Tuesday: Sunny. High: 65
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 45
Thursday: Chance of rain in the afternoon. High: 70
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Discussion:
Sunny and breezy conditions will persist for the next two days with moderating temperatures in the 60s to near 70. You'll notice a cloudy sky for Thursday ahead of the next chance for rain. While the early part of the day looks to be dry, the second half looks to have increasing chances of rain especially in the late afternoon. So be sure to bring an umbrella for Thursday afternoon as rain chances can't be ruled out.Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik
Date Issued: 05/02/2023 10:00 AM CDT
A windy and sunny couple of days have been the main story for Central MO due to an omega blocking pattern over the CONUS. This blocking pattern will begin to break down later this week ahead of our next chance for rain. Both of the models were utilized for this forecast period due to their agreement on upper-level ridging in place that extends down to the surface.
Aloft, a strong low pressure system has been circulating over the Great Lakes Region as well as another low off the West Coast. These two troughs over the Eastern Seaboard and West Coast have allowed for upper-level ridging to build in to the Central CONUS. This omega blocking pattern will allow for sunny and dry conditions over the next couple of days. A strong pressure gradient due to the attendant surface low over the Great Lakes will allow for strong northwesterly winds to persist today although winds won't be as strong as they were Monday. A clearing sky tonight will help provide sufficient radiational cooling which will keep temperatures near 40 tonight and some areas may dip into the 30s.
The next chance for rain will arrive for Thursday as the ridge will start to deamlify. Increased moisture will begin to move in around 18Z Thursday ahead of a strengthening LLJ. Despite a switch to southerly winds, Thursday's high only looks to reach about 70 due to cloud cover and the potential for rain. Adequate forcing won't be apparent till the afternoon which is when rain chances will increase heading into Thursday afternoon. Rainfall totals look to be within a T-0.05" as most of the dynamics won't come together until Thursday overnight.
This is when the next forecast group should monitor how much rain will be expected and if it will still be raining for everyone's favorite day at Mizzou: Stop Day.
Signing off for the last time,
-Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik
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