Thursday, September 15, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 




Thursday:
Sunny. High: 86
 
 


Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 63

 


Friday:
Starts sunny with clouds moving in over the afternoon. High: 87
 
 

Friday Night:
Overcast Clouds. Low: 66

 

Saturday:
Overcast Clouds. High: 88


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Discussion: Warm weather will continue throughout the end of the week with highs in the upper 80's, as a high pressure system moves out of the area to the east. The sky will be dominated by sunny conditions, until a southwesterly shift in winds bring high humidity and overcast cloud cover through Friday to Saturday. While there is a good amount of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are not supportive of rain.

Sausen


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Forecasters: Baker, Sausen, Thomas

Date Issued: 09/15/2022 9:00 AM CDT


Technical Discussion:

As the upper level ridge slowly slides east throughout the day today, GFS was the model of choice as it had a better handling of the moisture content associated with the low pressure system over the Central Plains. This is important, as some of this moisture could spill into mid-Missouri. With this being said, NAM was leaning a few degrees cooler than GFS. The problem of the day is going to be how much moisture Missouri will be able to pick up on. If enough moisture is advected into Missouri, we could see a few warmer night due to cloud cover. 

As of this morning winds on the 250mb level has veered to the west and progressively throughout the day will transition to a southwesterly wind. This is going to be the last level to turn our of the southwest leading to southwesterly flow at all levels, until they take on a more westerly component Friday night. From  Areas of light divergence move through Missouri evident of possible convergence at the surface. A shortwave looks to sent a strong area of divergence through northwest Missouri . Further forecast shifts should keep a close eye on this. 

the 500mb map tells a similar story; however, the winds have already shifted to the south and throughout the day today will take on a more southwesterly component. The shortwave trough tracks through the Central Plains moving southwest to northeast through Kansas


An upper level ridge continues to stick around over most of the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This keeps Columbia comfortably in its bubble of high pressure, translating to sunny days and warm temperatures at the SFC.


The aforementioned ridge starts to clear the CWA giving Columbia a shift to westerly winds Thursday at 15Z and finally breaking away to more zonal flow Friday night into Saturday morning. As this HPS moves eastward, moisture starts to enter the region Saturday at 3Z due to southerly winds at the SFC.


The GFS SFC map shows a slight chance of precipitation early Saturday morning but this is not substantiated by the NAM. GFS soundings show some saturation in the mid-levels between Friday at 21Z and Saturday at 3Z but this is paired with a substantial dry layer at the SFC. So while our region might see an influx of moisture from southerly winds, the chance that saturation turns into anything more than cloud cover is unlikely.


The SFC also shows little to no temperature advection for the rest of the week. This keeps our temperatures similar to the past few days with highs in the mid-high 80s and night time lows reaching down to the low 60s due to radiative cooling. The low on Friday is slightly higher, around 64, due to the isolation of the overnight cloud cover.


Future forecasters should continue to track the exiting HPS and the moisture that follows.


Cochran

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