Monday - Sunny. High: 64-68
Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 44-48
Tuesday - Decreasing clouds. High: 56-60
Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 34-38
Wednesday - Sunny. High: 60-64
Discussion:
Today, we are mainly influenced by high pressure set up right over the Midwest.
This will contribute to light winds and sunny skies for the day. As we move into the evening,
that high will move towards the east coast while another low pressure system begins to develop
over the southwest region. The low will help transport some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in increasing clouds tonight. The low tracks well to our south, so no precipitation
is expected from this system. Tuesday, we begin to see the winds shift from easterly to
northerly. This will dry us out and lead to clear skies again on Tuesday night. However,
the northerly winds will keep temps in the 50s for the day. Wednesday, we continue to remain
clear and temps begin to warm back up into the 60s.
This will contribute to light winds and sunny skies for the day. As we move into the evening,
that high will move towards the east coast while another low pressure system begins to develop
over the southwest region. The low will help transport some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in increasing clouds tonight. The low tracks well to our south, so no precipitation
is expected from this system. Tuesday, we begin to see the winds shift from easterly to
northerly. This will dry us out and lead to clear skies again on Tuesday night. However,
the northerly winds will keep temps in the 50s for the day. Wednesday, we continue to remain
clear and temps begin to warm back up into the 60s.
===========================================================================================
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued: 10:00am: March 30, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used for this forecast as suggested by the WPC. The 06Z GFS,
GEFS, NAM, and SREF were all utilized. As of 09Z this morning, Missouri sits in a fairly
zonal region aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern Great Plains. A high
pressure system is located just to our northwest, funnelling in northerly winds.
Winds will not be as strong as they were yesterday due to the relatively weak surface
ridge over the state. This evening, the focus turns to a cyclone that continues
to track more to the south with every new model run. This low pressure system
has sufficient low-level forcing, moisture, and instability near the MO-AR border, but near
Columbia, models suggest we will be moisture-starved. At 250mb tonight, we will be in the
left exit region of the jet, suggesting divergence aloft. Models suggest vorticity values at
500mb will be sufficient enough for precipitation, but RH values at 700mb put us right at
the sharp gradient of RH suggesting that this system will not have enough moisture to
support rainfall tonight in Columbia. Soundings at 09Z tonight show veering winds with
height indicative of WAA, but that will not be enough for rainfall as all of the moisture
stays to our south.
GEFS, NAM, and SREF were all utilized. As of 09Z this morning, Missouri sits in a fairly
zonal region aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern Great Plains. A high
pressure system is located just to our northwest, funnelling in northerly winds.
Winds will not be as strong as they were yesterday due to the relatively weak surface
ridge over the state. This evening, the focus turns to a cyclone that continues
to track more to the south with every new model run. This low pressure system
has sufficient low-level forcing, moisture, and instability near the MO-AR border, but near
Columbia, models suggest we will be moisture-starved. At 250mb tonight, we will be in the
left exit region of the jet, suggesting divergence aloft. Models suggest vorticity values at
500mb will be sufficient enough for precipitation, but RH values at 700mb put us right at
the sharp gradient of RH suggesting that this system will not have enough moisture to
support rainfall tonight in Columbia. Soundings at 09Z tonight show veering winds with
height indicative of WAA, but that will not be enough for rainfall as all of the moisture
stays to our south.
Although we expect little to no precipitation tonight, soundings suggest mid-level clouds between 700-500mb will move into Mid-Missouri ahead of this system. Tomorrow’s big story will be cloud cover decreasing with northerly winds keeping the temperature lower than today’s will be. Cloud cover will decrease through Tuesday, allowing heat to escape the lower troposphere tomorrow night and temperatures will be significantly cooler. Winds will shift out of the south as we move into Wednesday as the anticyclone moves to our east. A larger ridge sets up across the central CONUS, allowing for more calm weather to dominate our fore
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