Friday, April 16, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field






Friday Night -
Cloudy skies. Rain beginning in the evening. Low: 44-48.

Saturday -
Cloudy. Rain tapering off into the afternoon. High: 52-56.


Saturday Night-
Cloudy. Low: 38-42. 
 

Sunday -
Cloudy. Light rain possible during the day. High: 52-56.


Monday-
Partly cloudy. High: 60-64.

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Discussion: 

A dreary weekend is in store for mid-Missouri with two shots of rain possible. A low-pressure system will slide to the south of the region Friday night bringing with it cloudy skies and rain beginning around 7pm. Lingering drizzle will struggle to taper off into Saturday. Cloudy skies and light rain/drizzle will continue into Saturday afternoon. Clouds stick around Saturday night and into Sunday where another shot at light rain from late morning into early afternoon is possible with a weaker system moving in from the northwest. Temperatures will not move much with highs staying close to the mid 50s range and lows hovering around the low 40s. Columbia will finally see partially clearing skies on Monday with temperatures climbing back into the comfortable 60s.

 

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Forecaster: Bongard, Travis
Issued: 5:00 PM CDT 16 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


The 12Z run of the GFS was utilized for this forecast period as it is more accurately placing the encroaching system to the west better than its NAM counterpart. GFS is also tracking temperatures better with a colder trend for the forecast period. The largest obstacle of this period will be timing and accumulation of rainfall Friday night through Saturday.

Persistent zonal flow aloft will reside over the Midwest through Monday afternoon. A jet streak draped from the Panhandles across SEC country to the Carolinas Friday afternoon will gradually erode to the east. Trough just to the northwest over the Central and Northern Plains will remain there through the period as well.

500-mb analysis reveals plenty of vorticity over the region Friday afternoon that will remain in place through Saturday and most of Sunday as the axis of a shortwave trough pushes across the state by 21Z Sunday.    

The NAM40 was selected for this forecasting shift because of it's accurate placement of the approaching low pressure system. Additionally, both SREF and GEFS plumes were reviewed for analyzing total QPF .

    At the 250-mb plot, the slight ridge that has developed over northern Missouri will begin to flatten out by 12Z Friday leaving behind zonal flow for the majority of the forecast period. A positively tilted trough will begin to develop to the west which will impact our weather later on throughout the week.

    At 500-mb, the upper-level ridge is over Missouri, the LPS is approaching from the west. This system will be weakening over the weekend, though the circulation will be still supporting the system not to dissipate entirely. The NAM40 suggests that there will be another LPS developing over North Dakota by Sunday 12Z and will make the atmosphere cloudy over mid-Missouri.

    At 700-mb level, the low-level moisture content will be transported from the Gulf of Mexico Friday morning wetting the atmosphere. Isotropic analysis highlights high values of relative humidity along with the forcing necessary to bring the region precipitation over the weekend.

    The 850-mb chart suggests that Missouri will be under the influence of polar air masses during the weekend contributing to temperature decrease. Winds will transition from southerly direction on Friday to the northwest on Saturday morning after frontal passage.

    At the surface, a weak baroclinic atmosphere will be seen in this forecast period. Starting from Friday 21Z, stratiform precipitation is likely through Sunday morning. Sunday morning NAM soundings suggests fog by 17Z. 
 
    The next forecast period should take note of positively tilted trough and the effects it can have on our future weather.


    


 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Friday -
Overcast with rain beginning around 6pm. High: 54 - 58.
 


Friday Night -
Rain throughout the night. Low: 42 - 46.



Saturday -
Showers into the evening. High: 52-56. 
 
 

Saturday Night -
Most cloudy and cool conditions. Low: 40-44



Sunday-
Partly cloudy with clearing clouds throughout the day. High: 56-60.

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Discussion: 

Outdoor plans may have to be put on hold this weekend as the forecast calls for persistence rain showers from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Once all is said and done, rainfall accumulation is expected to total around 0.5 inches. High temperatures will remain in the mid 50's for this forecasting period. Sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures will return Sunday as the low pressure system pushes northeast and out of mid-Missouri.

 

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Forecaster: Bongard, Hefner, Ozdas
Issued: 10:00 AM CDT 16 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


    The NAM40 was selected for this forecasting shift because of it's accurate placement of the approaching low pressure system. Additionally, both SREF and GEFS plumes were reviewed for analyzing total QPF .

    At the 250-mb plot, the slight ridge that has developed over northern Missouri will begin to flatten out by 12Z Friday leaving behind zonal flow for the majority of the forecast period. A positively tilted trough will begin to develop to the west which will impact our weather later on throughout the week.

    At 500-mb, the upper-level ridge is over Missouri, the LPS is approaching from the west. This system will be weakening over the weekend, though the circulation will be still supporting the system not to dissipate entirely. The NAM40 suggests that there will be another LPS developing over North Dakota by Sunday 12Z and will make the atmosphere cloudy over mid-Missouri.

    At 700-mb level, the low-level moisture content will be transported from the Gulf of Mexico Friday morning wetting the atmosphere. Isotropic analysis highlights high values of relative humidity along with the forcing necessary to bring the region precipitation over the weekend.

    The 850-mb chart suggests that Missouri will be under the influence of polar air masses during the weekend contributing to temperature decrease. Winds will transition from southerly direction on Friday to the northwest on Saturday morning after frontal passage.

    At the surface, a weak baroclinic atmosphere will be seen in this forecast period. Starting from Friday 21Z, stratiform precipitation is likely through Sunday morning. Sunday morning NAM soundings suggests fog by 17Z. 
 
    The next forecast period should take note of positively tilted trough and the effects it can have on our future weather.


    


Thursday, April 15, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Thursday night -
Increasing clouds. Low: 38 - 42.



Friday -
Overcast with rain beginning around 4pm. High: 54 - 58.
 
 

Friday night - Rain throughout the night. Low: 42 - 46.



Saturday - Showers into the evening. High: 50-54. 


Sunday-
Partly cloudy becoming sunny. High: 54-58

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Discussion: 

Tonight will remain relatively calm, with temperatures remaining in the lower 40's. Cloud cover will increase throughout the evening into Friday, as an influx of moisture from the Great Plains region approaches Central Missouri. Moving into the weekend, expect rain showers persisting from Friday afternoon until Saturday evening. Temperatures will drop slightly as a cold front passes Friday evening. Total rain accumulations will be around 0.5 - 1.0 inches. However, Sunday should be pleasant and sunny with temperatures slightly rising as the precipitation moves northeast and out of the area.

 

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Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Nixon
Issued: 5:00 PM CDT 15 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):



    For this forecast period, the NAM was mainly used due to its better handling of the low pressure system and accuracy with observed winds and temperatures. The focus of this forecast is the incoming low pressure system bringing precipitation over the weekend. 


    At the 250mb plot of heights, wind, and divergence, Columbia is under the influence of a shortwave ridge for the majority of Thursday going into Friday which will help our current pleasant weather stick around. On Friday morning, the overhead jet begins to push slightly south, leaving Columbia in the left exit region and therefore bringing much higher levels of divergence aloft, which will help fuel the precipitation we will see on Friday. 


    At the 500mb plot of heights and vorticity, the shortwave ridge is still visible in our area until Friday afternoon when a low pressure system begins to move into Columbia. The high levels of vorticity associated with the LPS will also be present in our area early Friday afternoon; the ideal time for widespread showers to begin. The LPS and the associated circulations will not move out of the area until  Saturday evening, when we will briefly return to zonal flow with a positively tilted shortwave trough moving in behind it. 


    Moving down to the 700mb plot of heights and RH, Columbia experiences increasing moisture by the LPS, also mixed with moisture transport from the Gulf into Friday afternoon. Expect to see widespread rain and heavy cloud cover until Saturday evening as the heavy moisture sticks around. The atmosphere will start to dry out by Saturday night before returning back to mostly zonal flow on Sunday.


    At the 850mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature, Missouri receives a weak to moderate northerly flow of winds on Thursday, helping to keep the chilly temperatures. The winds then shift southwesterly with the passage of the LPS on Friday, returning northerly on Saturday morning and will remain this way for the remainder of the forecast period. 


    On the MSLP and 1000-500mb thickness plot, the LPS is not as defined as in the upper levels. However, Friday evening a cold front associated with the system is suggested by the pressure contours helping to fuel the expected precipitation. By Saturday evening, the LPS moves northeast out of our area. The following solenoids suggest some weak CAA for the remainder of the forecast period. 


    Finally, according to soundings produced from the NAM, there is little saturation in the atmosphere until late Thursday night when we will see increasing cloud cover at the 850-mb level. The atmosphere continues to become saturated as we move into Friday. A small dry layer is depicted between the 850-700mb levels persists 21Z, which may help prohibit any heavy rainfall. By late Friday night, the atmosphere is almost completely saturated to about the 500mb level with some UVM being shown throughout almost all levels of the atmosphere. The atmosphere will again dry out by early Sunday morning to leave us with pleasant weather to end the forecast period. 


    The focus for the next forecast should be the positively tilted shortwave trough and its effects it will bring into the area.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Thursday - Growing clouds throughout the day. High: 56 - 60



Thursday night -
Overcast. Low: 38 - 42.



Friday -
Rain beginning in the afternoon. High: 52 - 56.
 
 

Friday night - Rain. Low: 42 - 46.



Saturday - Rain likely, ending in the evening. High: 48-52.

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Discussion: 

We have another rainy end of the week in store for us in Central Missouri.  While Thursday will remain dry, there will be increasing coverage of clouds throughout the day today in advance of a low pressure system that will be supplying the area with rain.  Rain totalling up to about 0.5 inches can be expected through Saturday.  It is worth mentioning that an isolated rumble of thunder or two could happen, but widespread storms are unlikely. 

 

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Forecaster: Gasch
Issued: 10:45 AM CDT 15 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
 
The 06Z GFS run was used for the bulk of this forecast due to its better handling of both the location and the intensity
of the low pressure system that is currently to the west of our area.  

The 250-mb level clearly shows the jet which is situated directly to our south. The jest stream shifting to our south is
responsible for the cold front that passed through our area earlier this week. Throughout the day on Thursday, the
general flow is more or less directly out of the west. The main feature to look for on Thursday is a slight ridge that will
build throughout the day. Once that ridge flattens out on Friday, much higher levels of divergence will be found 
over Missouri. Also, the winds will shift to a more south-westerly direction which should lead to warmer temperatures
later in the weekend. 

Two low pressure systems can be seen swirling across the country at the 500-mb level. The fist low is to our northeast
over the Great Lakes region. The second low, currently sitting over the Inter-mountain West, will be impacting our
weather for the remainder of the week. While there is not much vorticity over our area today, that will begin to change
as the low to our west gets closer to our area. Vorticity will begin to increase on Thursday evening. Winds will start
to veer in advance of the low at the 500-mb level which should lead to slightly warmer winds if not warmer temperatures
as well. Vorticity levels will remain high throughout Friday and Saturday.
 
As we begin the day on Thursday, our mid-levels are fairly dry. The drying trend at the 700-mb level will continue 
throughout Thursday. We will begin to receive moisture at this level in advance of the expected low pressure system.
Once the air becomes saturated, it will stay at very moist levels until the low pressure has passed through our area.
The level will begin to dry out again Saturday afternoon. Levels of omega will also increase. These omega values will
correspond with the increase in moisture. While there is some variability in the models, the GFS has our peak values of
omega reaching our area around 00Z Saturday or 7 PM Friday evening. While the omega values will then begin to taper
off, vertical motion will remain in the area through Saturday morning. 

The 850-mb level tells a similar story as the 700-mb level. While we are currently dry at the 850-mb level, moisture 
should be expected to move into the area during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Once the low, and its accompanying
moisture, reach central Missouri, this level will remain saturated throughout the duration of the forecast period.
Though the bulk of the omega associated with this low pressure system will be mostly to our south *near the Missouri-Arkansas
border), we can still expect our highest levels of vertical velocity during the evening on Friday. The vertical velocity and
moisture at both the 700- and 850-mb levels will contribute to cloud cover in advance of the low.

At the surface, the fron that passed through yesterday is now ell to the southeast of Missouri. The current dry slot 
located over Missouri can be clearly seen on the visible spectrum on the GOES-16 satellite.

The end of the week and into the weekend will, once again, be rainy and dreary. The low pressure system that will be moving
through the area in the next couple of days apprears to have a negative stacking/tilting to it. This negative tilt
should lead to a strengthening of the system. The streghtening can be seen on the heightmas at various levels until the low
is reabosorbed by the main 500-mb level flow. Rain can be expected to begin in the early afternoon on Friday, and will likely
continue though late Saturday evening. While there is some CAPE in the area on Friday, there is not enough for any significant
amount of convenction. Therefore, while it is not expected, don't be surprised to hear any isolated rumbles of thunder.
The area should expect between 0.1" and 0.5" of rain throughout Friday and Saturday.

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Wednesday Night - Partly to mostly clear. Low: 34-38. 



Thursday - Increasing clouds. High: 56-60. 



Thursday night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 38-42. 
 
 

Friday - Rain possible by the afternoon. High: 54-58. 



Saturday - Rain likely, ending in the evening. High: 48-52.

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Discussion: 

We have another rainy end of the week in store for us in Central Missouri.  Central Missouri is currently under a frost advisory through 8 AM Thursday morning.  Thursday should remain a fairly pleasant day.  However, clouds will begin to grow in the afternoon ahead of a low pressure system.  As a result, rain should be expected beginning Friday afternoon and should remain in our area until Saturday evening.  While not a lot of rain can be expected, be prepared for anywhere from 0.1 - 0.5”.

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Forecaster: Gasch, Vanderpool
Issued: 5:00 PM CDT 14 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

Current WPC sfc analysis shows a relatively quiet pattern in mid-MO. A weak cold front stretched from roughly Springfield, MO to Paducah, KY to Detroit, MI. This was attached to a disorganized low centered in the upper Great Lakes region. Visible satellite indicated mainly clear conditions over much of Missouri, with high clouds beginning to stream off of a complex of showers and thunderstorms in Oklahoma. 

In the near term, the upper-level perturbation responsible for sparking off the rain in Oklahoma will translate east. However, short-range hi-res models indicate that this will have little to no affect on our sensible weather as it does so. The aforementioned high clouds will likely continue to push their way into mid-MO, which may result in some increased cloudiness by late this evening or into the overnight hours. Nevertheless, our main focus of tonight will be on cooling temperatures and the potential for frost. Right now, the HRRR and the 12 UTC HREF look to keep the majority of clouds - even high clouds - mainly south of COU. Given mainly clear skies and modest CAA at the surface, as well as the presence of an already cool and dry airmass, lows overnight should tank into the middle 30s. Light surface winds on the order of just 4-8 kt and fairly high relative humidity will make for a patchy frost potential early Thursday morning. As a result, a frost advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday.

For Thursday itself, look for a partly to mostly sunny start to translate into increasing afternoon cloud cover. A positively-tilted upper-level trough will start to dig its way into the eastern Rockies, favoring modest cyclogenesis on the lee side of the mountain range. However, the GFS and extended HRRR do not advertise this becoming a closed surface low; rather, it is likely to remain a rather disorganized system as it begins to affect mid-MO. The GFS/GEFS indicate fairly strong moisture advection in the mid levels of the atmosphere for Thursday night into Friday; however, the mean flow between 850-mb and 500-mb will be southwesterly. This likely indicates that there will be no significant plume of Gulf moisture for this system to work with, so it will be relying primarily on what spreads in from the Pacific. As a consequence, clouds will increase Thursday afternoon and become widespread Thursday night into Friday. 

The main window of precipitation currently looks to exist from Friday evening through Saturday evening, though rain is likely to begin as early as early to mid afternoon on Friday. One interesting thing to note is that, according to the 18 UTC NAM, a layer of dry air may exist between 850-mb and 700-mb, thanks to strong easterly flow in that layer. The GFS is not as sold on this. If this dry layer does exist, it would mean a later start to surface precipitation, as the atmosphere aloft would need to saturate before rain starts to reach ground level. Regardless, it appears that rain will be falling by 00z Saturday.

Rain is likely to continue overnight Friday into Saturday, courtesy of ample moisture and decent lift aloft. The disorganized system, however, will begin to lose its punch by Saturday afternoon. This will result in a rapid loss of lift and thus a decrease in the intensity and scope of precipitation. The SREF means are sitting at ~0.6 inches of QPF throughout the duration of the event; the GEFS means are slightly below 0.5". Given the disorganized nature of the system and the potential for dry air intrusion in the mid-levels of the atmosphere on Friday, probability suggests that true QPF will probably fall between 0.1 and 0.5 inches, with most receiving 0.25-0.5".

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Wednesday -
 Mostly sunny. High: 58-62



Wednesday Night -
Partly cloudy. Potential frost. Low: 34-38



Thursday -
Mostly sunny. High: 56-60



Thursday Night-
Partly cloudy. Low 38-42


Friday -
Cloudy. Rain possible in the early evening. High: 54-58



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Discussion: 

Conditions will remain on the cooler side through the end of this week courtesy of a cold front that has moved through. Rain chances will stay out of the forecast until late Friday when a low pressure system approaches the area. With plenty of sunshine until then, it will be a perfect stretch to get outside before that rain hits. Something to note, however, if you planted already, you may want to bring in those sensitive plants tonight as we're watching for the potential for overnight frost.

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Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 14 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 06Z GFS was used to create this forecast. Both the NAM and the GFS were pretty similar in where they had low pressure systems placed, but the GFS handled the cold frontal passage a little better. The main focus for today's forecast will be the potential for frost overnight tonight. 


Winds at the 250-mb level show westerly zonal flow with a jet max to our east. A shortwave ridge will enter the area at 00Z Friday, producing a slight wind shift. It's not expected that this wind shift will greatly impact conditions at the surface. 


The 500-mb level shows zonal flow very similar to what was seen at the 250-mb level. The upper atmosphere is shown to be lacking vorticity at this level until 09Z Friday morning. This vorticity will arrive ahead of our next rain chances. 


700-mb plots show that a low pressure system located over Wisconsin helps to nudge moisture to our south until Friday at 12Z. This lack of moisture will help keep skies clear until early Friday. 


At the 850-mb level, northerly winds dominate during the forecast period courtesy of a cold front that moved through earlier this morning. Because of these winds, temperatures will be much cooler throughout the day today and into tonight. A lack of moisture near the surface and aloft will ultimately keep skies clear through the end of the week. The combination of radiative cooling along with northerly winds tonight will drop temperatures to a level conducive with frost development. 


At the surface level, winds will stay calm through the end of the week. Ahead of the next weather maker, winds can be expected to shift from northwesterly at the surface to northeasterly by 18Z Friday. 


GFS soundings for the forecast period were consulted to determine the likelihood of light rain showers during the day Friday ahead of this next system. These soundings suggested upper level saturation, but the presence of a low level dry layer indicates that it will be difficult for moisture to make it to the surface. The main rain event will begin late Friday. 


Future forecasters should watch the next weather maker as it approaches the area.

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Tuesday Night -
 Mostly cloudy. Low: 40-44



Wednesday -
Mostly sunny. High: 58-62



Wednesday Night -
 Mostly clear. Breezy. Low: 34-38



Thursday - 
Mostly sunny. High: 54-58



Friday -
Cloudy. Rain possible in the early evening. High: 54-58



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Discussion: 

We will be seeing fairly consistent temperatures throughout the rest of this week, so make sure to get outside and enjoy the nice weather these next couple of days. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid-50s to lower 60s, very comfortable and appropriate conditions for this time of year. Wednesday night is expected to be breezy and chilly with temperatures in the mid 30s, so hold onto your hats and bring a warm jacket with you if you plan on heading out in the evening. Skies are expected to remain mostly sunny until Friday, when chances for rain will return in the early evening and cloudy skies will persist throughout the day.

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Forecaster: Orr, Vochatzer
Issued: 05:00 PM CST 13 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


This forecast was assembled using the 06Z run of the GFS, GEFS and SREF plumes, and GFS soundings. The GFS was chosen due to its accuracy in initial conditions of winds and temperatures. The persistence forecasting method was also used in this forecast due to zonal flow and stable atmospheric conditions being the main driving force behind this week's weather. 

 

Plots of 250-mb heights, winds, and divergence depict Missouri's weather being governed by zonal flow. Mid-Missouri is under a jet steak from around 18Z on Tuesday to 06Z Thursday. Small amounts of divergence move in and out of the forecast area during this time as well, helping facilitate some of the cloudiness seen over the next several days. Starting on 12Z Friday, an upper level ridge moves over Missouri, bringing with it larger amounts of divergence. 

 

At the 500-mb level, plots of heights and vorticity continue to support the trend of calm weather. Small circulations move through Missouri, adding more support for cloud formation throughout the week. The overall zonal pattern prevents Mid-Missouri from seeing any major circulations until about 15Z Friday. At this time, the ridge pattern brings higher amounts of vorticity into Missouri. 


At 700-mb, relative humidity and height plots show variable amounts of moisture over Missouri throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday and Thursday, cloud cover will be variable due to the atmosphere's variable saturation. A dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere prevents any precip from falling, but partly cloudy skies remain. A more widespread area of moisture enters the region Friday around 12Z. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, and by late evening rain chances will being to increase as well.


850-mb plots of heights, winds, and temperatures show the reason as to why Missouri will be seeing cooler, but more seasonable temperatures. Until Friday, winds will remain in a north northwesterly direction, bringing cooler air into the region. However, by 09Z Friday, winds begin shifting to a southerly direction due to the influence of an incoming weak low pressure system. Future forecasters should watch for this shift and its potential impact on temperatures and rainfall.


At the surface level, plots of MSLP, thickness, and winds provide more support for Missouri's seasonable temperatures. Winds remain out of a northwesterly direction. Gusts of up to 20 kts may be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.