Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 60-64
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy, clouds increase into the overnight hours.
Wednesday - Mostly sunny, clouds clearing in the morning hours. High: 58-62
Wednesday Night - Mostly clear, breezy at times. Low: 34-38
Thursday - Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late PM. High: 58-62
Temperatures today are going to be much cooler than yesterday. Mid-Missouri had a dry cold front move into the area, giving us temperatures for the next few days just under the seasonal average. Our best opportunity to see temperatures in the low to mid 60’s out of this forecasting period will be today. Wind will be coming out of the northwest giving us the possibility to warm up a few degrees higher than the coming days. Headed into tonight and Wednesday, there could be a possibility for rain in south Missouri. As winds switch from the northwest to the north that bulk of rain will remain south and Mid-Missouri should stay dry. Early morning hours on wednesday will start out mostly cloudy, but will clear out by sunrise. Wednesday night, winds will be directly coming from the north allowing us to drop into the middle 30’s overnight. By Thursday moisture increases giving us some low level clouds passing through, other then we will remain dry.
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For this forecast, a general blend of the 06z NAM, 11z HRRR, 06z GFS, and the SREF ensembles was used. The primary focus for this forecast is temperatures as they slightly shift through the period and how the winds play a role in this shift. With a zonal pattern through the next few days the possibility to see rain for the mid-Missouri area remains low.
Today, at 250-mb heights and winds, there is just a slight ridging pattern sitting over Missouri. At 500-mb there is an occluded low pressure system that is sitting Wisconsin and Michigan. The majority of circulation that is associated with that low pressure system. For the most part for today any lift that is present will remain in southern Missouri. Missouri is lacking moisture at 925mb. When looking at 06z NAM soundings it shows a backing motion with height. This can indicate that Missouri will be experiencing cold air advection.
Headed into tonight, the ridging pattern at 250-mb will begin to become more zonal as the occluded low pressure system moves a bit south east. This will help switch the winds from north/northwest to primarily north. Into the overnight hours there is a system to the south of Missouri that will be bringing in rain. This will not quite reach mid-Missouri as winds quickly switch from the north pushing that system even farther south. But this system in southern Missouri will bring into our area Moisture at 925-mb and some slight uplift. This is just enough to bring in clouds to give mid-Missouri mostly cloudy skies in the overnight hours. Clearing will start to take place by sunrise on Wednesday. Wednesday will be a pretty quiet day as the zonal pattern continues. Cold air advection will continue, yet not as strong as the previous day.
Wednesday night, temperatures are going to drop into the middle 30’s. As the occluded low pressure system moves east, this will leave Missouri in a through like pattern. Winds will be directly coming from the north. Winds will also be picking up and can be breezy at times throughout the night. These stronger winds will help prevent mid-Missouri from falling into the lower 30’s overnight. For Thursday, the trough pattern will continue, again there will be a lack in vertical motion and moisture. This gives us the ingredients to see below seasonable temperature for Wednesday going into Thursday. Everything will remain dry, there could be a few possible clouds passing, yet for the most part things will remain sunny for this forecast period.
Future forecasters need to keep an eye out for Thursday night as moisture and lift start to rise. Another low pressure system will be making its way into the area giving Friday into Friday evening the next best chance for rain.
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