Get outside today and enjoy the nice weather, temperatures are going to warm up into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. This is due to a high pressure system that is sitting off to our south east. As the day progresses clouds are going to start to increase, southerly winds that we will be experiencing today will help push up moisture into our area. Headed into tonight, the possibility for rain will start to increase. There is a low pressure system that is located in western Kansas that will start to make its way into the mid Missouri area. The possibility for rain really starts to increase by Wednesday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms roll into the area into the morning hours. Behind that line of showers and thunderstorms there is going to be a second round. This second round will start to make its way into the area after 12pm. We can not rule out spot showers between these two lines of storms, but if we do see any dry time with peaks of sun between this could increase the chances for the second round to be stronger. Make sure to stay weather aware as these showers and thunderstorms move through the area. The probability for any severe weather remains low, yet can not be ruled out. By 7pm the majority of the rain will make its way out of the area as the frontal passage makes its way through. Wednesday night looks to be dry for the most part but a spot shower can not be ruled out. For Thursday cooler temperatures as winds will be coming out of the northwest, and possible lingering showers throughout the day.
For this forecast the 12z NAM and the 13z HRRR were the primary models that were used. They have been verifying with previous forecasts. The HRRR was grasping current temperatures for this morning better than the NAM and GFS, so it was primarily used for forecasting temperatures. The NAM has been verifying with the set up of the low pressure system that will start making its way into Missouri by Wednesday.
Today, at 250-mb Missouri is currently sitting in a ridge like pattern. This ridge like pattern is becoming more pronounced as the trough in colorado starts to push southeast. At 500-mb there is lack of circulation. At 700-mb omega there is some lift that increases in the afternoon hours, yet this is slight. Southerly winds will help push moisture up into Missouri, but depending on how much lift is present will also depend on how much temperatures will rise throughout the day. With increasing clouds temperatures could max out in the upper 70’s. If there is a lack of lift to create these clouds temperatures could very well top out in the lower 80’s for this afternoon. Conditions for today will be breezy with winds coming out of the south between 15-25kts. Headed into tonight, At 250-mb the trough with a low pressure system associated with it will start to make its way into northwestern Kansas. The bulk of omega will move in by 03z Wednesday. The bulk of humidity will move in by 09z Wednesday. This could give the possibility of light rain showers tonight.
Wednesday, There are two separate times that there will be significant vertical lift passing through missouri. The first line is at 12z Wednesday, the second line will be passing through at 21z Wednesday. MUCAPE values will continue to increase throughout the day. These values could range between 1000-2000 J/kg. The best possibility for any severe weather will correlate with the second line of storms that moves through around 21z Wednesday. Currently the SPC has Missouri located in a marginal risk for Wednesday. Dew Points for the day are going to be around 56-62 degrees which is also a good indicator for potential severe weather. Future forecasters need to keep an eye out on the system for tomorrow afternoon. As models are updating it looks to be increasing the possibility for severe weather. In the past 24 hours MUCAPE values have jumped from 500-800 J/Kg to now 1000-2000 J/Kg. Timing still needs to be observed as the HRRR is grasping this system the best, but has not produced a model that goes out far enough to capture timing. So this observation is mainly based on the 12z NAM.
Wednesday night, the bulk of the precipitation will move out around 00z Thursday. The core of the low pressure system at 00z Thursday will be located over the Kansas city area. At 850-mb the core of the low pressure system at 00z Thursday will also be located over the Kansas city area indicating that it is no longer negatively tilted. With this low pressure system there is a cold front associated with it that will be passing through the mid Missouri area around 00z Thursday, this will bring more seasonable like temperatures for Thursday.