Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 50-54

Saturday - Sunny and warm. High: 74-78

 

Saturday Night - Increasing clouds by daybreak. Low: 56-60

Sunday - Cloudy with rain in the afternoon. Thunder possible High: 68-72

 

 

Monday - Partly Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe. High:78-82

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 
Beautiful weather has set up over mid-Missouri thanks to a strong surface high-pressure system. High pressure will stick around Friday night into Saturday keeping conditions much like Friday’s. Clouds will begin to build in overnight Saturday night ahead of an upper-level low-pressure system that has peaked our interest. This system will bring rain with it beginning around noon on Sunday. Some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Rain will stick around into Sunday night eventually tapering off by Monday morning. Early signs are pointing in the direction of severe weather Monday out ahead of a strong cold front set to blow through the region by 7pm Monday. If Monday morning rain sticks around longer than anticipated, possibility for severe weather will be hindered. If rain and clouds clear out when expected, the atmosphere will have plenty of time to prime itself for strong storms. This weekend is one to stay weather aware of as things will likely change by Monday. 

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Travis, Bongard

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 30 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 
The NAM was utilized for this forecast period due to the better placement of the low to the southwest than that of the GFS which places it too far west over northern Mexico. The biggest challenge of the period was dealing with convective potential Sunday night and Monday.
 

Northwest flow Friday afternoon aloft places the forecast area in the downstream of a large trough over the Great Lakes and New England portions of the CONUS with a ridge to the west over the Northern Rockies. Upper level charts also reveal the presence of a cut off system to the southwest over west Texas that will meander slowly eastward this weekend. This will be the catalyst for precipitation and potential convection Sunday night and Monday. Through the weekend the ridge to the northwest will steer zonal flow into the Midwest as a trough begins to deepen out west over the Intermountain West. The system to the southwest of the region will slowly trek northeast and begin to get absorbed by Sunday afternoon into the flow to its north.

 
500-mb level vorticity is scarce to find Friday afternoon through Sunday morning in the region. The majority of energy lies to the southwest tied up with the cutoff low over the southern Plains and Texas. Some vorticity values creep into Missouri by 06Z Monday but the stronger vort values the system enjoyed while residing to the south are less apparent by the time the system arrives in the Midwest Monday.

Moisture values at 700 mb will stay to the south for the first half of the weekend. Sunday morning will see a rapid increase in moisture advection from the south bumping PWAT values on NAM model soundings up from 0.6 inches on Saturday to almost an inch better by Sunday at 18Z. The LLJ at 850 mb will be responsible for the slight increase in high temperatures Saturday afternoon but will wait to introduce more moisture into the region until Sunday morning. Timing of the start of precipitation looks to be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Model soundings also indicate the possibility of some convective activity Sunday night into Monday though the severe potential is low at that time.

Continued analysis of the model soundings through Monday at 21Z lends confidence that the potential for strong to severe convection exists during the day Monday. CAPE values will soar well above 1400 J/kg with the perfect amount of CIN (-25) in the morning to potentially cap activity until midday. Lifted and Total Totals point in the direction of possible severe potential beginning as soon as 17Z Monday. Also, the placement of the LLJ to the south puts the nose of the jet just to the southwest between Springfield and the Lake of the Ozarks by 15Z Monday. Currently, the SPC places a severe potential further south over northeastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas. Indications at this time are that the convective potential may expand further north through the weekend. 

Monday morning forecasters need to monitor this situation closely. Changes to the model will be important as well as Monday morning diagnostics of cloud cover and precipitation already occurring over Columbia. This will either help or hurt the convective potential Monday afternoon.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday - Clear. High: 70-74

 

Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52-56

 

Saturday - Sunny. High: 74-78

Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Low: 58-62

Sunday - Rain showers throughout the day with chances of isolated storms into the evening. High: 72-76

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 

 Warm and spring-like days are expecting on Friday and Saturday with the temperatures reaching the mid-70s. On Sunday rain is expect because of a low pressure system pushing through southern Missouri Sunday morning.

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Ozdas, Bongard

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 30 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

  For this forecast period the GFS model was used simply because we had difficulty producing NAM and RAP model charts in the lab.

At the 250-mb level a low pressure system will be coming out of the Panhandles and north Texas, influencing this regions forecast period by Sunday 06Z.Friday and Saturday our region will be under the influence of an upper level ridge. The low pressure system is positively tilted on Sunday, starting Sunday 09Z, this system will become a negatively tilted and reach southern Missouri by Sunday morning. 

At the 500-mb, the LPS will cause some circulations to impact southern and mid-Missouri between 06Z and 18Z Sunday. The vorticity values will decrease by late Sunday night.

At the 700-mb level, the RH over Missouri will be increasing starting from the north of Missouri Friday morning, and because this moisture will be heading to our region from the north, there will be slight temperature decreases as thickness contours suggest over Missouri.

At the 850-mb level, the wind is north northwesterly, becoming northerly due to the high pressure system passage to the south of Missouri it will shift to southwesterly. Missouri will be in the downglide of a trough.

At the surface, baroclinic environment will be developing, although the thickness gradient will tighten up. It will not the enhance the low level wind speeds because of the solenoid development. Late Sunday night Missouri will experience WAA. Southwesterly wind will be becoming southerly.

The GFS model soundings suggest the atmosphere is fairly stable on Friday and Saturday. The atmosphere will begin to saturate starting from Sunday at 06Z with not much UVM. On Sunday at 18Z, the GFS sounding is suggesting that weak convection can be supported. The precipitation will be affecting mid-Missouri on Sunday with around 0.30 inches accumulation.
 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 48-52

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 50-54

Saturday - Clear and windy. Becoming partly cloudy into the evening. High: 74-78

Sunday - Rain showers throughout the day with chances of isolated storms into the evening. High: 72-76

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 

Expect a warm and pleasant beginning to the weekend as a high pressure system moves into the Central Missouri area. Clear and sunny skies are expected for the majority of the weekend allowing temperatures to rise into the mid-70's. Hold onto your hats on Saturday though! Winds from the southwest are expected to reach up to 16mph in the afternoon. However, anticipate a gloomy Sunday as a low-pressure system approaches from the southwest bringing rain showers and a possibility of some isolated thunderstorms. Overall, Central Missouri will experience an enjoyable weekend. 

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Lamb, Cochran, Nixon, Travis

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 29 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

    The NAM40 was chosen today because of its superior tracking of the LPS centered on the southern border of New Mexico. GEFS and SREF plumes were referenced for temperature and soundings were used to aid in forecasting sky conditions. The main focus of this forecast will be the LPS over New Mexico and the associated trough.

    The 250-mb plots of heights and winds show a low pressure system sitting stationary on the border of New Mexico and Mexico until it starts to progress eastward Saturday morning. However, the associated trough reaches mid-Missouri on Thursday at 23Z. The trough facilitates divergence aloft that encompasses the majority of our state. As the trough advances, the NM low starts moving NE on Saturday night. It quickly approaches our area Sunday evening only to be absorbed into a long wave trough.

    A similar image can be seen on the 500-mb plots of height and vorticity. The trough at the 250-mb level passes earlier at this level. Associated circulations start to penetrate a majority Missouri until Thursday night. Rotations at this level aren't seen again until the LPS passes south of our area Sunday night.

    The plots of height, omega, and relative humidity on the 700mb level show the atmosphere continuing to dry out on Thursday night into Friday morning. We stay dry at this level until Saturday, when an influx of moisture from the north enters the forecast area. Peak saturation occurs on Sunday night as the LPS advances, allowing moisture advection to take place.

    The 850-mb plot of height, temperature, and wind show northerly winds dominating the area until a high-pressure system passes through. After its passage, winds will shift SW for the remainder of the weekend. Looking at the surface 1000-500mb thickness and MSLP plot, the high-pressure system is present for most of the forecast period promoting clear skies. On Sunday, a surface low pressure system is seen approaching Missouri.

    Lastly, soundings show sunny conditions until Saturday night when clouds quickly move into Columbia. By Sunday at 18Z, deep saturation paired with wind shear and upward motions allow rain showers and a possibility of scattered thunderstorms to occur.

    The next forecast period should continue to watch the LPS approaching our area on Sunday and the ensuing weather it brings.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday - Clouds clearing into the afternoon. High: 66-70

 

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 52-56

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 48-52

 

Saturday - Sunny, with some high clouds. High: 76-80

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 

A mild cold front moved through last night and brought more than an inch and a half of rain. For today, clouds will decrease, eventually leading to clear skies. For Friday, clear blue skies will allow for increased warming as temperatures rise into the mid- to upper-70s. Friday night, we will experience a large temperature swing back down to the mid 40s. For Saturday, some upper level moisture might bring in some high clouds, but it will still be a very nice day.

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Gasch, Ede, Pauley

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 29 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

This forecast was generated using the 06z run of the NAM.  Our main feature driving our weather over the next couple of days is a frontal boundary that has drifted off to our south overnight on Wednesday. 

 

At the 250-mb level we remain under the influence of a ridge on Thursday morning.  This ridge has our upper level flow directed out of the southwest.  Currently, there is a jet streak situated over much of the United States with the core of the jet located over the Great Lakes region.  Its location places Missouri near the right entrance region of the jet.  While divergence can be expected for this quadrant of the jet streak, the bulk of the divergence is to our south and east.  As the jet streak moves out of the area late Thursday afternoon, we can expect to see an area of slight divergence as a trough begins to replace the ridge, shifting our winds to a more WNW direction as another jet streak begins to move into our area from the north.

The line of circulation that went through our area overnight Wednesday has moved out of the area providing some respite to the rain.  However, more vorticity at the 500-mb level can be expected to be advected into Central MO on Thursday afternoon.  These values

(~25*105 s-1) should not be as high or as long lasting as those we saw overnight Wednesday, though.  Very slight amounts of vorticity can be seen over Missouri on Friday afternoon, but it should not be anything to cause concern.  

Our area as been drying out at the 700-mb level this Thursday morning.  This level will remain dry through Friday evening when we will receive an influx of moisture from our north.  This moisture will be delivered to our area by the arrival of the jet that will move through the upper Plains States. 

The 850-mb level is much of the same story.  We will continue to dry out over the course of the day on Thursday.  The dry conditions can be expected to stick around through the end of the forecast period.  The vertical motion that accompanied the rain overnight on Wednesday has also moved out of our area.  The winds at this level will be out of the north which will contribute to the drying trend that we will see over the next couple of days.

It will be a nice opportunity to finally enjoy some dry weather on the weekend which we haven't seen for some weeks.  Future forecasters should look at the progression of the low pressure system sitting over Texas as its movement could dictate the weather for later in the weekend. 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night- Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the night. Low: 58-62

Thursday - Morning clouds with showers and afternoon clearing. High: 66-70

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 52-56

 

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

Saturday - Sunny. High: 76-80

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

 

A stationary boundary that has been located to our north and west for the past couple days will finally decide to move across the area on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will move across Missouri ahead of the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning and are not expected to be of the severe variety. Rain amounts up to 1 inch and locally higher can be expected. As winds shift northerly after the frontal passage we can expect the skies to begin clearing out mid-late afternoon. Friday we find ourselves in a warming trend into the weekend with sunshine dominating the latter half of this forecast.

 

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Gasch, McGuire, Vanderpool

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 28 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

The 12Z NAM was primarily used in the creation of this forecast for the next few days.  Our main feature of note is a stationary boundary and associated low pressure system that is currently to our southwest located over the Four Corners region.  

As of Wednesday afternoon, our flow at the 250-mb level is more of a meridional pattern with our winds at this level southwesterly.  These winds, along with the ridge over the Eastern United States have contributed to our warmer weather over the past couple of days.  As Wednesday evening progresses, we will receive several waves of high values (> 1.5 * 106 s-1) of divergence at 250-mb.  This divergence corresponds, roughly, to the right entrance region of a jet streak which is sitting over much of the United States spanning from West Texas though the Great Lakes region.  The jet will remain over our area through most of Thursday when it will begin to migrate to the east.  After the jet leaves, we will find ourselves at the bottom of a trough.  Central Missouri will still see some areas of divergence, but nothing as extreme as Wednesday night should be expected on Friday.  By Saturday, our flow should become relatively zonal, though the low pressure system will stay parked over West Texas.

Over the course of Wednesday evening, we will see increasing values of vorticity at the 500-mb level originating from the low pressure system near the U.S.-Mexico border.  Vorticity maxima (> 3.0 * 10 6 s-1) should be found over Columbia from sundown through about midnight.  Another round of vorticity maxima can be expected to go through our area on Thursday morning.  Minor values of vorticity will plague the region throughout the day on Thursday.  One last significant circulation will go through the area on Friday around 01z.  The circulation will correspond with the end of the jet streak moving out of Central Missouri to the North East.  Once the 250-mb level jet moves out of the area, the 500-mb level will remain calm for the duration of Friday and Saturday.  The trough affecting our weather by that time will cause the winds to shift from a southwest direction on Wednesday afternoon to a northwest direction by Saturday.

At the 700-mb level, we will see values of omega up to -20 mircobars per second indicating UVM through the rest of Wednesday evening, and into the overnight hours of Wednesday.  A training line of pockets of vertical motion will stream through the state from southwest to northeast centering on Boone County for most of the night.  Gradually, this line will shift south and east toward the boot heel of Missouri.  However, we will remain saturated at this level through lunchtime on Thursday.  The 700-mb level will remain dry for the remainder of the forecast period.

The 850-mb flow from the low pressure system will cause tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to be advected into our area.  A low level jet will be present for most of the evening on Wednesday.  Along with the LLJ, there will be more significant vertical motion through Mid-Missouri and southward.  The 850-mb level will remain saturated though Thursday afternoon. This level will continue drying out over the course of the day on Friday. By Saturday night, however, we could see the moisture return to the area.  

At the surface, our winds will be out of the south for Wednesday night until a cold front passes through our area around midnight.  Solenoids can be seen on the 1000-500-mb thickness and MSLP plot.  The solenoids can be found ahead of the cold front with winds out of the south, signifying WAA. Behind the cold front winds will be out of the north, signifying CAA.  After the cold front moves through, a high pressure system will take its place by overnight Thursday into Friday.  

While there is plenty of instability in the atmosphere (CAPE values of over 1600 J/kg), any significant severe development is unexpected due to lack of necessary shear.  However, Central Missouri should expect very heavy rain and thunderstorms overnight with the potential of receiving 0.5” to 1” of rain overnight. 

 

Future forecasters should look for the progression of the low pressure system located over Texas. 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day. High: 70-74

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the night. Low: 58-62

Thursday - Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely through the morning tapering off in the afternoon. High: 66-70

 

 Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 56-60

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Grab your umbrellas as you head out the door today as rain chances will be with us throughout the rest of Wednesday through Thursday morning. We’re tracking the potential for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms that may be capable of producing gusty conditions with some small hail. Rainfall totals will be substantial reaching 1-2 inches. Behind this low pressure system that is stirring up these rain chances, things will be slightly cooler with highs falling into more seasonable temperatures by Friday. We’ll see plenty of sunshine to close the week.

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Baker, Est, Bongard

Issued: 9:00 AM CST 28 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 06Z NAM model run was used to create this forecast as it is handling the current system more accurately than the GFS has been. Current conditions at the time of forecast were best mirrored within the NAM guidance than within the GFS. Related skew-T outputs were used to determine the severity of storms throughout Wednesday. SREF plumes were also consulted in creating this forecast.

At the 250-mb level, a jet max is seen sitting over northern Missouri to kick off Wednesday morning. This jet max deepens over Iowa by 21Z Thursday afternoon. By 12Z Friday, there will be no significant jet streak over the forecast area.

500-mb outputs show significant vorticity at 15Z Wednesday until 18Z Thursday. Vorticity at this level suggests that active weather will be in the area, and this data is conducive with the idea of widespread rain and thunderstorms throughout this time frame. Vorticity exits the area almost completely by 09Z Friday.

The 700-mb guidance shows high relative humidity throughout the day and evening on Wednesday. Southwesterly flow is dragging in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and that moisture will help with mid-Missouri’s rain chances. At this level, the stalled out boundary that is stirring up these rain chances is very visible just to the south of the forecast area. RH values drop drastically by 21Z Thursday, suggesting that our rain event will end near or before that time.

At the 850-mb level, there is no defined LLJ over the forecast area, but the LLJ over Oklahoma is southerly which is helping drive the moisture and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. CAA can be expected on the back end of this system by 12Z Thursday. At 18Z Friday, winds will shift to become more easterly, as a low pressure system slides into western Missouri. This low pressure system will continue pushing eastward through Missouri until the end of the forecast period.

Surface level guidance shows that winds will begin Wednesday coming from the southwest but will shift throughout the day to become northerly by 15Z Thursday. These northerly winds will bring cooler temperatures to mid-Missouri for Thursday. By 15Z on Friday, those winds will shift to become more easterly as a surface level low pushes into western Missouri. On the back end of this low, winds will shift to become more southerly as we head toward the weekend.

Skew-T outputs show a lack of low level shear which helps nullify our tornado threat for today. That being said, CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg throughout the morning and afternoon Wednesday suggests that thunderstorms will be likely. Negative omega also indicates that hail could develop within these embedded thunderstorms. The main concern with this system will come from impressive rain accumulations over the next 36 hours. Southern portions of Missouri, where that boundary stalls out, could see 3”+ of accumulation. Luckily for us, our accumulations will likely be between 1-2” of rain. Flooding could be a problem, but we are not currently under any flooding advisories.


Future forecasters should monitor the intensity of storms for this afternoon plus the threat for flooding.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Sunny, Increasing clouds. Breezy. High: 82-86

Tuesday night- Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 62-66

Wednesday- Mostly cloudy. Rain likely with a possible thunderstorm. High: 68-72

Wednesday night- Mostly cloudy. Rain possible throughout the night. Low: 58-62

Thursday- Mostly cloudy, rain tapering off in morning hrs. High: 66-70

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Warm temperatures are going to dominate the area for today. If you have time today, get outside and enjoy them today as tomorrow will be a different story. Today winds are going to be breezy to start out the day, but not as breezy as yesterday. Sun will stick around for the most part of today, clouds will be expected to build as a low pressure system starts to push its way towards Missouri in the evening hours. Tonight there is a possibility for showers and thunderstorms. These storms could be strong at times. The possibility for them to be severe remains low, the main concern if these storms were to become severe is hail, but again this threat remains very low. Headed into Wednesday widespread rain will be likely. Flooding will be a major concern. Remember if you see a road flooded turn around, don't drown. This widespread rain can be heavy at times and will not exit the area until Thursday morning. Total precipitation by Thursday morning could be between 1-2 inches. This low pressure system will move through the area by Thursday morning, associated with a cold front, so temperatures won't be quite as warm as today. Once all the rain moves out we could have the possibility to see some sun by the evening hours on Thursday.

====================================================

 

Forecaster: Pauley

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 27 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was created by using a general model blend of the 06z GFS, 06z NAM, and the 09z RAP. 24 hours ago the NAM was showing a dry air bias. When looking and comparing the GFS to the RAP these two models are producing better timing as for when the bulk of the moisture is going to start moving into central Missouri. As the 12z NAM is processing, this time is being used to help forecast temperatures. This time of the NAM is grasping temperatures better than the other models.

Today, Missouri is still sitting under a pronounced ridging pattern. A deep trough is sitting over Nevada and starting to push eastward which will be affecting central Missouri’s weather in the coming days. Moisture and lift will slightly increase throughout the day giving the ingredients for clouds to start building. Winds will be coming out of the south, in the morning to the afternoon hours. Winds close to the surface are between 30-35kts creating breezy conditions for the first start of the day. When looking at 15z GFS sounding central Missouri is going to be experiencing veering winds which will create warm air advection and help spike temperatures up into the lower to middle 80’s. Headed into tonight as the trough continues to push eastward a low pressure system with a cold front will be associated with this trough. This low pressure system is going to give the possibility for showers and thunderstorms starting around 00z Wednesday. Humidity and lift will start to build around the 00z Wednesday hour. MUCAPE values around 00z are averaging around 2000-2500 J/Kg. This could make some of these storms strong to possibly severe. Some of these storms could possibly produce severe hail due to elevated lapse rates in the mid-level. The possibility for any of these storms to become severe remains low. Showers and possible thunderstorms will start to make its way through central Missouri by 04z Wednesday. 

Wednesday, The first round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move out of the area between 09z-12z Wednesday. Behind the first round of the showers and thunderstorms is another round of rain. This second round of rain will be more widespread, this rain will start to move in by 13z-15z and will stick around all the way into Thursday morning. As for severity, it is unlikely for the second round to produce anything severe. These storms could still be strong at times as MUCAPE values are 1000 J/Kg. Heavy rain can be expected, this is the main concern out of the forecast. The risk for flooding will be a concerning factor as the ground will already be saturated, the rain will stick around for 24 hours and can be heavy at times. By the time this rain event is expected to exit in the morning hours on Thursday, central Missouri could see between 1-2 inches total. Thursday morning is when the cold front passes through Missouri. By Thursday afternoon the bulk of the rain will be pushing southeast, giving the possibility to see some peaks of the Sun.