Wednesday, September 14, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 




Wednesday:
Sunny. High: 88
 
 

Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 62
 
 

Thursday:
Sunny. High: 87
 
 

Thursday Night:
Mostly clear. Low: 61
 
 

Friday:
Becoming partly cloudy in the evening. High: 87


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Discussion: 

Above average temperatures will persist through the end of the forecast period, with highs generally in the upper 80's and lows in the low 60's. There should be little in the way of cloud cover today and tomorrow; however clouds will begin to increase Friday as moisture moves into the area. 
 
Shaw, Russell
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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis

Date Issued: 09/14/2022 10:00AM CDT


Technical Discussion:
 

Another lackluster forecast to end the work week. The upper-level ridge that has been the only feature of note continues to dominate. By the end of the forecast period, some reprieve from this rinse and repeat forecast process comes in the form of a weak shortwave traversing the upwind side of the ridge. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used with special note taken regarding the differences between the two models regarding moisture presence overnight Friday into Saturday just beyond our period. 

As mentioned above (and in every AFD this week), the upper-level ridge that has sat over the western half of the CONUS will continue its slow journey eastward. By Wednesday evening, the axis of the 500-hPa ridge will be centered over Missouri. A weak shortwave currently over the Four Corners Region will propagate ENE eventually helping to flatten that ridge as it moves east into the Ohio River valley. Additionally, a longwave trough of the west coast of Canada will begin to dig into the Pacific NW by the weekend hinting at a large-scale pattern shift for early next week. In the meantime, the shortwave will be knocking on the door to the region by Friday evening. Increased upper-level divergence and circulation will invade by Friday night.

Moisture looks to once again be a limiting factor. The low-level high pressure associated with the aforementioned ridge will sit to the southeast of MO, keeping the most efficient moisture transport well to the west over Kansas/Nebraska. Regardless, the mid-levels become saturated Friday evening with forcing from WAA present there and in the lower levels. That said, both NAM and GFS soundings depict a significant, near-surface, dry layer (near 30 degree dew point depression at the surface) that will make it considerably more difficult for drops to make it to the ground. The greatest chance for rain looks to occur beyond the forecast period overnight Friday into early Saturday morning.

Travis

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