Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Cloudy skies. Rain beginning in the evening. Low: 44-48.

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain tapering off into the afternoon. High: 52-56.

Saturday Night- Cloudy. Low: 38-42. 

 

Sunday - Cloudy. Light rain possible during the day. High: 52-56.

Monday- Partly cloudy. High: 60-64.

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Discussion: 

A dreary weekend is in store for mid-Missouri with two shots of rain possible. A low-pressure system will slide to the south of the region Friday night bringing with it cloudy skies and rain beginning around 7pm. Lingering drizzle will struggle to taper off into Saturday. Cloudy skies and light rain/drizzle will continue into Saturday afternoon. Clouds stick around Saturday night and into Sunday where another shot at light rain from late morning into early afternoon is possible with a weaker system moving in from the northwest. Temperatures will not move much with highs staying close to the mid 50s range and lows hovering around the low 40s. Columbia will finally see partially clearing skies on Monday with temperatures climbing back into the comfortable 60s.

 

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Forecaster: Bongard, Travis

Issued: 5:00 PM CDT 16 April 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 12Z run of the GFS was utilized for this forecast period as it is more accurately placing the encroaching system to the west better than its NAM counterpart. GFS is also tracking temperatures better with a colder trend for the forecast period. The largest obstacle of this period will be timing and accumulation of rainfall Friday night through Saturday.

Persistent zonal flow aloft will reside over the Midwest through Monday afternoon. A jet streak draped from the Panhandles across SEC country to the Carolinas Friday afternoon will gradually erode to the east. Trough just to the northwest over the Central and Northern Plains will remain there through the period as well.

500-mb analysis reveals plenty of vorticity over the region Friday afternoon that will remain in place through Saturday and most of Sunday as the axis of a shortwave trough pushes across the state by 21Z Sunday.    

The NAM40 was selected for this forecasting shift because of it's accurate placement of the approaching low pressure system. Additionally, both SREF and GEFS plumes were reviewed for analyzing total QPF .

    At the 250-mb plot, the slight ridge that has developed over northern Missouri will begin to flatten out by 12Z Friday leaving behind zonal flow for the majority of the forecast period. A positively tilted trough will begin to develop to the west which will impact our weather later on throughout the week.

    At 500-mb, the upper-level ridge is over Missouri, the LPS is approaching from the west. This system will be weakening over the weekend, though the circulation will be still supporting the system not to dissipate entirely. The NAM40 suggests that there will be another LPS developing over North Dakota by Sunday 12Z and will make the atmosphere cloudy over mid-Missouri.

    At 700-mb level, the low-level moisture content will be transported from the Gulf of Mexico Friday morning wetting the atmosphere. Isotropic analysis highlights high values of relative humidity along with the forcing necessary to bring the region precipitation over the weekend.

    The 850-mb chart suggests that Missouri will be under the influence of polar air masses during the weekend contributing to temperature decrease. Winds will transition from southerly direction on Friday to the northwest on Saturday morning after frontal passage.

    At the surface, a weak baroclinic atmosphere will be seen in this forecast period. Starting from Friday 21Z, stratiform precipitation is likely through Sunday morning. Sunday morning NAM soundings suggests fog by 17Z. 

 

    The next forecast period should take note of positively tilted trough and the effects it can have on our future weather.