Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Saturday: Mainly sunny. High: 78
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 50
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Discussion:
Cooler mornings continue into the end of the week, with sunny days persisting as well. You'll want to bring a jacket with you in the early part of the day, but as the days go on you might not need it in the afternoon. We enter a slight warming trend headed into the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures for Saturday's home football game.
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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Chirpich, Rangel
Date Issued: 09/29/2022 5:00 PM CDT
The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast, as it had less disagreement between runs with its modeled temperatures compared to the NAM. However, the GFS seemed to be running lower than the observed temperatures, while the NAM was running higher. Because of this, the NBM was also used as a guidance when forecasting high and low temperatures for the period. The problem of the day is variable winds and temperatures due to the forecast area lying between two low pressure systems.
One of the two aforementioned low pressure systems resides over Montana at the beginning of the forecast period, while Hurricane Ian continues to track along the east coast. These low pressure systems are notable all the way from 250mb down to the surface. CONUS is captivated by a meridional flow for the next couple of days, bringing consistently warmer afternoons and cooler evenings for the forecast period. The coupling of the polar and subtropical jet on the east coast amplifies this flow.
A deepening tilted trough, which stretches from Maine to West Virginia on the 500mb map, is being influenced by the presence of Hurricane Ian. As Ian moves north up the east coast, it places Missouri right in between it and the low pressure system over Montana. Wind direction is influenced by the two low pressure systems at multiple levels, particularly being influenced by Hurricane Ian as it progresses northward inland, most notably causing a wind shift from southerly to easterly at 00Z Saturday, leading to less moisture inflow. A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Midwest on Friday at 21Z, separating the two systems and leaving central Missouri with fair weather. This, along with diurnal heating is what is going to influence our seasonal temperatures over the weekend.
Soundings were consulted for temperature and dewpoint profiles, confirming the lack of moisture in the atmosphere, as suspected from high pressure and ridging patterns throughout the shift.
- Chirpich
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