Wednesday, December 8, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 39



Thursday:
Sky clearing through the morning. High: 60



Thursday Night:
Moonlit sky. Low: 42



Friday:
Cloudy with scattered light rain. High:65



Friday Night:
Scattering
clouds through the night. Low: 37

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

    To recover from the cool weather earlier this week, some warmer temperatures are in store for the remainder of the week! A clear sky is expected as temperatures climb, reaching into the mid-60s on Friday. However, the week will end sour with the passage of a cold front Friday evening, bringing cold temperatures and a slight chance of rain. Hopefully, we can make use of this melancholy Reading Day by prepping for Finals Week. Trace amounts of precipitation are expected for the rest of the week.

-McMullen

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Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 12/8/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

    For our forecasting period, both the NAM40 and GFS20 were compared to the current surface map produced by the NWS. Both models followed fairly well with the pressure contours as well as the locations of the two highs to our north and a low near the Gulf Coast of Texas. However, both models had difficulties with the pressure contours and pressure systems on the West Coast. In addition, both the SREF and GEFS plumes were consulted for the current surface temperatures, and both ran colder than the actual temperature at Sanborn. So, we ultimately decided to observe data from both models to see where they agreed and where some uncertainty lies. Satellite imagery was used to observe current regional cloud cover and both the NAM and GFS soundings were also utilized to forecast sky conditions.

    Starting with the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence, a ridge is passing over at 21Z Wednesday. This ridge eventually gives way to strong zonal flow around 9Z Thursday, allowing a jet streak to spread to our north. Around 18Z Friday, a strong trough begins to move across the CONUS from the Rockies, forcing the downstream portion of the jet streak into the Mississippi Valley. This creates some divergence over Missouri Friday evening all the way through Saturday at 12Z, when the trough is directly over the Mid-Missouri.

    As we look towards the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, some circulation can be anticipated as the previously mentioned ridge continues to the east. The accompanying zonal flow keeps the air calm, however some spotty circulation ahead of the incoming trough begins to push through Missouri. This culminates in strong circulation aloft as the trough from the Rockies enters the Middle Mississippi Valley around 10Z Saturday.

    Following up with the 700-mb plot of heights, omega, and RH, no saturation is present over or around Missouri until 21Z Friday. During this time, a LPS and it's correlating trough moves moisture from the West Coast/Rockies across the northern Plains which saturates the northern half of the Mississippi Valley. This moisture will be crucial for cloud development and possible precipitation through the rest of the forecasting period.

    Finally, the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature shows a westerly wind shift south as the noted ridge treks on. This southerly wind begins to rotate clockwise until the LPS and its trough move closer, forcing our winds to shift southwest. At around 6Z Saturday, the LPS and a cold front extending to the SW have passed far enough to our NE that the winds come clockwise to westerly before settling into northwesterly at the end of the week. WAA can be seen on the MSLP and 1000-mb to 500-mb thickness over our area until 18Z Thursday, helping to warm up our surface temperatures. The next batch of WAA, starting 9Z Friday, continues to warm us up thanks to the incoming LPS. However, with its overhead passage, some CAA could bring cooler temperatures for the rest of Friday.

    Soundings indicated a slight chance of precipitation Friday. With KI in the 20s, nothing significant is expected. Since the QPF from both the GEFS and SREF plumes had quite a bit of uncertainty between their ensemble members and each other, a conservative trace amount of rain could occur Friday.

    Future forecasters should be aware of the uncertainty in the models, as well as the cooler projections of both models. Pay close attention to the trough to our west Saturday as future models may provide better insight.

- Noblitt

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field





Wednesday:
Increasing clouds. High: 48


 


Wednesday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 37


 


Thursday:
Clearing sky throughout the day. High: 60         

 

Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 42


 


Friday:
Building clouds. High: 68

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

If all you want for Christmas is some warmer weather, fear not--we'll be leaving some of these chilly temperatures behind later this week. Despite some cloudiness Wednesday night, sunshine is to be expected on Wednesday and Thursday, but the sky will turn overcast early Friday. Don't be surprised if you feel a raindrop or two when leaving campus on Friday afternoon! This will be the best chance of rain this week, although only trace accumulations are expected.
 
- Macko

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/8/21 10:00 AM CDT

Technical discussion: 

Meridional flow is dominating the entirety of the CONUS placing a trough to Missouri’s east and west and a ridge moving west into Missouri as Wednesday progresses. Flow changes to become zonal overnight and continue into Thursday when a strong jet will entrench itself just north of Missouri. Winds on Friday shift back to meridional as a well defined trough forms in the Dakotas.

Vorticity builds overnight Wednesday in Kansas which will make its way into Missouri by early Thursday morning. This vorticity continues to push east as the day progresses and by Thursday night, central Missouri is clear of vorticity until Friday when vorticity builds throughout the day to the end of the forecast period.

Missouri will be considerably dry until Friday when upper level moisture from Kansas begins to make its way into Missouri.

Winds near the surface will be out of the west on Wednesday but will shift to the southwest overnight bringing dry, warmer air into Thursday morning. Friday an area of low pressure from Nebraska makes its way into the Mississippi Valley, which will shift winds back to a westerly component during the evening hours on Friday.

A deep moisture profile overnight on Wednesday indicates that there will be the presence of clouds but those clouds should begin to clear during the day on Thursday. Low clouds begin to develop early Friday morning. If moisture prevails, there could be trace amounts of rain early Friday morning. Future forecast shifts should keep an eye on this.

Since the last forecast shift used the NAM and the NAM was running considerably cold, a decision was made to bump up Thursdays high by 10 degrees despite the rule of four. Timing of cloud cover and a shift in winds also made it more likely that the temperature would be warmer. Future forecast shifts may want to bump up Thursdays high more.

-Kobielusz

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday Night:
Cloudy with possible snow flurries. Low: 26



Wednesday:
Cloudy.High: 44

 


Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 33



Thursday:
Clear. High: 50



Thursday Night
:
Clear . Low: 46

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: It would be wise to wear a coat this week, as cold winds are going to blow through Missouri Tuesday and Wednesday night. Tuesday night will be the coldest temperature seen this week, that being in the upper 20s due to the cold westerly winds of 10-20 mph. The weather pattern will begin shifting this week that will bring about southerly flow and thus, warmer weather.

-Watts


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Forecasters: Watts, VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/06/21 5:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:  

The 12Z run of NAM40 was used for this forecast. The NAM and GFS both reached temperatures that remained accurate with what was observed at Sanborn Field, yet the NAM seemed to have better placement of the trough-ridge-trough pattern. During this forecast period, a very meridional flow takes stage across the CONUS, leading to variable weather over the next few days.
A positively tilted trough axis drapes over mid-Missouri on Tuesday night, as displayed at 300mb. This causes a wind shift from westerly to northwesterly on Wednesday morning, before a ridge pushes the trough out east and takes its place by afternoon. Yet another trough follows behind, making its way to the Midwest on Thursday, this time being a negatively tilted shortwave. Again, the pattern offers a wind shift, and southwest winds bring warmer air to Missouri on Thursday night.
The aforementioned trough on Tuesday night is seen again at 500mb, deepening off to Missouri's east. This is followed by a ridge on Wednesday, meaning fair (but still cold) weather remains. Vorticity advects into the area on Thursday morning, but quickly pushes out to the northeast.
Moisture follows along the current trough at 700mb over northern Missouri, making its way southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The ridge on Wednesday brings positive Omega values on Thursday, followed by a southwesterly flow.
850mb shows more of the same, again broadcasting the ridge over Missouri on Wednesday. An LLJ along with the backside of the ridge brings a strong southerly flow to Missouri on Thursday night.
Solenoids are seen on the surface analysis as cold air advects into the area on Tuesday. Columbia, and most of Missouri, remains on the cold side of the 540 line until Wednesday morning. There is a slight chance for snow flurries overnight. WAA brushes into Missouri late Thursday night, coming from both the south and the west. Due to the timing of it, the WAA brings a halt to the nighttime cooling, and temperatures will remain steady until sunrise brings with it a significant warm-up.
NAM Soundings aided cloud and temperature forecasting, and temperatures showed on the 12Z run had a significant warming trend in comparison to previous Campus Weather Forecasts. The temperatures on this forecast show quite a jump due to the model that we used, and its accuracy for temperatures seen today.

Future forecasters should keep an eye out for a chance of rain Friday morning.

 -VanUnnik 

 

Monday, December 6, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Monday Night:
Becoming Cloudy. Low: 27


Tuesday:
Cloudy. Isolated afternoon snow flurries. High: 37


Tuesday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 28

Wednesday:
Clear. High: 48


Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 37

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:
 

Winter precipitation in the forecast? "Snow" way! The trend of cold winds will continue into tonight as we will reach a low of 27. Clouds will begin moving in and the winds picking up to less than 10 mph and start shifting to become southeasterly by Tuesday morning. Tuesday's winds will remain about the same as we reach a high in the mid-upper 30s. Clouds will be rolling in and we can expect to see some isolated snowflakes in the mid-afternoon. However, nothing is expected to accumulate. Winds are expected to slow slightly and the sky to clear up Tuesday night with a low in the upper 20s. Wednesday will be mostly clear with light winds from the west and a high of 48. A few clouds can be seen making their way back into the area on Wednesday night and winds will become southeasterly and gain in strength, keeping our low at 37.

-Alexander


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Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch

Date Issued: 12/06/21 5:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:    

The first full week of December is making its mark with blustery winds and some flurries. Over the weekend, a trough moved into the region and began cooling off the areal temperatures. We mainly relied on how the models were handling this feature and noticed that the NAM was keeping better track of it overall. However, the surface temperatures that the NAM was outputting seemed too low to realistically occur, so we consulted with the NBM and GEFS plumes for the temperatures. To aid in forecasting the upcoming precipitation event, the NAM NEST was also used.

Currently, there is a low pressure system near Hudson Bay. This system created the trough that brought our current cool temperatures and is moving east. By moving east, the upper level jet stream is becoming more zonal, still from north of the Rockies. There is also a strengthening low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific northwest, north of the jet stream. This low pressure system is pushing south along the west coast and will eventually reach the southern coast of California.

As the low pressure system travels south, it will become a cutoff low and split the jet stream. The effect of this will be two jet streams, one that is weaker and will continue flowing north of the Rocky Mountains; the other, a stronger stream, will flow over the Four Corners region. The flow from the north will bring some moisture to the Great Plains and Midwest while the flow from the Four corners will provide some mid-level negative omega Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night causing precipitation to occur. With these features we can expect to see some flurries tomorrow, but nothing accumulating.

Late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the Four Corners flow is pushed out of the area by another longwave trough connected to the Hudson Bay low pressure system. This trough will promptly be followed, and pushed out, by a ridge from the Four Corners region. 

Throughout the forecast period, winds tend to stay southerly and light, with some exceptions. The first of which is our current winds, which will veer overnight and begin coming form the southeast. The second exception will be late Wednesday night; once the winds shift from the southeast, they could start gusting up to 20kts.

The next forecasting shift should watch the winter precipitation for Tuesday afternoon, as it may simply not occur as there is a large dry layer underneath it. 

-Alexander

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field





Monday:
Clear. High: 38


Monday Night:
Becoming Cloudy. Low: 27


Tuesday:
Cloudy. Chance of afternoon snow flurries. High: 37


Tuesday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 28


Wednesday:
Clear. High: 48

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:
 

Winter weather has arrived! Strong winds brought in below average temperatures that swept the area this morning. Temperatures won't warm up much, but sunshine will hopefully keep it feeling warmer. Clouds begin to roll in Monday night into Tuesday. Snow flurries in the late morning through the afternoon, Tuesday are likely. The storm quickly gets out of our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Leading to above average temperatures and sunshine on Wednesday.

-Baker


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Forecasters: Baker, Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 12/06/21 10:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:    

It's finally starting to feel like December as highs dip into the 30s and snow becomes a topic of conversation. A blend of NAM and GFS was used for this forecast.

Both NAM and GFS show meridional flow at the 300-250mb level for the entire forecast period. Upper level winds dip down over the middle Mississippi river valley on Monday, allowing for cold, polar air to make it's way into the area. On Tuesday, divergence moves into the area in pockets, with the most divergence in the afternoon. This leads to the possibility of storms and potentially some winter weather. For Wednesday, ridging appears to move into the area, leaving calmer conditions behind it.

At the 500 mb level, there are high levels of vorticity that appear on Monday for both NAM and GFS. These values grow and seem to peak Tuesday afternoon, which could potentially cause some kind of precipitation. For Wednesday, ridging is still evident.

Omega values are low for Monday at the 700 mb level. GFS shows low RH values for Monday, but rising RH for Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. NAM shows this rise in RH values as well as a rise in Omega values Tuesday afternoon. Pairing this with the divergence and vorticity that appears at this time, the chance for precipitation is evident. For Wednesday, the atmosphere dries out.

A strong LLJ is present at the 850 mb level, causing strong northerly winds. The LLJ seems to weaken into Tuesday, and is not apparent for Wednesday either. At the surface, CAA is evident with solenoids and a tight PGF on Monday. Tuesday, winds shift to the south, bringing in sufficient moisture to produce precipitation. The 540 thickness line rides the middle Mississippi river valley, leading to forecasted snow for Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday, winds seem to stay southerly and WAA takes over.

 -Cade

Friday, December 3, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 

Friday Night:
 Scattered high clouds. Low: 38
 

Saturday:
 Cooler with high clouds. High: 52


Saturday Night:
 Increasing clouds. Low: 40




Sunday:
 Overcast, chance for light rain in the morning. High: 65




 Sunday Night:
Cloudy and colder. Low: 30

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

A mild weekend is in store for Mizzou students with the unseasonably warm temperatures slowly decreasing back to winter levels overnight on Sunday. Some clouds expected on Friday and Saturday, then increasing to overcast conditions on Sunday. A chance of light rain is possible early Sunday morning as well. Mostly calm and warm weather throughout the weekend. It will be an excellent opportunity to put up those holiday decorations.

- Ethridge

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Forecasters: Ethridge, Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 12/3/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

This forecast made use of the GFS model as well as sounding data and SREF plumes. The most notable problems for this weekend are a chance for light rain early on Sunday as well as high temperatures throughout the weekend. 

At the 250 hPa level, the jet stream stays to the north of Missouri until late Sunday night. Zonal flow is seen over the region with shifts to the northwest on Saturday and then southwest on Sunday. This southwesterly flow is driven by a trough starting to move over Missouri as the weekend draws to a close. The same trend can be seen at the 500 hPa level with any circulation staying to the north of Columbia until Monday.

Moisture also stays to the north of the forecast region for most of the weekend. The 700 hPa level shows some atmospheric moisture in northern Missouri, but very little in the central region of the state. The sounding, however, does appear to suggest some very light rain is possible on Sunday morning but it does not seem definitive. 

When the jet stream moves south over our region again late Sunday night, the winds shift to northerly at the 850 hPa level, as well as the surface, and cold winter temperatures return to our area. Until then, however, it looks like a very warm and mild weekend. 

-Ethridge

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Friday:
Sunny. High: 67
 

Friday Night:
Scattered high clouds. Low: 40
 

Saturday:
Cooler with high clouds. High: 52


Saturday Night:
Clouds moving in. Low: 42




Sunday:
Overcast, then mostly cloudy. High: 68

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue into this weekend with fairly quiet days ahead. Friday will see plenty of sunshine with southerly winds boosting high temperatures nearly 20 degrees above average. Overnight, a cold front will dip into the region from the north and bring a few clouds but the most noticeable change will be cooler conditions Saturday; temperatures will still be unusually warm for early December. This fair weather will be due to high pressure sliding by to our north, but as it traverses eastward, we will see a return of southerly winds and consequently higher temperatures on Sunday. Highs again reach upwards of 20 degrees above average on Sunday afternoon. Another more formidable cold front will push through the area near dinnertime on Sunday and may produce a few light showers but will certainly spell an end to the unseasonal warmth.

- Splater

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Forecasters: Splater, Schneringer, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/3/21 10:00 AM CST

Technical discussion: 

A chance for light rain Sunday morning serves as the main focus for this forecast, with slight disagreement between the NAM and the GFS on precipitation placement serving as the crux of uncertainty. Due to the NAM's significantly colder handling of temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning, the GFS was consulted for this forecast, along with Skew-T's and cross-sections. 

A strong upper level jet streak is centered over northern Minnesota today as the polar front tracks roughly along the US-Canada border from coast to coast. A zonal flow regime is in place over the Great Plains at all of the upper levels. Moderate RH values at and around 250 mb serves as the only significant moisture present in the atmosphere over the forecast area today. A weak front pushes into the region from the north, bringing northerly flow and higher pressure behind it at the lower levels. Passage will occur around 21Z this afternoon, and will enforce a colder low temperature tonight.

Friday night into Saturday is much the same story aloft as the day before. Weak flow coupled with dry conditions will lead to calm weather. As a high pressure system progresses eastward across the Dakotas, winds will shift to the east at the surface throughout the day and into the evening. A progression towards southerly flow by 06Z will serve to stymie the low temperature Saturday night somewhat. Southerly flow aloft Saturday evening will also start advecting moisture into the forecast area in the lower levels.

Sunday sees the development of a trough at the upper levels to our northwest. Ahead of a strong, northwesterly jet blasting down through the Rockies, this pattern will begin to progress towards Missouri. The leeward side of the developing trough will push weak upper level divergence over the forecast region Sunday. Coupled with strong RH values at 850 mb, these features could lead to light precipitation values for the region. The uncertainty lies in the magnitude of forcing present over the region, with the GFS being slightly more reserved on precipitation amounts than the NAM. Either way, any showers that do occur will be very light. As the morning progresses, surface winds will shift to the southwest, and a cold front begins to approach the region Sunday evening.

-Schneringer