Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

    Friday Night: Clear. Low:45

Saturday: Sunny. High: 74

 

     

    Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

 

    Sunday: Sunny. High: 77

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

The pace of a snail with interesting weather as we continue into the next couple of days. Perfect weather for the Mizzou game Saturday night. Clouds staying out of the way with a gradual increase in temperatures as we go into next week.

- Labit

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Forecasters: Easter, Labit, Allen, Travis

Date Issued: 09/30/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

 There is a large amount of nothing keeping as the trend. The GFS and NAM agree that a cut-off low pressure system is sitting over the Pacific northwest remaining stationary along with a ridge over the central states. This ridge is in conjunction with Ian and the low pressure system amplifying it over the central states. Some upper-level vorticity is present on the NAM model though the GFS doesn't agree. With no moisture at 700mb, we're steering more with the GFS with the likelihood of no active weather. No moisture being driven into the central plains keeping dew points below 50°. Despite surface winds coming from the north east, a gradual warming trend will continue as the center of the upper-level ridge moves east.

-Labit

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

Friday: Mainly Sunny. High: 74

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

 Saturday: Sunny. High: 76

 

 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 48  

Sunday: Sunny. High: 77

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

Sky conditions will remain clear throughout the weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s. You'll want to grab a light jacket for the game Saturday evening as the sun starts to set and radiational cooling begins to take place. Sunday will be our warmest day as sunshine continues to stick around heading into next week.

- McCormack, Peine  

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Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

Date Issued: 09/30/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

The 06Z run of the NAM and GFS was used for this forecast, but due to the disagreements in temperature with the NAM, we used the GFS to forecast our high and low temperatures. We believed the NAM was cold biased for temperatures.

At the beginning of our forecast period, we are watching Hurricane Ian in the southeast crawl slowly up the Carolina coast which is preventing any active weather from moving into our area. A low pressure system is currently stagnant over the Inter-mountain West, so we are sandwiched in between with a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. From 250mb down to the surface, we are relatively quiet, with dry air in place and easterly surface winds keeping temperatures seasonal for this time of year (Avg High: 75, Avg Low: 53).

A Meridional flow is expected throughout the weekend, which will continue to bring clear conditions to our area. We analyzed 850mb temperatures from future GFS 12Z soundings to estimate afternoon high temperatures. We compared these estimates with the NAM to develop our forecast highs. Due to the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling will take place each night, allowing our temperatures to drop into the upper 40s. 

As Hurricane Ian moves off to the northeast by the end of the weekend, this will allow the trough to our northwest to gradually move east during the early to middle part of next week. The next forecast shift should monitor this trough and look out for increasing chances of rain next week. 

- McCormack, Peine

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

Friday: Mainly sunny. High: 74

 

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

 

 

Saturday: Mainly sunny. High: 78

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

Cooler mornings continue into the end of the week, with sunny days persisting as well. You'll want to bring a jacket with you in the early part of the day, but as the days go on you might not need it in the afternoon. We enter a slight warming trend headed into the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures for Saturday's home football game.

- Chirpich

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Chirpich, Rangel

Date Issued: 09/29/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast, as it had less disagreement between runs with its modeled temperatures compared to the NAM. However, the GFS seemed to be running lower than the observed temperatures, while the NAM was running higher. Because of this, the NBM was also used as a guidance when forecasting high and low temperatures for the period. The problem of the day is variable winds and temperatures due to the forecast area lying between two low pressure systems.

One of the two aforementioned low pressure systems resides over Montana at the beginning of the forecast period, while Hurricane Ian continues to track along the east coast. These low pressure systems are notable all the way from 250mb down to the surface. CONUS is captivated by a meridional flow for the next couple of days, bringing consistently warmer afternoons and cooler evenings for the forecast period. The coupling of the polar and subtropical jet on the east coast amplifies this flow.

A deepening tilted trough, which stretches from Maine to West Virginia on the 500mb map, is being influenced by the presence of Hurricane Ian. As Ian moves north up the east coast, it places Missouri right in between it and the low pressure system over Montana. Wind direction is influenced by the two low pressure systems at multiple levels, particularly being influenced by Hurricane Ian as it progresses northward inland, most notably causing a wind shift from southerly to easterly at 00Z Saturday, leading to less moisture inflow. A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Midwest on Friday at 21Z, separating the two systems and leaving central Missouri with fair weather. This, along with diurnal heating is what is going to influence our seasonal temperatures over the weekend.

Soundings were consulted for temperature and dewpoint profiles, confirming the lack of moisture in the atmosphere, as suspected from high pressure and ridging patterns throughout the shift. 

- Chirpich

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

  

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 74

 

 

 
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

Saturday: Sunny. High: 76

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:   

Lots of sunshine and shifting winds from the south will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, closer to the seasonal average for the days ahead. Due to lack of cloud cover, we expect cool mornings as overnight lows drop into the upper 40s. The end of the week will be great for some fall outdoor activities. 

 

-Sallot

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Forecasters: Baker, Sallot, Thomas, Sausen

Date Issued: 09/29/2022 8:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Our forecast today was focused on the NAM, mainly due to it being much closer to the model averages in terms of temperatures than the GFS, although model agreement in terms of the weather pattern for the forecast period is rather high.

The upper level longwave trough that’s been situated over our area for the past few days has finally shifted off to our east, becoming positively tilted as it deamplifies over the Northeast, giving way to a longwave ridge over the central third of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper level low has begun to amplify over the Pacific Northwest, leaving Mid-MO in an area of relatively calm and stable conditions at the 250MB layer through Saturday night.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is progged to form between Iowa and Kansas later this afternoon, slowly working its way into Missouri by Friday morning before being absorbed into the larger high pressure system dominating the area. Although there is a marginal amount of moisture nearby at the 700mb level, it should remain displaced well to the west of the trough eliminating any chance of cloudiness with it.
At the surface, a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes is to remain in place, sandwiched between a weakening Ian and a nearly stationary low over the Rockies. Surface winds from ESE should slowly shift to E tonight, staying that way through the forecast period.
With a general pattern of backing winds, low moisture and a surface high pressure we can expect pleasant, seasonally average and sunny conditions through the fcst period.

-Thomas

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 74

 

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:   

Through the end of the week we will see a continuance of clear and sunny skies. Due to the high pressure system hanging over Missouri our fall temperatures will continue with a slight increase as we end the week in the mid 70s and nighttime temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

-Jones

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 09/28/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Using a mixture of the GFS and NAM a high pressure system can be seen dominating the CWA for the forecasting period. This will keep the region dry and bring on slightly warmer temperatures as we move through the week.  

As an upper-level trough and the jet stream exit the region, a short-wave trough can be seen over southern Missouri Wednesday evening at 21Z. As this trough moves eastward, it is followed by a HPS that sticks around over the Great Plains for the rest of the week. This HPS sandwiched between a significant LPS in the PNW and Hurricane Ian in the SE prevents moisture and convection from infiltrating our area. 

The low levels show the same story with the HPS preventing significant moisture transport and temperature advection. Surface winds fluctuate between east and south bringing slightly warmer temperatures with Friday reaching the mid 70s. Overnight clear skies allow for radiative cooling with nighttime lows hanging in the mid to upper 40s. The GFS soundings support our mild weather showing dry profiles for the duration of the forecasting period.  

Future forecasters should be weary of the low pressure systems from the PNW and Hurricane Ian encroaching on the area.

-Cochran, Jones, Smith

 

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 68

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 72

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:   

We'll continue to see fall-like weather as the first full week of astronomical fall comes to a close! High temperatures in the upper 60's to low 70's and few to no clouds will persist into the start of the weekend.

-Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis

Date Issued: 09/28/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Expecting a cookie-cutter forecast through the end of this week with cool, seasonal temperatures and little in the way of cloud cover. This is largely due to the presence of an upper-level ridge which will stick around for several days. The NAM and GFS were both taken into consideration for this forecast; however, some caution was exercised with the NAM, as it was somewhat aggressive with moisture and vorticity advection.

A trough present in the upper levels made its way out of MO this morning as a persistent meridional pattern takes its place. High pressure over the central US is sandwiched between a stagnant closed low over MT and the presence of Hurricane Ian in the SE. As would be expected, there's not much in the way of large-scale circulation in the ridge between these two features.

The mid levels remain quite dry through the end of the period. The closed upper-level low to our NW becomes less evident, especially at 850mb, though moisture associated with the low is abundant in that region. This may be something worth keeping an eye on in future forecast shifts, but will stay well NW of MO through at least Friday night. An area of high pressure over IA will slowly sink SE Thursday and Friday, which will help shift low-level winds from the NE to generally E/ESE. As a result, high temperatures will stay fairly steady, though trending slightly upward by the end of the period. 

-Shaw

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 68

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

 

 Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Having a hard time getting up for those 8am classes? No problem! These crisp, fall morning temperatures are here to jolt you awake. You'll definitely want to keep a light jacket with you as you head to class. All-day sunshine is expected to prevail through the end of the week, so the afternoons should be comfortable enough for you to throw that light jacket in your backpack. 

 

- Macko

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Forecasters: Meier, Simmons, Macko

Date Issued: 09/27/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

This forecast was developed using a blend of the 12Z run of the GFS20 and the 18Z run of the NAM12 as well as a little bit of input from the NBM for this week's temperatures. Overall, the GFS has been handling temperatures relatively well when compared to the NAM12. Outside of temperatures, the models seem to be agreeing on other conditions such as wind speed/direction and the placement of high and low pressure systems across the CONUS. The main focus of the forecasters for this forecast period was the ridge off to the west and how that will impact the weather in the coming days. 

On Tuesday afternoon, the upper-level jetstream could be found extending meridionally from the Great Lakes region down into the Upper Midwest before reaching back up the eastern seaboard. This is all in association with a positively-tilted upper-level trough enforced by a low-pressure system in southern Quebec. As this low-pressure system continues its eastward trek, zonal flow over Missouri will return. Here, Missouri will remain outside of upper-level jetstream influence for the entirety of the forecast period. Come late Thursday evening, an upper-level low-pressure system is expected to station itself briefly over Idaho and Montana. Future forecast shifts should direct their attention to this low-pressure system and how it may impact the weather heading into the weekend. 

Vorticity is colocated with the upper-level jetstream, with incredible intensity along the East Coast. Enhanced vorticity can also be observed over southern Florida in tandem with Hurricane Ian. As for Missouri, the mid-levels remain on the calm side with minimal vorticity expected across the region. Late Thursday evening, the GFS and NAM suggested that a band of vorticity extended from NE into SW Missouri would move eastward across the state throughout the late night hours. However, the environment will lack moisture in both the mid- and low-levels. Additionally, the GFS and the NAM are not too keen on the presence of any forcing during this time. Consequently, nothing of significance is expected. 

In addition to the lack of low-level moisture, an 850-mb jet is also absent. Moreover, high pressure is expected to prevail across the Central Midwest through the end of the week. As a result of this high pressure system and ridging, a sunny sky can be expected through Thursday.

- Macko

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

          

       

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 74

                             

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 68

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

  

  

 Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Pleasant Autumn temperatures are here to stay as a calm and cool weather pattern continues through the rest of the week. A lack of nighttime cloud cover due to a lack of moisture and the presence of high pressure means colder-than-average low temperatures in the lower 40s, so consider bringing plants with poor cold tolerance inside overnight.

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker

Date Issued: 09/27/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 Our forecast primarily used the GFS due to its better handle on our current temperatures; the NAM was around 10 degrees cooler than our temperatures at the time of forecasting while the GFS was within a couple degrees. However both were used as a guidance while putting together our forecast because both models show the meridional flow that ultimately gives way to the cooler pattern we will see through our forecast period. 

Over the past couple of days, mid-Missouri has seen surface wind gusts of over 20 mph.  The 250 mb jet stream associated with the trough to our east will move out of our area between 21z today and 06z tomorrow. After it leaves, our flow will become zonal until 21z tomorrow, where we start to transition to a weak meridional flow associated with a shortwave pattern that passes over us. This flow will be around 5-20 kt, leading the forecaster to lead towards calm conditions in the upper levels.

The 500 mb vorticity map tells a similar story to the 250 mb wind map. A lack of significant vorticity values over us for our forecast period will further support the quiet upper-level forecast. The winds take on a similar pattern as 250 mb, with a small area of anticyclonic flow, associated with the same shortwave we saw at 250 mb, in south-central MO developing at 03z Thursday. If lower-level moisture is present, we could see some cloud development over the next couple days.

At 700 mb, we can see that after 21z Tuesday there is no significant amount of moisture to facilitate cloud development for the rest of the forecast period. This is likely due to a high pressure system moving into the area from the west, pushing the little moisture present out to the east. This high pressure system will become our dominant system, helping to ensure a clear sky and stable temperatures for the rest of the forecast period.

 There is even less moisture available at 850 mb, ensuring no low-level clouds for the forecast period. The same high pressure system present at 700 mb can be seen moving in at 850 mb and temperatures at this level remain low which further supports the idea of cooler nighttime temperatures, no cloud cover, and daytime highs staying below average. At the surface, the picture is similar to the 850 mb level, with low humidity and nighttime temperatures in the lower 40s.

- Clark

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

             

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 49

 

 

Tuesday: Clear. High: 76

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 41

Wednesday: Clear. High: 68

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Things are starting off much cooler this week. Winds will prevail from the north for the beginning of the week, which will aid these cooler temperatures. High pressure and low moisture content will keeps the sky clear, which will lead to very cold nighttime lows and very nice daytime highs.

 

 

-Cook

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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 09/26/2022 5:00 PM

Technical Discussion:

 

A fall-like pattern will continue across mid-Missouri due to a longwave ridge over the Midwest. We chose the to base our forecast off the GFS due to its accuracy of the current conditions. The NAM had a clear warm bias of the current conditions. The NBM was also used as a reference for temperature forecasts.

At the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the GFS shows a winds out of the NW as a longwave trough moves through the Eastern CONUS. The GFS showed low wind divergence at the 250-mb level.

At 500-mb, GFS picked up weak to non-existent areas of circulation as the ridge moved into mid-Missouri. Winds continued out of the north as a high pressure system floated over Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle.

Moisture at the mid-levels is low for most of the forecast period as high pressure moves in from the southwest. This will bring a clear sky for the forecast period making mornings cooler due to radiational cooling.

The trend of a dry atmosphere continues the closer we get to the surface. Dewpoints at the surface will stay low for the forecast period. Winds will stay out of the north and switch to the east as the week progresses. The NAM forecast cooler mornings than the GFS but forecast daytime temperatures over six degrees warmer than the GFS. The GFS and NBM ran similar. Future shifts should continue monitoring these temperature differences. 

 

-Herion

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

             

Monday: Mostly sunny. High: 75

 

 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 47

 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 74

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low 43

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

A calm pattern of weather is in place over mid-Missouri to start off the work weak. Dry conditions are going to lend themselves nicely to sunny days, while a light, steady northerly breeze will contribute to brisk morning temperatures with pleasant daytime highs. 

 

 

-Schneringer

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 09/26/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A much more fall-like pattern has taken shape over the U.S. with a longwave (LW) trough over the eastern half of the CONUS keeping flow at all levels of the atmosphere out of the NW for the duration of the period. The main concern going forward is how this flow will affect high and low temperatures. There is little to no difference between the GFS and NAM regarding large-scale features or temperatures. Deterministic solutions as well as MOS was used to forecast temperatures while the National Blend was completely disregarded due to high spread in the highs and lows.

A longwave trough present over the eastern half of the CONUS is helping a modest upper-level jet streak sag southeast through the Midwest. On the backside of this trough, the jet streak will provide weak forcing in the upper-levels coupled with near saturation. This is evident in current IR and WV imagery with thin, upper-level cirrus clouds infiltrating northern Missouri. By Tuesday, the wave and associated jet streak will be well to the east with little impact on the area. Having said that, a very weak shortwave will ride the back end of the exiting trough and move into mid-Missouri by Wednesday afternoon. Big emphasis is placed on WEAK with little upper-level forcing and very weak circulation seen in the divergence and vorticity fields respectively.

Additionally, mid- and low-level moisture is virtually non-existent. The NAM favors a brief spout of mid-level saturation ahead of the shortwave with some modest WAA which could amount to some alto clouds (however the GFS is far drier). In the low-levels there is no saturation to speak of in the region, and with dominant northwesterly flow, low-level CAA reigns supreme. This will keep temperatures way below what the region experienced this time last week. Largely clear sky conditions overnight will aid in efficient cooling allowing for chilly morning lows.

High spread in the NBM meant that deterministic guidance and some consultation with MOS was largely used. For Wednesday, deterministic models favored an 8-10 F difference in daytime highs from Tuesday with no identifiable reason as to why. As mentioned above, winds will, for the most part, stay out of the northwest/northeast will eventually transitioning to be out of the east by Wednesday. CAA in the low levels certainly exists, but is not significant in either model solution. As such, went a few degrees warmer than deterministic guidance for Wednesday's high. Future shifts should pay attention to this and adjust as needed.

Travis