Monday, April 5, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Mostly sunny. High: 78-80

Monday Night- 
Mostly clear. Low: 56-60

Mostly sunny. High: 78-80

Tuesday Night- 
Mostly cloudy, possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms. Low: 58-62

Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely. High: 68-72

 Thanks to for the icons!


As we head into Monday, Columbia will continue to experience warmer temperatures due to a southwesterly wind. The Southwesterly winds will also bring slight moisture into our viewing area allowing for some passing clouds. Tuesday’s temperatures will be similar to Mondays reaching the high 70’s to lower 80’s. Temperatures might get a tad warmer than Mondays, winds will be switching from the southwest to the south. We will have a better possibility to see more clouds on Tuesday as these southerly winds will bring in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday night there is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms due to a low pressure system moving into the Central Plains region. As we continue into Wednesday the low pressure system will move from the Central Plains into Missouri, increasing the possibility for showers and thunderstorms. Starting out Wednesday morning there will be a possibility to see scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. The highest possibility to see continuous rain will be after 12pm as a line of showers and possible thunderstorms will start to make its way through. This line of showers and possible thunderstorms will start to make its way out of the area by 8pm. At this time the possibility to see severe weather is unlikely, precipitation totals for the day will fall right around 0.25 of an inch. 


Forecaster: Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 5 April 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 This forecast was generated with the use of the 06z NAM model run. The current NAM model guidance outperforms the latest GFS model output thanks to its handling of the moisture return and timing of the current low pressure system situated in the Central Plains. The main focus for this forecast period will be showers and the possibility of storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Currently there is a slight ridging pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere in the midwest. As the trough builds in the northwestern United States, the ridging pattern will become more pronounced and amplified. This ridge pattern will produce fairly nice weather Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night the trough proceeds to push into the Central Plains region bringing with it moisture and a low pressure system. Closer to the surface, going into monday night winds are going to be switching from the southwest to the south. This will help create warm air advection as we will be experiencing veering winds. These southerly winds will help push up more moisture to the central Missouri area giving us increasing clouds throughout the day. Temperatures will have a steady warm up throughout the day, but with increasing clouds this could prevent temperatures to increase into the lower 80’s. 

Wednesday the upper level low will be located over eastern Kansas is going to bring the possibility of showers and thunderstorms for Missouri.The slight ridging pattern proceeds to build as the trough in the northwestern United States deepens.The low pressure system associated with the trough at 250-mb appears to be prominent 500-mb. The majority of circulation that is associated with this low pressure system is sitting at the center of the low. Headed down to 700-mb omega will start to increase into Tuesday night and become predominant into Wednesday. 850-mb south east of the low pressure system winds will start to increase to 55 knots. These stronger winds will mainly be located in Oklahoma and northern Kansas. As for central Missouri winds will increase between 35 to 40 knots. Down at the surface the low pressure system will be located over Kansas by 15z Wednesday. Ahead of this low pressure system will have all of the ingredients for rain and possible thunderstorms. The main threat for severe weather will stay west of central Missouri. MU CAPE values range anywhere between 800-1750 J/Kg. This can be a great indicator that some of these storms that push through could be strong to severe, yet the possibility for severe weather remains low for the central Missouri area. For Wednesday precipitation totals will range around 0.25 inches. 

Future forecasters should be keeping an eye on the threat for any possible severe weather as this system approaches. 

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