This forecast was generated using the 06z run of the NAM. Our main feature driving our weather over the next couple of days is a frontal boundary that has drifted off to our south overnight on Wednesday.
At the 250-mb level we remain under the influence of a ridge on Thursday morning. This ridge has our upper level flow directed out of the southwest. Currently, there is a jet streak situated over much of the United States with the core of the jet located over the Great Lakes region. Its location places Missouri near the right entrance region of the jet. While divergence can be expected for this quadrant of the jet streak, the bulk of the divergence is to our south and east. As the jet streak moves out of the area late Thursday afternoon, we can expect to see an area of slight divergence as a trough begins to replace the ridge, shifting our winds to a more WNW direction as another jet streak begins to move into our area from the north.
The line of circulation that went through our area overnight Wednesday has moved out of the area providing some respite to the rain. However, more vorticity at the 500-mb level can be expected to be advected into Central MO on Thursday afternoon. These values
(~25*105 s-1) should not be as high or as long lasting as those we saw overnight Wednesday, though. Very slight amounts of vorticity can be seen over Missouri on Friday afternoon, but it should not be anything to cause concern.
Our area as been drying out at the 700-mb level this Thursday morning. This level will remain dry through Friday evening when we will receive an influx of moisture from our north. This moisture will be delivered to our area by the arrival of the jet that will move through the upper Plains States.
The 850-mb level is much of the same story. We will continue to dry out over the course of the day on Thursday. The dry conditions can be expected to stick around through the end of the forecast period. The vertical motion that accompanied the rain overnight on Wednesday has also moved out of our area. The winds at this level will be out of the north which will contribute to the drying trend that we will see over the next couple of days.
It will be a nice opportunity to finally enjoy some dry weather on the weekend which we haven't seen for some weeks. Future forecasters should look at the progression of the low pressure system sitting over Texas as its movement could dictate the weather for later in the weekend.