Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Tuesday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 64-68

Wednesday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 46-50

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 64-68

Friday - Cloudy, Possible Rain. High: 62-66

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The sunny skies that dominated the afternoon will continue into the evening and overnight which will gives us clear skies. The first half of tomorrow looks to be much of the same. Tomorrow night there will be an increase in cloud cover. This will continue into Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for rainfall overnight into Friday. Temperatures will be seasonal for the rest of today with a slight warm up expected for tomorrow and Thursday and a slight cool off back to average for Friday.


Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00PM: March 31,2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Model preference for this forecast is a non-NAM blend. GFS was used for this forecast due to it matching best with current observations. SREF plumes were used for temperatures. 

The main focus for this forecast period is the slight warm up for the middle of the week and the last week rain potential.

250mb winds shows the area currently in a zonal pattern throughout the rest of the day. Starting tomorrow, there will be a weak ridging pattern that occurs mid to late morning. This will be the driver for a slight warm up for the midweek. Mid-level and low-level winds also show a weak ridging pattern developing for mid to late morning for tomorrow. The low level ridging is key because that is the main driver for bringing in the southerly winds ushering in WAA. This ridging pattern will warm temperatures up to the upper 60's for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Cloud cover looks to return for late tomorrow evening, along with that, the 500mb vorticity indicates some mid level circulation. 700mb RH and UVM values will also increase during this same time. The main ingredient is the 850mb low level winds. They also will be increasing during this time which will be the driver for the low lever moisture transport. Right now it is too far out to tell how much rain will fall or if any thunderstorms come out of it. Refer to later shifts for more details on this. 

Monday, March 30, 2020

Monday - Sunny. High: 64-68

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 44-48

Tuesday - Decreasing clouds. High: 56-60

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64

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Today, we are mainly influenced by high pressure set up right over the Midwest. 
This will contribute to light winds and sunny skies for the day. As we move into the evening, 
that high will move towards the east coast while another low pressure system begins to develop 
over the southwest region. The low will help transport some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico 
resulting in increasing clouds tonight. The low tracks well to our south, so no precipitation 
is expected from this system. Tuesday, we begin to see the winds shift from easterly to 
northerly. This will dry us out and lead to clear skies again on Tuesday night. However, 
the northerly winds will keep temps in the 50s for the day. Wednesday, we continue to remain 
clear and temps begin to warm back up into the 60s.

Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: March 30, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used for this forecast as suggested by the WPC. The 06Z GFS,
GEFS, NAM, and SREF were all utilized. As of 09Z this morning, Missouri sits in a fairly 
zonal region aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern Great Plains. A high
pressure system is located just to our northwest, funnelling in northerly winds. 
Winds will not be as strong as they were yesterday due to the relatively weak surface
ridge over the state. This evening, the focus turns to a cyclone that continues 
to track more to the south with every new model run. This low pressure system 
has sufficient low-level forcing, moisture, and instability near the MO-AR border, but near 
Columbia, models suggest we will be moisture-starved. At 250mb tonight, we will be in the
left exit region of the jet, suggesting divergence aloft. Models suggest vorticity values at 
500mb will be sufficient enough for precipitation, but RH values at 700mb put us right at
the sharp gradient of RH suggesting that this system will not have enough moisture to 
support rainfall tonight in Columbia. Soundings at 09Z tonight show veering winds with
height indicative of WAA, but that will not be enough for rainfall as all of the moisture 
stays to our south. 

Although we expect little to no precipitation tonight, soundings suggest mid-level clouds between 700-500mb will move into Mid-Missouri ahead of this system. Tomorrow’s big story will be cloud cover decreasing with northerly winds keeping the temperature lower than today’s will be. Cloud cover will decrease through Tuesday, allowing heat to escape the lower troposphere tomorrow night and temperatures will be significantly cooler. Winds will shift out of the south as we move into Wednesday as the anticyclone moves to our east. A larger ridge sets up across the central CONUS, allowing for more calm weather to dominate our fore

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Possible showers and Thunderstorms p.m. Low: 54-58

Thursday - Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. High: 72-76

Thursday Night - Clearing skies. Low: 34-38

Friday- Mostly cloudy. High: 40-44

 Saturday - Mostly sunny High: 42-46

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Clouds will stick around overnight, with showers and thunderstorms possible towards daybreak. For Thursday morning, mid-Missouri will see its greatest chance of widespread rain in the early morning hours, primarily between 7 am and 10 am. These showers and storms will be caused by an approaching warm front, which will usher in lots of moisture, lift, and instability. There is the potential for strong storms Thursday morning, though the threat will be primarily confined to heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. During the day on Thursday, strong southerly winds behind the warm front will drive temperatures upward. The second round of thunderstorms is possible Thursday evening, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible with any storms that do form. Early Friday morning, a low-pressure system and its associated cold front will push its way into central Missouri. Temperatures will not be as warm for Friday and Saturday, but clouds will start to move out of the area Friday night, leading to sunny skies on Saturday. The main concern there is temperatures, with readings 5-10 degrees below freezing likely early Saturday morning. 

Forecasters: Vanderpool,Pauley,Munley,Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: March 16, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Model diagnostics from the WPC recommends the 12z GFS for deterministic guidance in the short-range. Therefore, we have gone with that for the majority of our guidance. However, the HRRR was also used for the prognosis of the early-morning wave of convection anticipated on Thursday. 09z SREF and 12z GEFS were also used to provide temperature ranges, as well as to provide an idea as to the confidence of our forecast. This was especially pertinent when looking at CAPE and shear for tomorrow’s dynamic setup. 

Currently, a rather active pattern exists across the CONUS. Working from the top down, the jet stream exists across an extremely broad area of the nation, with a large positively-tilted trough noted in the west at 250-mb (axis roughly from western Montana to central California) and a large ridge at that same level parked over the southeastern United States. At 500-mb, two closed geopotential height contours were noted directly beneath the 250-mb trough, with the vorticity maximum associated with the southernmost closed contour over far western Arizona. Extremely broad moisture return at 700-mb and 850-mb was occurring out ahead of the approaching trough, which will help to set the stage for widespread showers and storms beginning shortly before daybreak tomorrow. 

Tomorrow, things will start off interesting. Warm, humid air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico in the lower levels of the atmosphere will drive a warm front into central Missouri. With short-range hi-res models and SREF plumes showing the potential for over 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, it looks like elevated thunderstorms will be very likely in mid-Missouri as this warm front provides lift and moisture convergence. The best time for these storms to occur looks to be between 11z and 15z. Shear profiles don’t look overly impressive for that round, though elevated CAPE and lots of moisture influx could provide for heavy rain, marginally-severe hail, and brief gusty wind threat. 

Following tomorrow’s morning round of thunderstorms, the warm front will push northward into Iowa and we will lose forcing and moisture convergence. This will place mid-Missouri firmly in the warm sector of a rapidly-approaching surface low. 12z GFS and 09z SREF runs both agree that 0-6 km shear behind this warm front will be on the order of 60 to 75 knots. Low-level helicity values also look very impressive, on the order of 150 - 300 m^2 / s^2. Overall, this is shaping up to be a very dynamic storm system. The main limiting factors for severe storms will be A) the lack of a focused forcing mechanism when CAPE and shear are maximized, B) lack of sunshine, which would cut down on instability, and C) the fact that shear will be largely unidirectional. Thus, IF convection fires again tomorrow afternoon and evening in mid-Missouri, the main threats will be gusty winds, large hail, and a brief tornado. Most short-range convection-allowing models seem to indicate that the favored region for convective initiation will be in far northeastern KS, northwestern MO, and southern IA, where forcing will be strongest. Thus, evening storms in mid-Missouri will probably be fairly scattered in nature (as they move in from the west) and most likely to occur between ~5 pm and ~10 pm. Storm motion will be very quick, which should cut down on the flash-flooding threat for the afternoon and evening hours. Overall, severe weather is possible, though storm coverage for the evening will likely be quite limited. Again, this will be tied into the overall amount of sunshine we receive, as well as if storms that form to our west and north can make it as far east as Columbia. 

Thursday night and early Friday morning, a powerful cold front will swing through mid-Missouri. The most likely timing for this frontal passage will be between 09z and 12z Friday morning. A much colder air mass will be ushered in behind this front, with temperatures Friday likely to reach only the lower 40s. Residual cloud cover will serve to keep us even chillier. This cold surge will reach its peak early Saturday morning when lows will likely drop 5-10 degrees below freezing. This may damage any sensitive vegetation currently outside. 

Saturday, the overall flow will return to a more zonal pattern. The strong low pressure set to affect the Midwest Thursday evening will have moved all the way to New York, leaving central Missouri in a ridge-like pattern as the center of the high-pressure system behind the cold front builds into the area. Winds will continue to flow in from the north, keeping us in cooler temperatures, though the air mass behind the front will likely modify a bit due to plentiful sunshine. GFS model guidance indicates that the atmosphere overhead will remain relatively dry, with no precipitation and fewer clouds. 

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Tuesday Night- Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 44-48

Wednesday- AM Rain/PM Clouds. High: 64-68

Wednesday Night- Cloudy, Rain. Low: 58-62

Thursday- Cloudy, Rain and Potential Thunderstorms. High: 68-72

Friday- AM Clouds/PM Sun, Colder. High: 42-46

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The overcast skies that started out today will continue overnight. Along with the cloud cover, the potential for rain and warmer temperatures ramp up for the middle of the week. This is due to a high pressure over the southeast bringing winds from the south bringing in those warmer temperatures and moisture needed for this midweek rain. A cold front will start to make its way into the area late Thursday night. This cold front will bring along with it the potential for some thunderstorms. Once the cold front passes early Friday morning, skies will begin to clear, and temperatures will be much colder than earlier in the week.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: March 17, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC recommends a blend of 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF. Overall, 12z GFS was used for this forecast. SREF Plumes were used for rainfall totals.

The main topic of concern for this forecast is the warm up in the middle of the week, the potential for midweek rainfall, how much rain will fall and lastly the potential for thunderstorm development Thursday night. 

Winds at the 250mb level indicate a zonal flow that is transitioning into more of a meridional flow. This is due to two anticyclones; one over the state of Nevada, and the other one over the southeast CONUS. The one of more concern is the one over the southeast. The reason for this is due to Columbia’s location being on the northwest side, the winds on the backside are coming from the south driving potential moisture from the gulf. There is also a lack of atmospheric circulation at the 500mb level until tomorrow morning when there is a shortwave that ejects out of the longwave located over the desert southwest and makes its way into Missouri late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon. This ejecting shortwave will increase the potential for rainfall overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. This is due to this shortwave increasing 700mb RH values to rear 100% and UVM values to between 18-20ubar/s. This shortwave will be short-lived as the rain potential will decrease heading into mid-morning. Late morning/early afternoon however, the rain potential looks to rebound The key factor to the rain potential rebound is the 700mb RH and UVM. Currently, the RH values look relatively low along with the UVM remaining low overnight. Late tomorrow morning, those two values will begin to increase with the RH increasing to near 100% and the UVM reaching values of 15ubar/s. 850mb winds will also play a role. There doesn’t look to be much in the way of low-level wind support until late tomorrow morning as well. This low-level support along with the 700mb RH and UVM values increasing indicates the start of the rain to be late tomorrow morning. This rain looks to last all the way into late Thursday evening. This is when a potential for thunderstorm development comes into the picture. This is because there will be a cold frontal passage late Thursday night into Friday morning which will drive the CAPE values up to 1200 J/kg giving us the lift needed for the aforementioned thunderstorm development. When all said and done, total rainfall looks to be on the lines of 0.75 to 1in. 

Temperatures will also be affected due to the anticyclonic flow over the southeast CONUS driving warm southerly air into the area for tomorrow all the way into Thursday afternoon. Heading into late Thursday night, there will be a wind shift which will cause a backing wind profile to develop causing high temperatures  from Thursday into Friday to drop nearly 30 degrees. Along with the colder temperatures, there will be clearing skies post frontal passage.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Tuesday - Clouds remain. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Cloudy. Rain likely all day. High: 66-70

Thursday - Cloudy Rain likely with possible thunderstorms. High: 66-70

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Columbia, will remain cloudy all week, with rain forecast on Tuesday through Thursday. While winds will be light, temperatures will also get in the upper 30's to low 40's. After midnight on Tuesday rain will begin and continue in through Thursday. 
Forecasters: Owens, Travis, Heaven
Issued:  5:00pm: March 16, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 Rain has moved downstream and to the East of the Columbia, MO region, however due to the increased moisture and cold air advection behind the front, cloud cover will remain. With this temperatures will also be a little bit colder behind the front, however there will be IR heat generated by both the clouds and ground, so temperatures will go below freezing.

The cloud cover will continue to remain on Tuesday, for the same reasons stated above. The surface level pressure gradient will also remain loose, so winds will also remain light.

This brings us into the Wednesday time frame and the main forecast challenge: precip. The primary cause of this mostly is stratiform precip. The overall pattern being shown by the SREF is not showing to much. The current run is not showing any major short wave troughs, and the overall longwave pattern is a transition into a meridional pattern. Winds at 500 mb throughout the day are around 50kts. Also at the 500-mb level there is some vorticity over Missouri with values in the 8-12 per second range. On the 700-mb level, winds are primarily from the SSW with some Moist Air Advection. At the 850-mb level, there is continual MAA and WAA with winds remaining from the SSW.  In addition, NAM Skew-Ts are showing no significant indices. As such the primary producer of rain will be mostly stratiform in nature. On Thursday conditions from Wednesday will continue to present, so showery rain will continue. Whilst there is some instability this is something future forecaster will have to watch during the later forecast periods.

Monday - Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning, dry by the afternoon. High: 44-48

Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Cloudy. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night - Cloudy. Rain possible after midnight. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Cloudy. Rain likely all day. High: 64-68

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We’re shaping up for a gloomy start to the week in Columbia. As of when this forecast was issued, almost 0.2” of rain has fallen on Mizzou’s campus. This will be spotty through the rest of the morning, and completely end by noon today. Tuesday looks dry, but still cloudy through the day. Temperatures should warm a bit into tomorrow as winds begin to shift out of the south. However, southerly winds will also funnel in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico allowing for another rain chance overnight on Tuesday and sticking with us through Wednesday. Those winds will also allow for temperatures to soar into the upper 60s on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: March 16, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main focus for today’s forecast will be the upcoming precipitation event on Wednesday. For this forecast we used the NAM, GFS, GEFS, SREF, and the HRRR as guided by a general model blend by the WPC. 

As of right now, rain is very spotty in Columbia with a total of 0.16” recorded at Sanborn field. Most models agree that rain will dwindle off by the early afternoon as omega values diminish. However, we remain saturated from the surface to about 650mb so low level clouds will persist through the rest of the day. With light rain ending around 18Z, we expect total precip values to be around 0.25”.
Tomorrow, we are situated in the right entrance region of the polar jet at 250mb. This would suggest divergence aloft and convergence at the surface. Soundings show that Columbia will be saturated close to the surface indicating more low level clouds through Tuesday. Easterly winds begin to shift out of the south as a cyclone begins to develop in the desert southwest. This wind shift will help warm things up both Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Wednesday is when things really start to pick up. At 850mb, a strong low level jet aides warm air advection and upglide. This also supplies tons of moisture from the gulf. All these ingredients aid us to forecast a significant rain event all day Wednesday. CAPE values from the GEFS range in the mid 600s in J/kg while the SREF shows much higher CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Models don’t agree as much when it comes to the amount of WAA we will receive, as high temps vary from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. Nevertheless, dew point temperatures stay above 55°F suggesting that convection can be supported. Future forecasters should monitor this event closely as models tend to be in disagreement at this time.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Wednesday Night -Clear with passing clouds. Low: 44-48

Thursday - Rain with possible thunderstorms. High: 62-66


Thursday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 34-38 

Friday - Partly sunny with clouds increasing. High: 48-52

Saturday - Rain. High: 36-40

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Tonight, temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 40s. Skies should remain mostly clear, as there will be little moisture in the atmosphere. Tomorrow, an approaching storm system (along with a cold front) will bring a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms to mid-Missouri. This cold front will usher in colder temperatures for Thursday night and Friday. On Saturday, another storm system will move into the central plains, bringing much colder temperatures and widespread soaking rain.
Forecasters: Vanderpool, Pauley, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: March 11, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostics advocate a 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC blend. The GFS seems to have a good handle on the current setup over the CONUS, so this shift has elected to use the 12z GFS run for deterministic guidance. For ensemble guidance, the SREF, HREF, and GEFS were all used.

18z surface analysis indicates a very weak surface high over NE Missouri. This high has made for dry conditions and mostly calm winds this afternoon in and near Columbia, so insolation has been the main reason for this afternoon's rapid warm-up. Upper air analysis at 250-mb reveals a fairly large ridge centered over the southern Rockies, which is progged to move east over the next 24 hours. 500-mb heights and vorticity do not reveal this ridge as clearly, with a mostly zonal pattern over the central CONUS at that level. Further down, moisture looks fairly limited at 700-mb and 850-mb, and with no lift in the region until tomorrow, conditions will stay dry over the next 12-18 hours.

Tonight, calm winds near the surface will continue. GFS soundings and ensemble model guidance indicate that skies will remain mostly clear. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s overnight, almost entirely courtesy of radiational cooling.

Tomorrow, things will get more interesting. A surface low will eject out of southeastern Colorado beneath a broad 500-mb trough. The low will cause a cold front to pass through central Missouri, with FROPA most likely between 18z and 21z tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures out ahead of this low will warm into the low to mid 60s with fairly stout warm air advection. Moisture returns should be sufficient for overcast skies and afternoon showers (and a few thunderstorms) particularly near and along the approaching cold front. The SREF pegs most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values near 500 J/Kg, but GEFS, GFS, NAM, and HREF model guidance are all hovering between 0 and 100 J/Kg. Thus, instability may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms, but the threat of severe weather is questionable. Never the less, the SPC has outlined areas just south of Columbia in a marginal severe weather risk, primarily for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. This should be watched out for, especially given more than sufficient shear and our proximity to the center of the low.

For Friday, conditions will be calmer. Then, another low will eject into the Midwest on Saturday, spreading broad moisture and lift out over Missouri. We will be firmly in the cold sector of this low, leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (and perhaps near 40). Thus, a cold rain is expected for Saturday, with snow possible a few counties to our north.