Friday, August 24, 2018

Friday Afternoon - Mix of sun and clouds.  High:  84-88.

Tonight - Scattered thunderstorms. Low:  68-72.

Saturday -  Sunny and humid. High: 92-96.

Saturday Night -  Mostly clear. Low:  70-74.

Sunday - Mostly sunny. High: 92-94.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Cooler weather remains for the remainder of Friday afternoon before summer comes back with a vengeance this weekend. A mix of sun and clouds will persist as we feel some lingering effects of the storms from last night. A chance for severe weather is possible for this evening, but the best location looks to be at the MO/IA border. This will move south overnight and by midnight, there is a chance for thunderstorms. By this point storms should have weakened so severe potential is limited. After this, the mid 90s returns for both Saturday and Sunday along with the sunshine. Expect heat indices to get into the upper 90s and even low 100s. Summer has come back in full swing. 
Forecaster:  Hirsch and Niemeyer
Issued:  1:20 p.m., August 24, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
At the start of the forecast period, the NAM was identified as the model of the day as the 12 UTC output best emulated the overnight rain shield. NAM Skew-ts depict clouds breaking apart after 18 UTC allowing for some daytime heating. This heating will allow parcels at the mid-levels to be convectively buoyant and the 2700+ J/kg of CAPE indicate the potential for some thunderstorms. Storms however will initiate on the MO/IA border which will be the best potential for severe weather. By the time it rolls to KCOU, by 06 UTC, it should weaken to where wind and hail criteria can be reached, but odds are low. The sun will return for the rest of the weekend. The moisture that fell will create a steamy weekend with heat indices back in play.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late afternoon. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms. Low:  60-64.

Friday -  Morning thunderstorms with afternoon clearing. Chance late afternoon thunderstorm High: 84-88.

Friday Night - 
Chance thunderstorm, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 90-94.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: The next 36-42 hours will be a wet one. This morning looks dry as cool temperatures continue. However, by mid afternoon, clouds will start to build as a warm front moves into the area. This could trigger some afternoon thunderstorms, but the main concern is the rain we will see overnight. This will start anytime after 6 pm and will continue into the mid-morning hours on Friday. The heaviest rain will be after midnight and before sunrise. Clouds could break up Friday afternoon and if so, could allow the atmosphere to produce some afternoon thunderstorms as well. When our rain chances end, we could see between 1/2 to 1 inch of rain that feel around the area. Saturday dries out and the sun returns, but so does the humidity and warm temperatures. Heat indices will once again become an issue.  
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  10:59 a.m., August 23, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The strong for summer ridge continues to shift off to the east, keeping us in a northerly flow at the surface. However aloft, the winds between 700-850 mb shift to south which will start to advect in moisture. This shift is what will aid in the development of the anticipated nighttime rain. Thursday starts off dry and sunny but an approaching warm front from the south moves close to the area. By 21 UTC, models indicate a potential for scattered afternoon showers. This is in conjunction with the current low location and associated rain in eastern KS and western MO. Rain is expected overnight and will initially be elevated as the warm front passes through. The LLJ reaches 50 kts and coupled with -10 mb/s 700 mb omega and ample moisture, overnight MCS very likely. For 6 hours or so, KCOU will be at the nose of the LLJ which is a favorable area for development and heavy rain. The MCS will move out of the region by 18 UTC but late afternoon storms are possible. After FROPA, clouds remain and warm temperatures come back. This daytime heating could destabilize the atmosphere again and give us a chance for afternoon thunderstorms especially if the sun comes out at any point. NE MO looks to have the greatest chance of severe weather as SPC has a slight while KCOU remains in the marginal. Severe weather looks slim for our area. By the end of the rain, we will easily see over 1/2" of rain with some models like the SREF indicating almost 1 inch. This will provide some relief for the area from the drought.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Today - Mostly sunny.  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Mostly clear. Low:  58-62.

Thursday -  Mostly sunny with chance afternoon t-storms. High: 78-82.

Thursday Night -  Rain and thunderstorms. Low:  60-64.

Friday - Early morning thunderstorms then mostly cloudy. Chance scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High: 84-88.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Pleasant weather continues for one more day before rain becomes a concern again. Temperatures today continue to be in the upper 70s to low 80s today with plenty of sunshine. This is the pick day of the forecast period as another warm moves into the area starting Thursday afternoon. There is a chance for scattered afternoon showers but the bulk of the moisture will be overnight. This looks to be a wet and stormy night. During this time period we can easily see 1/2" of rainfall by mid-Friday morning. We should dry out by 10 on Friday but clouds remains while warmer temperatures start to creep back in. The daytime warming could trigger some afternoon thunderstorms. 
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  9:41 a.m., August 22, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The GFS was used as the NAM was only providing 00 UTC output. The strong for summer ridge, 1024, continues to shift off to the east, keeping us in a northerly flow. This has brought in cooler and drier air that will continue for the next 24 hours. Temperatures overnight due to night time cooling could be 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Thursday starts off dry and sunny but an approaching warm front from the south moves close to the area. By 21 UTC, there is a potential for scattered afternoon showers as models show. Confidence is low as the front is still in SW MO for this time frame. Rain is expected overnight and will initially be elevated as the warm front passes through. The LLJ reacher 40 kts and coupled with -7 mb/s 700 mb omega and ample moisture, an overnight MCS looks very likely. The MCS will move out of the region by 14 UTC but could still linger for most of the morning. After FROPA, clouds remain and warm temperatures come back. This warming could destabilize the atmosphere again and give us a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. NE MO looks to have the greatest chance of severe weather as SPC has a slight while KCOU remains in the marginal. The timing, placement, and likelihood of severe weather seems slim for our area, but future forecasters should watch this closely. 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Today - Cloudy with mix of afternoon sun and clouds.  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low:  60-64.

Wednesday -  Mostly sunny. High: 78-82.

Wednesday Night - Mostly clear. Low:  58-62.

Thursday - Mostly sunny with chance for afternoon showers.  High: 78-82.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Unseasonably cool weather is in store during the forecast period. That low that moved through is still providing plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to create clouds for a majority of the day. The atmosphere should start to dry out of the afternoon as the low moves off to the east and a strong high pressure takes it's place. The high will give us a N/NW wind direction that will provide cooler air. Rain comes into the forecast again on Thursday afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to occur overnight and future forecasters should key in on timing and amounts.
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  11:04 a.m., August 21, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The after effects of the recent cold frontal passage and impacts are the main focus for the forecast today. The GFS was used as it allowed for the entirety of the forecast event on Thursday. The occluded low over northern MO and southern Iowa continues will push off to east over the afternoon hours. This will take some moisture with it, but clouds still remain due to evaporation with the associated rain from last night. As the low pushes off, a strong 1024 mb high moves into the area. This will give us a northerly flow which will bring in some cooler air. Temperatures could be up to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Another front approaches by 21 UTC on Thursday but at this points soundings indicate only rain for the area. This looks to intensify as the column becomes fully saturated and the forcing intensifies overnight, thanks to the aid of the LLJ. The amount CAPE associated with the system appears to be low so severe potential looks low. Amounts right now look to be between 0.3 to 0.7 inches during this event. Close monitoring of this event will need to looked at for future forecasters.

Monday, August 20, 2018

Today - Cloudy, chance afternoon rain.  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Cloudy. Low:  62-66.

Tuesday -  Mostly cloudy. High: 78-82.

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  58-62.

Wednesday - Mostly sunny.  High: 78-82.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: A dominate low pressure will affect us for the next 12 hours and have lasting effects on our forecast for the forecast period. For Monday, the low continues to give us clouds for the region with isolated showers for the afternoon. The best time looks to be before 5 pm, but conditions could allow for a light shower overnight, but overall, expect to be dry. Clouds continue for Tuesday as ample low level moisture exist, but we will be dry. By Wednesday, expect clouds to clear out and for us to the see sun. In addition to clouds and precip, the low brings in air from the north which will allow highs and lows for this time of year to be cooler than normal. We can see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s with overnight lows hovering near 60. Enjoy the cooler weather while it last because this is not quite what is expected for August in Missouri. 
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  12:56 p.m., August 20, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The main attention for the forecast turns to the well devloped occluded low in south-central Iowa. This low is what brought the .23" of rain overnight to the region. The cold front passage will greatly affect our weather as we remain in a northerly flow for the forecast period. GFS and HRRR indicate the potential for wrap around moisture of the occluded system from 20 UTC to 23 UTC being the main time frame. Ample moisture  and weak vertical velocity will allow for development but it will remain scattered. Overnight has the potential for very isolated showers in the region, but due to the isolated nature, have gone with the drier forecast. The NW flow remains as a 1020 mb high pressure moves over the central CONUS. This will give us cooler than average temperatures for the forecast period. RH still remains high on Tuesday so expect stratus clouds all day. The atmosphere dries out on Wednesday as the high assumes control. Temperatures still remain cool for Wednesday. 

Friday, August 17, 2018

Today - Partly sunny.  High:  84-88.

Tonight - Partly moony. Low:  66-70.

Saturday -  Mostly Sunny High: 86-90.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  66-70.

Sunday - Mostly sunny then chance late afternoon thunderstorms.  High: 86-90.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: Expect calm weather for the next few days after the passage of the cold front early this morning. This cold front will continue to filter some slighter cooler air in for Friday as temperatures are in the mid 80s for the region which is a relief compared to the high of 93 F we saw yesterday. Moisture will remain in the atmosphere allowing for a mix of sun and clouds today. The rain that fell will also allow for patchy fog overnight, mainly in low lying regions. Fog will quickly burn off however as the sun comes and we reach the upper 80s again. Sunday will also be sunny but afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible as another weather feature brings in a wet evening. The start of the semester looks a bit damp.
Forecaster:  Hirsc
Issued:  10:38 a.m., August 17, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) The NAM was used for this forecast as the 06Z run more accurately depicted the current state of the atmosphere and what is expected over the remaining morning hours. Temperatures have been tempered down slightly to reflect the CAA after FROPA last night. While they still will be near average for this time of year, NW flow will bring some slightly cooler air. Low level moisture (850-700 mb) still exists in the atmosphere allowing for clouds and sun throughout the day. Winds overnight will be at or below 5 kts allowing for patchy fog to occur moisture evaporates from the rain on Thursday night bring dewpoints up to the temperature. Saturday has zonal flow and most of the moisture move out so sunny and seasonal temperatures will return. The pleasant weather continues for Sunday as a 500 mb disturbance brings more rain into the area. The best time for rain development will be after 21 UTC on Sunday as >80% RH and -5 mb/s values of omega will be just to our west. The associated surface front will serve as a point for storm initiation. The rain looks to be a bit of a soaker for the region and is something forecasters need to keep an eye on. 

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Today - Partly sunny.  High:  88-92.

Tonight - Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered thunderstorms developing after sunset. Low:  68-72.

Friday - Cloudy in the morning with scattered rain showers, becoming partly sunny in throughout the day   High: 86-90.

Friday Night - Partly cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Saturday - Mostly sunny.  High: 86-90.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: The active weather continues as rain showers appear likely overnight. Thursday will be hot and sticky as temperatures get into the upper 80s and low 90s with high humidity. Heat indices will get into the mid and upper 90s around the region. This environment, along with a weak cold front, will set the stage for evening showers, mainly after the 7 pm with the most likely timing for rain to be between 10 pm and 2 am. Showers could linger on Friday until noon as we feel some remaining effects of the frontal passage. This will be scattered and areas will slowly clearly out as we transition to a partly sunny afternoon. The start of the weekend looks to be a great way to welcome students back as temperatures hover around normal for this time of year and the sun shines bright on their eager faces as they return to school.
Forecaster:  Hirsch and Market
Issued:  12:29 p.m., August 15, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A H5 disturbance located over eastern Nebraska is collocated with the surface low and cold front over this portion of the country. This disturbance will push eastward giving KCOU rain overnight. There is plenty of moisture  as dew points will be in the 70s and this coupled with PWATs in excess of 1.5" give confidence that the expected FROPA will bring rain. Have worked with a blend of the GFS and SREF. Both models agree that 02Z to 07Z are the most likely times for rain to occur with 1/4" to 3/4" possible. HRRR also agrees with this timing. Most of this appears stratiform due to time and lack of forcing, but CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg and mid-level shear of 20-30 kts indicate a potential for isolated wind and hail reaching severe criteria. SPC has placed a slight region just to the west of KCOU and covers the SW portion of the state. Severe weather could carry over but will be isolated at best and once daytime heating is gone, will really diminish chances. Models keep isolated showers through 18Z Friday and expect isolated showers through then. Once the front moves through, clouds will slowly clear. A zonal flow sets up over the day on Saturday bringing calm conditions to the area for the start of the weekend.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Today - Mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers .  High:  78-82.

Tonight - Cloudy with cleaning late overnight. Low:  68-72. 

Thursday - Morning fog, than partly sunny.  High: 86-90.

Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low:  68-72.

Friday - Cloudy with morning rain and afternoon thunderstorms.  High: 84-88.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion:Rain continues to be in the forecast but there we do get a day of reprieve. For Wednesday, the clouds will see some occasional breaks which will allow for daytime heating for afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Once the sun goes away however, we will remain dry overnight and clouds will move out allowing for a somewhat sunnier Thursday. Due to the moisture from the rain and lack of wind overnight, Thursday morning could have some fog, especially in low lying area. Thursday will be dry as we are between systems. The next one will approach from the west on Friday morning where a surface cold front will bring rain in the morning out ahead of the front with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Forecaster:  Hirsch  
Issued:  11:53 a.m., August 15, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The surface low that has been the feature of the forecast for both yesterday and today has continue to the progress and sits on the MO/IA border and will continue to push off to our west throughout the day and overnight. While showers existed in the morning, there looks to be a bit of dryness during the middle of the day with which could allow for some cloud breaks allowing for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. HRRR shows this potential after 20Z with precip leaving the area by 00Z. Overnight, the clouds will persist but slowly clear out as winds remain calm. Combined with the moisture on the ground, fog looks likely, especially in low lying regions as dewpoints will remain high as little mixing is expected to occur. Moisture remains throughout the column to 500 mb allowing for cloud coverage during the day on Thursday, but drying should occur through this depth allowing for a mix of sun and clouds. Another short wave will impact the area on Friday which looks to bring more rain. GFS shows morning showers and evening thunderstorms with CAPE between 1500-1900 J/kg during the afternoon hours. With little shear, directional or speed, there is little support for severe weather other than the cold front associated with the low. QPF from the GFS and SREF indicate less than a .25" while areas further SE of COU will receive the bulk of the moisture.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Today - Cloudy, rainy, and chance for afternoon thunderstorms .  High:  76-80.

Tonight - Cloudy, rainy, and localized thunderstorms. Low:  68-72. 

Wednesday - Cloudy, rainy, and thunderstorms .  High: 78-82.

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with some lingering showers. Low:  68-72.

Thursday - Partly Sunny.  High: 84-88.

Thanks to for the icons! 

Discussion: An active weather pattern looks to set up for the week, but for now, both today and tomorrow look to bring much needed rain to the area. For today, at the time of the issuance of the this forecast, rain has already moved into the area. For most of the morning, light rain should persist with a dry period during the lunch hour until mid-afternoon, when showers should ramp. Overnight, conditions are favorable for a longer period of rain with thunderstorms as well. Rain will continue into Wednesday with the heaviest rain being in the afternoon. Clouds will persist for these days limiting temperatures across the region to slightly below to right at normal. Overall, we can expect over an inch when the rain has finally stopped. Once this weather clears out, the sun flicker in and out of clouds all day Thursday bringing temperatures to the middle 80s across the region.
Forecaster:  Hirsch  
Issued:  12:14 p.m., August 14, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Rain has set across the region but models indicate that the heaviest rain looks to be in southern MO. SREF and NAM indicate that by the end of the event, we can expect 1-1.5 inches of rain across the region. The current weather system is associated with a surface low in SE Kansas. A stationary front sits across MO and drapes from Chillcothe to KLSX onward. This will continue to push north and transition into a warm front. The low will move NE and clip the upper portions of the state putting most of MO into the warm sector for the next few days. Most of Tuesday afternoon looks to be dry, but due to day time heating, some showers could trigger. Most of the rain is expected overnight as we look to be on the fringes of an MCS that will form. The LLJ has an apex over southern MO making it the prime area for development. Moisture is not an issue over the next few days as winds out of the south provide a rich environment for moisture with PWATs over 2 inches. Wednesday looks to have periods of rain with thunderstorms in the afternoon associated with a cold front passage. This will be the trigger area for heavy rain. Severe potential is limited as shear is relatively weak and the cooler temperatures will dampen lapse rates.