Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Conditions will remain on the cooler side through the end of this week courtesy of a cold front that has moved through. Rain chances will stay out of the forecast until late Friday when a low pressure system approaches the area. With plenty of sunshine until then, it will be a perfect stretch to get outside before that rain hits. Something to note, however, if you planted already, you may want to bring in those sensitive plants tonight as we're watching for the potential for overnight frost.
====================================================
The 06Z GFS was used to create this forecast. Both the NAM and the GFS were pretty similar in where they had low pressure systems placed, but the GFS handled the cold frontal passage a little better. The main focus for today's forecast will be the potential for frost overnight tonight.
Winds at the 250-mb level show westerly zonal flow with a jet max to our east. A shortwave ridge will enter the area at 00Z Friday, producing a slight wind shift. It's not expected that this wind shift will greatly impact conditions at the surface.
The 500-mb level shows zonal flow very similar to what was seen at the 250-mb level. The upper atmosphere is shown to be lacking vorticity at this level until 09Z Friday morning. This vorticity will arrive ahead of our next rain chances.
700-mb plots show that a low pressure system located over Wisconsin helps to nudge moisture to our south until Friday at 12Z. This lack of moisture will help keep skies clear until early Friday.
At the 850-mb level, northerly winds dominate during the forecast period courtesy of a cold front that moved through earlier this morning. Because of these winds, temperatures will be much cooler throughout the day today and into tonight. A lack of moisture near the surface and aloft will ultimately keep skies clear through the end of the week. The combination of radiative cooling along with northerly winds tonight will drop temperatures to a level conducive with frost development.
At the surface level, winds will stay calm through the end of the week. Ahead of the next weather maker, winds can be expected to shift from northwesterly at the surface to northeasterly by 18Z Friday.
GFS soundings for the forecast period were consulted to determine the likelihood of light rain showers during the day Friday ahead of this next system. These soundings suggested upper level saturation, but the presence of a low level dry layer indicates that it will be difficult for moisture to make it to the surface. The main rain event will begin late Friday.
Future forecasters should watch the next weather maker as it approaches the area.
No comments:
Post a Comment