night. Winds slowly begin to shift westerly, but soon return to the northerly direction after the passage of a cold front around 21Z Thursday. By Friday winds shift to a southwesterly direction, allowing for warmer temperatures to return. 

 

At the surface level, Thursday's cold front is seen once again. A high pressure system moves over the forecast area soon after, bringing calm conditions for Friday. Solenoids approaching Missouri Friday evening could lead to warmer temperatures, and is something that future forecasters should watch for. 

 

Soundings from both the GFS and NAM were overlaid to assess the timing for rain and the possibilty for thunderstorms Thursday. Rain chances are spotty Thursday morning as there is little agreement on how saturated the atmosphere will be. The most agreement for rain and potential thunderstorms is around 18Z Thursday, which is associated with the passing cold front. The GFS suggests 281 J/kg of MUCAPE at this time, though other parameters remain unfavorable for storms. NAM soundings favor storm chances even less. While anything severe is very unlikely, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Future forecasters should watch to see how this system develops.