Friday, February 3, 2023

  

 

 



Friday Night: 
Mostly clear. Low: 23

 




Saturday: 
 Mostly Cloudy, Gusty. High: 53

 




Saturday Night
: 
Partly Cloudy.Low: 36
 

 
 
 

Sunday
Partly Cloudy. High: 55
 
 

 

Sunday Night: 
Increasing Clouds. Low: 33

 



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Discussion:




Clouds and gusty winds look to move in on Saturday, bringing seasonally warm temperatures, with periods of clouds and sun between Saturday night and Sunday night. Highs in the low to mid 50's and lows right around freezing.


-Thomas
 =================================================================

Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/3/23 4:20PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Visible satellite observations show a clear sky over the entire CWA. GFS is the model used in this forecast due to its superior temperature accuracy along with its use as a spectral model for a relatively stable atmosphere. Due to stable atmospheric conditions, the chief concern of this forecast is high winds Saturday through Sunday.


At 300mb, the CWA is under the influence of a ridge, bringing stable conditions until 21Z Saturday. A shortwave trough then moves in Sunday 9Z-12Z followed by a jet streak that will last through the end of the forecast period. Winds at all upper levels consist of a zonal, westerly regime throughout the forecast period.


A large vort max will move over the CWA Saturday 00Z-03Z in conjunction with a shortwave approaching from the west. Winds are out of the northwest until the shortwave passes, changing them to a more westerly component.


The 700mb layer is dry throughout the forecast period, reducing any chance for active weather in conjunction with the previously mentioned short wave. The shortwave passes over the CWA Sunday 00Z-06Z.


A large wave of WAA will pass over the CWA from Friday 21Z to Saturday 15Z with a maximum of 24 degrees Celsius per hour, which should increase temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. This is due to a change in wind flow to a more southwesterly component brought on by a high pressure system situated over southern Arkansas. Low-level winds reach 50 knots out of the west on Sunday 03Z, which may lead to gusty winds at the surface. Solenoids in conjunction with southerly winds at the surface further indicate WAA over the CWA Friday 21Z to Saturday 15Z. Winds reach 10-15 knots at the surface through all of Saturday and Sunday with a westerly shift on Sunday 09Z.

 

-Sausen



 

 

 

Friday:
Mostly sunny. High: 30

 


Friday Night: 
Mostly Clear. Low: 25

 


Saturday
:
Increasing Clouds. High: 51
 
 
 
 Saturday Night
:
Mostly Cloudy. Low: 36
 
 
 
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High: 50
 



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Discussion:




Winds shifted overnight, bringing us cold air from the north, dropping the temperature today; we expect to reach only 30 degrees! But, don’t worry, spring-like temperatures will move in for the weekend as temperatures rise into the 50s on Saturday and Sunday. This weekend should be a great opportunity to get outside, full of sun and few clouds. Just in case you forgot that it’s still winter, the overnight lows will be chilly, in the mid 20s tonight and mid 30s Saturday night. Enjoy the weekend tigers!


-Sallot
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Forecasters: Allen, Sallot, McGuire

Date Issued: 2/3/23 10:58 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend are temperature shifts that are above average for this time of year. The NAM and GFS were both used for this forecast and were in agreement with each other and were both very close to what the RAP was showing as well.

As the tail end of a positively tilted trough exits our region, our flow becomes more zonal throughout the weekend. This corresponds with the jet stream that is currently overhead of the northern half of MO and should remain so until about Friday 18Z. This is followed by a ridge of high-pressure Saturday morning at about 12Z. After this ridge the jet stream transitions into more of a zonal flow. From Sunday 15Z until the end of this forecast period on Monday 00Z there will be a jet streak that makes its way over MO. 

While a short wave moves into MO Saturday 21Z at 500mb, at the same time the GFS and the NAM both indicate there will be some vorticity at Saturday 21Z until Sunday 09Z. However, even though there is vorticity and lift during this time there is hardly any moisture throughout the weekend so there will not be any precipitation.

At 700mb at about Friday 18Z when we see the jet stream leave MO, we will also see CAA leave with it as a wall of WAA moves in from the west throughout MO. This will help bring up our temperatures on Saturday afternoon to above average for winter. At about Sunday 06Z we will transition again to CAA which will bring our temperature down a bit during the morning, however it quickly switches back to WAA which will help warm us up to the 50’s again Sunday afternoon. 

Both the GFS and the NAM show that there will be little moisture at 850mb throughout the whole weekend which means there is little chance of seeing any  precipitation. The low-level jet could possibly bring in some moisture as it has a southern flow with winds peaking on Sunday 03Z at about 50 kt. This will help warm us up this weekend as well.

Friday afternoon we see a wind shift at the surface from the north to the south which corresponds with the rise in temperatures we will see this weekend.

 

-Allen




Thursday, February 2, 2023

 

 

 




Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 17



 

Friday:
Mostly sunny. High: 30

 



Friday Night: 
Clear. Low: 25

 

 

Saturday
:
Sunny. High: 51
 
 
 
 

Saturday Night
:
Clear. Low: 36


 

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Discussion:

Happy Groundhog's Day! A cold front will be cooling our temperatures for tomorrow, but no need to fear, high pressure is near. Temperatures will warm up, reaching fifty one degrees by Saturday.

-Easter

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Forecasters: Macko, Easter, and Labit

Date Issued: 2/2/2023 5:30 PM CST

Technical Discussion:
    GFS20 and the NAM12 were used in the making of this forecast. Both models handled the timing and the placement of frontal systems and shortwaves relatively similarly. Besides the difference in the strength of the shortwave and frontal system by the NAM12, both models are in agreement.The main focus of the forecast will be on the cold front that is cooling off our temperatures tonight and the shift in the wind due to high pressure moving in that will warm us up into the fifties for a high on Saturday.

    A cold front is currently making its way across Missouri, exiting out of the region by this afternoon/evening. Despite there being decent amounts of vorticity in the area there is no moisture present in any of the levels to support any kind of cloud cover or precipitation. With the passage of the cold front temperatures will drop into the upper teens tonight but will warm back up into the thirties by Friday. Temperatures will keep warming as high pressure moves in. The wind will shift from north to south as high pressure moves in. The wind out of the south will keep temperatures warm reaching fifty one by Saturday. 

    By 00Z on Friday we will have another shortwave trough moving into Columbia with a similar set up. Despite the NAM and the GFS' disagreement with the strength of the shortwave, both models are in agreement of the timing and placement of the shortwave. Similar to tonight's cold front, moisture is not present in the region at any levels during this period leaving the area dry. The shortwave quickly exits the region by 03Z. The area remains quiet and clear until Sunday at 00Z. 

    The next forecasting shift may want to take note of another cold front that works its way into the region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

-Easter




 

 



Thursday:
Sunny. High: 44



 
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 17

 


Friday: 
Sunny. High: 32

 

 
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 25
 
 
 


 Saturday
:
Partly Cloudy. High: 51


 

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Discussion:

Happy Groundhog's Day! Unfortunate news for any fans of warmer weather; Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today and is predicting 6 more weeks of winter. While high temperature won't break freezing on Friday, thankfully here in Missouri, we can expect clear skies and warmer than average temperature arriving for the weekend.

-Hefner

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Forecasters: Macko, Sampson, and Hefner

Date Issued: 2/2/2023 10:30 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

The 12Z run of the GFS20 was used for the construction of this forecast in part to maintain consistency with prior forecasting shifts. Additionally, the GFS20 proved to have a better handling of upper-level moisture, which was supported by model agreement with the ECMWF. The main focus for our forecast period will be the frontal passage Thursday evening to examine shifting wind and variable temperatures.

At the 250-mb level, the GFS20 resolves a trough located over the Southern Great Plains. This trough will travel east-northeast, moving into our region Friday 00-03Z, introducing a cold front. Due to lack of moisture and low amount of negative Omega, no precipitation nor increase in cloud cover is expected to occur over mid-Missouri. With the passage, winds will shift from southwesterly to northerly and will aid in advecting cooler air into the area for Thursday evening, dropping temperature slightly.

By Friday 21Z, the shortwave will fully exit our region with a 500-mb ridge to traversing eastward to replace the aforementioned trough. As such, pleasant weather is expected on Saturday with winds turning out of the south, bringing warmer than average temperatures to Columbia.


-Hefner

Wednesday, February 1, 2023


 
 
 
 
 
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low:24
 



Thursday:
Sunny. High: 44



 
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 17

 


Friday: 
Sunny. High: 32

 


Friday Night
:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 25

 

 

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Discussion:

Expect variable temperatures in the coming days with a warmup on Thursday quickly getting cut short by a cold spell for Friday. You'll need your winter coat for Friday, but a warm up is in store for the weekend ahead.

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Cook, and Travis

Date Issued: 2/1/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast, as it outperformed other models in its forecasting of today's high temperature. The problem of the day for this forecast period is the variable temperatures for the rest of the week caused by the passage of a cold front late Thursday night. While temperatures for the area warm into the mid 40s for Thursday, the front briefly brings mid-Missouri back into a cold spell for Friday.

Before the FROPA, mid-Missouri is in a primarily zonal pattern, indicating fair weather for Thursday. At 500MB, narrow circulation spanning the CONUS from the Desert Southwest to the Ohio River Valley was resolved over much of the Midwest and passes through the forecast area for most of the day on Wednesday and dissipates by Thursday morning. It is believed to be circulation associated with the surface boundary; however, no effects are anticipated at the surface.

The aforementioned cold front extends off of a low-pressure system located over the northeastern part of the United States. This is an interesting case because the low-pressure system will be in Maine by the time its cold front starts to affect the forecast area. The cooler air is evident in the tightly packed 1000-500-MB thickness contours around 03Z on Friday. The southwesterly winds observed on Wednesday noticeably shift to a northern component by Friday, coinciding with the FROPA and thickness contours. Behind it, an upper-level trough envelops the upper-Midwest in much cooler, arctic air for Friday.

As Saturday begins, solenoids were resolved at the surface, indicating that WAA will be a main factor in the warmup for the weekend. A shift to southerly winds intensifies this, leading to high temperatures in the 50s.

 -Chirpich

 


 
 
 
 





Wednesday:
Mostly Sunny. High: 35
 
 
 



Wednesday Night:
Mostly Clear. Low: 22





Thursday:
Sunny. High: 46


 
 



Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 15

 
 




Friday
:
Sunny. High: 32

 

 

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Discussion:


Our temperatures continue to rise for the next two days as warm air is brought in from the south. Expect a high temperature today in the mid 30s with tomorrow’s high reaching the mid 40s. Unfortunately a low pressure system to our northeast sweeps a cold front into our area, making Friday colder with the high only reaching 32F. But fear not! The cold front isn’t bringing with it any rain or snow, and the cold temperatures only stick around for one day.


Cochran

 =================================================================

Forecasters: Clark, Cochran

Date Issued: 2/1/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:


While both the GFS and NAM were used to construct the forecast due to their agreement on upper-level structure, the timing of the passage of the upper-level trough, and the distribution of moisture in the mid-levels, I used the GFS to forecast surface temperatures as well as the timing of the frontal passage due to it handling the temperatures from the past 12 hours better than the NAM. The NBM was also used for forecasting temperatures and cloud cover.

Wednesday will be cold with clouds in the upper levels, supported by 300 mb saturation and divergence as a jet streak moves off to the east. Despite a large area of high vorticity draped across MO from Kansas City, MO, to Quincy, IL, the 500 mb level, as well as the 700 mb and 850 mb levels below it, are unsaturated, with RH values consistently below 70%. Surface temperatures will remain cold into the night while clouds dissipate before 12z Thursday.

A trough, currently located over the AZ-Mexico border, will move across MO Thursday, bringing with it colder temperatures and no precipitation. Despite the presence of 500 mb vorticity, due to a lack of 700 and 850 mb moisture and lift we are unlikely to get much more than upper-level clouds from the passage of this trough. The passage of this trough is associated with a broad area of 850 mb and surface-based cold air advection, further hindering the formation of low and mid-level clouds.

Thursday will be much warmer than Wednesday, with a clear sky and southerly winds through the day until 18z, when surface winds will shift to the west ahead of a cold front. This front will shift our surface winds to the north around 21z Thursday before those winds intensify to 10-15 kts, which will drop our temperatures to the mid-teens and result in a breezy Friday morning. 

Following the frontal passage, Friday morning will be clear and cold. As the day progresses, temperatures will remain at or below freezing and upper-level clouds will build in throughout the afternoon.



-Clark

Tuesday, January 31, 2023


 
 
 
 




Tuesday Night:
Mostly Clear. Low: 13
 
 
 


Wednesday:
Partly Cloudy. High: 35




Wednesday Night:
Partly Clear. Low: 24


 
 


Thursday:
Partly Cloudy. High: 42

 
 



Thursday
Night:
Mostly Clear Low: 15

 

 

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Discussion: 

Temperatures will begin to gradually warm up out ahead of an approaching cold front with high temperatures in the mid-30s on Wednesday and into the 40s by Thursday. The frontal passage will be over Mid-Missouri by Thursday afternoon with cold northerly winds on the backside. No precipitation will be associated with the front due to the lack of moisture in the mid to lower levels.

- McCormack
 =================================================================

Forecasters: Smith, McCormack, Peine

Date Issued: 1/31/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:


The GFS was favored for this forecast for its better handling of moisture at the time of diagnostics when compared to the NAM. The main focus will be regarding the passage of a cold front midday Thursday but outside of that weather is expected to be calm and clear.


The main upper level system is a low pressure system over northeast Canada. The jet stream, as seen at 250 mb, is currently sitting to the east of Missouri as it follows the LPS out east and northward. Small patches of upper level divergence associated with the exiting jet stream will sporadically frequent the area. The 500 mb map of vorticity shows a strong band moving through the area at 9Z Thursday and then another weaker band will move through the area 3Z Friday. These bands are being driven by a LPS over Baja California and then they are getting picked up and drug over Mid-MO via zonal flow
The major story of the mid to low levels is the lack of moisture. The same aforementioned LPS continues to sit in the far northeastern reaches of Canada at these layers. Throughout the forecast period, this relatively strong system will keep the area dry as strong zonal flow keeps the moisture in the northern states, limiting cloud development. In spite of this, GFS soundings still show occasional upper level cloud development likely due to the aforementioned vorticity bands. Later on, we can see CAA mid Thursday into early Friday morning due to a SFC HPS sitting over MN. There will be a shift in the winds from the west to the north bringing cold air and colder temperatures starting around 15Z Thursday. Columbia’s temperatures, which will have highs in the upper 30’s/low 40’s Wednesday and Thursday, will be cut down as this front moves through bringing the areas highs into the low 30’s for Friday. Due to radiative cooling and calm winds, the low temps on Tuesday and Thursday will reach down to 13F and 15F respectively. On Wednesday evening however there will likely be more clouds shown by soundings holding the low for the evening at 24F.




-Smitty