Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday- Showers and isolated thunderstorms. High: 54-58

Friday Night- Rain showers and thunderstorms . Low: 48-52

Saturday- Showers in the morning dissipating in the afternoon. High: 60-64 

Saturday Night- Clearing cloud cover. Low: 40-44

 

 

Sunday - Sunny and clear. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

The main focus for this forecasting period is the low-pressure system that will effect our region for both Friday and Saturday. causing both a decrease in temperatures, as well as, precipitation. Additionally, we will be at risk for isolated thunderstorms with expected total rainfall values falling in between 0.5-0.75 inches. For Sunday, winds will transition to the southeast bringing clear skies and sunny warm temperatures with it.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Ozdas

Issued: 10:00AM CST 23 April 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

    For this forecasting period the GFS20 was selected based off its improved tracking of currently occurring surface low pressure system and portrayal of initial temperature conditions. Furthermore, both GEFS and SREF plumes were analyzed for forecasting temperatures and QPF.

 

    At the 250-mb level, an upper level trough currently located in the Southern Plains will begin to push northeast into our region resulting in increased divergence aloft serving as a key driving force for convergence and precipitation at the surface. Saturday this trough and associated surface low pressure will move east and out of our region as a slight ridge over the Middle Mississippi Valley will begin to replace it.

    Within the 500-mb plot of vorticity and heights, Friday a vorticity maximum in southern Missouri is embedded inside of deep trough supporting our chances of active weather and precipitation. By 21Z Saturday, these higher vorticity values will push east into the Ohio Valley leaving our region fairly clear for the remainder of this forecasting period. 

 

    For 700-mb our region will stay highly saturated for the majority of Friday. However, the GFS20 is showing a brief pause within this moisture content from 15Z to 21Z Friday only for the moisture to return for the majority of Saturday. For the remainder of the forecasting period, the atmosphere dries out and remains clear of any substantial moisture values.

 

    Looking at the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature it is important to mention we are currently under the effects of a southwesterly low-level jet which is advecting increased moisture to our region and providing our atmopshere with a required ingredient for expected showers. Sunday these wind patterns will become more southeasterly resulting in increased temperatures for our local region. 

 

The next forecasting period should continue to track the positively tilted trough seen at the 250-mb level and the low-pressure system associated with it.