Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 58
 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 88
 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 60
 

 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 90

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 61

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Discussion: 

High pressure centers over Missouri as we work our way through the week. This will bring warmer than average temperatures during the afternoon. Expect abundant sunshine with few clouds and no rain expected! 

Simmons, Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Travis

Date Issued: 09/13/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

That's not a broken record you hear, it is just this week's forecast. Dominated by an upper-level ridge, mid-Missouri will continue to see a sky largely devoid of clouds and temperatures that continue to warm. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used with less stock placed in the GFS due to its significantly warmer initialization than the NAM. Additionally, the NAM initialized fog as was evident in the initial field soundings (the fog was confined to the river valleys) while the GFS initialized with a dewpoint depression over 20F. 

As mentioned, an upper-level ridge dominates over the inter-Mountain West and has kept Missouri in northwesterly flow aloft. By Thursday, this ridge will have moved east eventually centered over the region. Reflected in the lower levels, high pressure will also slide to the east and keep mid-Missouri winds at the surface out of the SSE. While no evidence of strong WAA is present in the lower levels or the surface, continuous south-southeasterly winds and a clear sky indicate a continued gradual warmup for the remainder of the forecast period. Previous forecasts have shown a slight cold bias in the NBM, thus have trended warmer than its guidance for Thursday. Future shifts should pay attention to how this guidance changes. Current thinking is that the warmup will continue for the rest of the week, but the NBM shows Wednesday as a peak in high temperatures.

Travis