Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 86
 

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 60
 

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 87

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 61

 

Saturday: Increasing Clouds. High: 88

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Discussion:

High pressure continues to dominate our area for the next few days, bringing plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures to Mid-Missouri. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s as cloud cover stays to a minimum. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s, and some of those closer to the river or in valleys may see some patchy fog in the early morning hours before sunrise. However, a cold front off to our northwest will bring about cooler daytime temps and rain chances late this weekend into early next week.

-Thomas

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Forecasters: Smith, Sallot, Jomes, Cochran

Date Issued: 09/07/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 
For this forecast period, the 12Z NAM was the model of choice. As it handled the cooler night time temperatures as well as the fog and cloud cover a little but better this morning. GFS has the warmer temperatures staying further west, when NAM places mid-Missouri under the high pressure system situated over the Rockies, giving us a warmer day today. 

High pressure has dominated the western CONUS this week as it continues to dig in, giving Missouri northerly flow at all levels. The concentration of this forecast period is going to the temperatures through Saturday and what cloud cover we will be able to get could impact those. As the 250mb high pressure system tracks east, the jet stream is able to dig into the Central Plains, and moves into our area after our forecast period. Future shifts should be on the looks out for how this is going to effect us this weekend. 

The 500mb layer tells a similar story. There is a narrow band of vorticity that stretches northeast to southwest across mid-Missouri. It seems to be split with one area coming from the southeast and one from the northwest, ahead of the frontal passage. These areas could support the area of circulation that could promote possible precipitation. 

In correlation to the 500mb vorticity, there is a line of strong omega values associated with upward vertical motion on the 700mb map. This matches up with the same timing of the however the lift components seem to gradually decrease as the narrow band tracks southwest through our area. As it is decreasing as it approaches mid-Missouri, the values are not impressive, and I do not think it would be enough to support the lower level precipitation. Relative humidity at 700mb is not all impressive until Friday afternoon as the wind shifts, it should pool more moist air in from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The surface map is more telling. The upper atmosphere is mostly influenced by the high pressure and north/northwesterly flow. This keeps cloud cover to a minimum and temperatures to rise. However, the surface map shows the wind shifting from a north component to a more southerly component this afternoon. This shows that we will start to bring in the moisture and warmer temperatures from the south. The LLJ is not super impressive, but is rather impressive over the Central Plains. As the moisture pools ahead of the frontal boundary. This boundary moves through past our forecast period; however, we are already starting to see how this system is setting up over mid-Missouri. 

A sounding confirms these findings, as Missouri is pretty dry. As the wind shift occurred, we can see that on the sounding as well as future ones, the profile gets more saturated as we move through the week. 

-Baker