Sunday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 33
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Clouds and gusty winds look to move in on Saturday, bringing seasonally warm temperatures, with periods of clouds and sun between Saturday night and Sunday night. Highs in the low to mid 50's and lows right around freezing.
Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, McGuire
Date Issued: 2/3/23 4:20PM CST
Visible satellite observations show a clear sky over the entire CWA. GFS is the model used in this forecast due to its superior temperature accuracy along with its use as a spectral model for a relatively stable atmosphere. Due to stable atmospheric conditions, the chief concern of this forecast is high winds Saturday through Sunday.
At 300mb, the CWA is under the influence of a ridge, bringing stable conditions until 21Z Saturday. A shortwave trough then moves in Sunday 9Z-12Z followed by a jet streak that will last through the end of the forecast period. Winds at all upper levels consist of a zonal, westerly regime throughout the forecast period.
A large vort max will move over the CWA Saturday 00Z-03Z in conjunction with a shortwave approaching from the west. Winds are out of the northwest until the shortwave passes, changing them to a more westerly component.
The 700mb layer is dry throughout the forecast period, reducing any chance for active weather in conjunction with the previously mentioned short wave. The shortwave passes over the CWA Sunday 00Z-06Z.
A large wave of WAA will pass over the CWA from Friday 21Z to Saturday 15Z with a maximum of 24 degrees Celsius per hour, which should increase temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. This is due to a change in wind flow to a more southwesterly component brought on by a high pressure system situated over southern Arkansas. Low-level winds reach 50 knots out of the west on Sunday 03Z, which may lead to gusty winds at the surface. Solenoids in conjunction with southerly winds at the surface further indicate WAA over the CWA Friday 21Z to Saturday 15Z. Winds reach 10-15 knots at the surface through all of Saturday and Sunday with a westerly shift on Sunday 09Z.